Opposition politicians are exposing themselves to ‘friendly fire’.  Offering separate presidential candidates, they are pitched against each other, dividing their strength in a self-defeatist mien.  Uniting behind one candidate could give them victory over the PDP.  Chances are their pride and greed won’t let them collaborate.  The allure of power and its tantalizing loot may be too much for most of them to give up.  Aso Rock beckons!

A common presidential candidate could be the opposition’s greatest weapon in defeating the PDP.  As things stand now, the PDP is ahead, if a Thisday “exit poll” is to be believed.   Published 11 March 2007, the newspaper’s report gave the PDP a clear win.  The report may not be far off the truth.  ThisDay did not, but I include rigging in the prediction.  

To ignore the PDP’s propensity to rig is impossible.  Remember the electoral machine found in Ibadan ‘strongman’ Adedibu’s house? Who has been arrested, prosecuted and convicted for that crime?  Who has refuted former army chief Malu’s claim that the PDP used the military to rig the 2003 elections?  Can a leopard change its spots?

Alright, note this: two types of people determine who ‘wins’ Nigerian elections.  They are: (1) legitimate voters and (2) election riggers.  For more on this perspective, see President by Default.  Right now, it would seem the PDP has a preponderance of both categories.  I could be wrong, especially with the Abubakar factor. 

It is unlikely that the VP was not part of the PDP electoral machinations.  It is hard to believe that he did not transfer those ‘skills’ to his new party.  Maybe that is why the PDP is so bent on taking him off the ballot!  Let’s wait and see.

According to ThisDay, anyhow, “if the elections were held today, PDP will most likely secure outright victory in 16 states. The states are Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Bayelsa, Delta, Ogun, Oyo, Anambra, Osun, Kebbi, Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Bauchi, Gombe and Kaduna States.”  Is it me, or did I just count 15 states in that quote?  Maybe Katsina went MIA.  Anyway, never mind!

The report continued: “The party will equally make strong showings in almost all the 36 states with its presidential candidate, Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar' Adua likely to secure the constitutionally-required one-third of the votes cast in over 30 states at the first ballot.
PDP which in the 2003 elections produced 28 governors will however have the AC and ANPP to contend with in some of the states it won clearly in 2003.”

If this projection is correct, I can’t help but wonder why the opposition parties haven’t changed their disoriented strategies.  Maybe they know something and they aren’t telling.  Maybe another “exit poll” by ThisDay’s would vindicate their divided stance.  Yet, Gen Buhari, VP Abubakar, Gov. Kalu and Prof. Utomi seem bound to dissipate the ‘opposition vote’. 

Of those opposed to the PDP, moreover, there is a limit to their numbers.  In a state with a popular governor like Duke, for instance, PDP opponents appear scarce.  Gov. Duke reportedly told Yar’Adua he didn’t even need to campaign there!  With the anti-PDP support scattered among so many opposition candidates, the PDP may not have to worry much.  The opposition is like a boat with too many captains, confused in direction and headed for a shipwreck!

The burning question is why can’t the opposition politicians come together and trounce the PDP?  Greed, ambition, pride and incompetence just about cover all the reasons for this travesty! 

What is quite glaring is the almost imperceptible difference between the PDP and its opponents.  Their ideas and actions are almost indistinguishable.  Utomi is a possible exception but his campaign appears to have fizzled out.  His performance thus far raises questions about his ability to navigate the treacherous terrain of Nigerian politics. 

If competence is in question even with Utomi, then our troubles have grown much taller.  Effectively, that means there is not much to separate the other candidates from the PDP’s.  I hear a lot of words: promises and boasts.  But I see no evidence they would do better than the PDP. 

Their incompetence in organizing a credible opposition to the PDP pretty much overrides their claims to be any better.  Hey, they may surprise me and come together: there isn’t much time though.  Such a volte-face may be hastened by a Supreme Court’s endorsement of the Vice President’s ban.  Other events unforeseen may also come into play. 

The question remains though: what sacrifices are these opposition candidates ready to make for Nigeria?  Words are fine but show me some action!  I challenge the candidates to put aside their bickering and come behind one candidate.  After all, they all say the PDP has been terrible.   Except, of course, each politician believes he is the only one that can solve Nigeria’s problems.  What arrogance!

When will God deliver us from conceited men who think they alone can save Nigeria?  This is unfortunate.  I just hope these people get their acts together.  Let’s continue to watch and pray!

(fredlintaz@yahoo.com)

For other articles by this writer, please click here.

Robot  Villager

# 1 Opposition politicians are exposing themselves to ‘friendly fire’. Offering separ...Read the full article. Posted by Robot| 05.04.2007 16:50

Shoko Loko Bangoshe  Villager

# 2 Interesting article as usual, Fred. I'm afraid that it's easier for the opposition to talk of uniting than for them to actually do it. I think the biggest problem is that the organisation of the opposition parties is a shambles compared to that of the PDP. ANPP which used to be credible has suffered several high profile defections and a party split; the AC which might have been credible was formed too late to establish itself against the PDP. (Personally, if I were the AC leaders, I would have gone for a placeholder candidate for presidency while Abubakar sorted his troubles out - as things stand now, doubts about whether he will stand will seriously affect his party's chances.) Posted by Shoko Loko Bangoshe| 05.04.2007 19:11

gwobezentashi  Villager

# 3 @ SLB (Personally, if I were the AC leaders, I would have gone for a placeholder candidate for presidency while Abubakar sorted his troubles out - as things stand now, doubts about whether he will stand will seriously affect his party's chances.) 20/20 hindsight is always wonderful. Your first para made the case and you are right on the money about the effects of the uncertainties but they are man made (or OwuBalogun made) and cannot be helped. Afterall did Aremu pay Lagos all their money even after the Supreme Court ruled definitively? Fact is Obasanjo(not Iwu) is disqualifying anyone that can credibly challenge his cronies. This is the tragedy and why we are heading for anarchy. Don't you get this surreal freefalling feeling like we had when the 5 fingers of a leprous hand adopted Abacha? PDPs last jamboree felt like Kanu's 2m man march. It was parading some of the same characters afterall. Aluta! Gwobezentashi Posted by gwobezentashi| 05.04.2007 19:33

ithinkbetter  Villager

# 4 flawed constitution begets dubious/diabolical operational procedures/systems. attendant circumstance of event of happenings as we're witnessing in Nigeria - bad, they are, no question, are the products of bad seeds we impregnated - you don't sow apple and expect to harvest orange! :D :D :D Posted by ithinkbetter| 05.04.2007 20:35

fredlintaz  Villager

# 5 Updated ThisDay polls: Buhari, Yar’Adua in Photo-finish By Tunde Rahman, 04.08.2007 With more Nigerians taking positions one way or another, THISDAY Polls being compiled from across the country show that Nigeria may be headed for a photo-finish in the April 21 presidential election. While former Head of State and All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) presidential candidate, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari, has the lead in most Northern states with high percentage of votes, the Peoples Democrat-ic Party (PDP) candidate and Katsina State Governor, Alhaji Umaru Yar' Adua, has the spread in the South-west, South-east, South-south and North-central. To win the election, a candidate needs absolute majority and “not less than one-quarter of the votes cast in each of at least two-thirds of all the states in the Federation and Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja.” In the nationwide polls, Yar' Adua has 29 per cent, Buhari has 27 per cent while Vice President Atiku Abuba-kar has 24 per cent; all within the margin of errors of plus or minus four. The Peoples Progressive Alliance (PPA) presidential candidate and Abia State Governor Orji Uzor Kalu has four per cent. Other candidates share the balance of 16 per cent. Looking beyond the numbers, the polls show that Buhari has a good lead in a number of the North-west and North-east states except Sokoto (1,409,337 voters) and Borno (2,191,902 voters), which are too close to call and Katsina (2,589,047 voters) leaning towards Yar’Adua. Buhari leads a three-way race in Kano with Atiku and Yar’Adua sharing with him the state’s 4,072,597 plum voters. However, the ANPP candidate (Buhari) leads in Bauchi (2,211,463 voters), Jigawa (1,722,352 voters), Gombe (1,410,234 voters), Yobe (996,380 voters), Zamfara (1,330,573 voters) and Kebbi (1,345,047 voters), where Yar’Adua appears to be gaining support. On his part, Yar' Adua leads in all the South-south states of Rivers (2,585,317 voters), Cross Rivers (1,139,735 voters), Akwa Ibom (1,40-8,197 voters), Bayelsa (955,-278 voters), Delta (1,626, 930) and Edo (1,345,410 voters ). The PDP candidate's lead, however, is checkmated by Atiku in South-east and South-west states where the duo go almost neck -to- neck in many states. In the South-east, Yar'Adua leads in Imo (1,372,975 voters), Anambra (1,844,819 voters), Enugu (1,201,697 voters), Ebonyi (929,375 voters) and shares points with the Peoples Progressive Alliance (PPA) presidential candidate, Governor Orji Kalu, in Abia (1,365,641 voters) whilst Atiku has a slim lead over Yar'Adua in Osun (1,297, 297 voters). Yar'Adua however has a commanding lead in Kwara (1,216,478 voters), Kogi (1,479, 834 voters) and Taraba (1,173,514 voters) and is in a close race with Buhari in Niger (1,551,903 voters), Nasarawa (1,001,423 voters) and Kaduna (3,374,245 voters) Following the polls, Atiku's lead is strong in Adamawa (1,315,950 voters) and Plateau (1,602, 530 voters) and he is also a strong second across the country. Should he be on the ballot, though indications are that the vice president may have been barred, his impact may determine who wins as he will take votes away from Buhari in the North and Yar'Adua in the South. Atiku's impact may even be stronger if he does not run. In the North, his exclusion may engender protest votes against PDP which could see his votes going to Buhari. In the South however, his not being on the ticket may see his votes going to Yar'Adua, according to THISDAY findings. Thus, the election may be lost and won by two factors-turn out and the margins of victory in the North in the case of Buhari and in the South in the case of Yar'Adua-. For if a state returns a high margin for any candidate one way or the other, it may be difficult to close the gap as the elections are extremely tight and turn out may be the key to victory. On possible rigging, THISDAY findings are that it may be limited as the voting system is alien to many grassroots politicians and may thus take a few elections before they can master the art of manipulating it. If election materials arrive polling stations on time and voters and party agents wait out the entire process, then the poll may prove difficult to manipulate. Another trend observed by THISDAY findings is that Buhari has the support of the grassroots in the North with leaders and elders, depending on their political persuasions, leaning more towards Yar' Adua or Atiku. According to one of the pollsters, Buhari's support base is rock solid in the grassroots and low income groups and as you go up the ladder, it is a bit more tenous especially among the political elite. Yar'Adua's strongest support base is in the South-south and North-central. But in the main stream South-west, its "tourch and go." In the South-east, religion is still a factor and that is where Yar'Adua has his edge over Buhari as the ANPP candidate has not been able to break that perception that he is a religious hardliner. Voters in the South-east still have their fears and concerns about Buhari's religious credentials. In the governorship election, many states are too close to call. See the Inside pages for details. Posted by fredlintaz| 08.04.2007 05:03

fredlintaz  Villager

# 6 Very well said, Prof! Daily Champion: Monday April 16, 2007 I won’t fight for presidency at all costs –Utomi I am the best choice for president but I will not fight for the Presidency at all costs". ADC Presidential Candidate, Professor Pat Utomi has declared while speaking to newsmen on Wednesday, en-route Abuja to confer with other politicians. Prof. Utomi stated that he went into politics with three prime objectives in mind. These objectives were, first, "to create a credible alternative opposition to the PDP, whether or not the PDP has failed" said Utomi, "so as to lead and teach Nigerians the value of opposition in the true traditions of democracy". "Second" continues the erudite candidate, "we wished to positively impact on the internal over-bureaucratisation of political parties, which has resulted in our not getting the best possible candidates for political positions". Third, Utomi asserts, he ventured into the political arena "to drive the long overdue social, political and economic transformation of Nigeria". "In furtherance of my first objective", says Utomi, "we are collaborating with all opposition parties, including AC, ANPP, Labour etc, to ensure that our dreams come true this month". In answer to the question of who will be flagbearer of the mooted "granite coalition", he said he has not at this point called for any particular person to be the chosen one, but pointed out that "I would be the rational choice, for I am the best choice, and the choice of all Nigerians clamouring for positive change". Utomi exhibited his characteristic patriotism, however, when he added that "if, given objective criteria, some other candidate were to emerge, I will not let my ego stand in the way of the greater good". Posted by fredlintaz| 16.04.2007 01:02