Shadows of a Coup   

By Fred Igbeare          

The stone-faced colonel paused briefly to adjust the microphone.  He nodded curtly towards the trembling studio engineer.  This was the signal to go live for the speech.  Martial music stopped its assault on the midnight airwaves. “Fellow countrymen,” he began, “I bring you . . .” The lights went out as angry voices screamed curses.  Loyal troops burst in to cut short the maiden broadcast of a would-be dictator!!

Another military putsch is one drama many Nigerians don’t want.  The belief that it would not happen again may be misplaced.  Shadows of a coup, the warning signs are piling up like a medley in a steaming pot of woes.

A restless public chafing from economic hardships forms the base for this medley.  Picture the pot of woes as it sizzles with the coarse war between the president and his deputy.  Throw into that pot the widespread anxieties about the upcoming presidential elections.  Add the loaded words of Lt. General Owoye Azazi about ‘pressures’ on the military and this stuff is peppered up for disquieting possibilities.  

Visualize in this coalescing broth the shadowy figures orchestrating these ‘pressures’.  They are the political mercenaries who intersperse the murky terrain of our polity.  Mix them up with the ‘militricians’ in the army waiting for the opportunity to strike.  Combine all these with the Niger-Delta quandary, the fiery religious bigotry and the perpetual ethnic tensions. What you end up with is a coup-maker’s dream dish.      

Thai army chief Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin has been cooking.  He just served up a spicy Thai dish by sacking his country’s civilian government.  The general seems to have had less stuff to work with than a budding Nigerian coup-maker would find today.  Things can’t be as bad in Thailand as they are in Nigeria, true?  The general thinks Thai politicians are corrupt; let him come to Nigeria!    

His Nigerian counterpart is not cooking—not as far as we know anyway.  Some of Gen Azazi‘s colleagues may have eyes on the ‘Thai’ menu though.  This general indeed appears to be the ‘anti-cook’.  In a visit to Ibadan, he warned his troops to resist the temptation of ‘constan pressures’ on the military (ThisDay 13^th Sept 2006).  On the nature and sources of the 'pressures', the army boss didn’t say but his message was clear.      

Those behind the ‘pressures’ want the army back into politics because soldiers still control the dominant firepower in the land.  Firepower can translate quickly into political power.  These people prefer to rule by force instead of through electioneering where misdeeds and competencies get exposed easily.  Their hubris in this venture is buoyed by the lack of unanimity in the Nigerian opposition to dictatorship.  ‘Thai’ food has its fans, even in Nigeria where the brutalizing gang of military regimes should have made people wiser.    

These political mercenaries pressuring the military are dangerous.  Indistinguishable from those plying murder as part of their political repertoire, these folks would do anything to survive.  For them, the power game may soon be over.  Their opportunities for gaining or maintaining access to the ‘looters treasury’ are dissipating fast as Ribadu and company squeeze tighter.  As their desperation level rises, so does their penchant for causing havoc in a country struggling to stay afloat.  

As if events weren’t grim enough, the country gets smacked with a tragic plane crash.  My deepest condolences go to the families of the dead officers; may God provide solace for them!  Their deaths could be a drag on the military’s quest for professionalism. The deceased officers are said to have played special roles in depoliticizing the army.  Even if the crash didn’t come from mischief, something isn’t right.  The rationale for putting that many key officers on the same flight is scary.  

Days before the crash, Gen Azazi had told newsmen that the army was well-prepared to deal with threats to the county’s democracy.  Assuming he is correct, that assertion increases hope for a depoliticized military.  If he is wrong, we are seriously cooked—hopefully not!  

A test may soon arise for the general’s confidence in the army’s ability to aid and not supersede civilian authority.  Imagine this scenario in the near future: conniving officers order troops to sack an elected government.  The professionals among them refuse to obey this ‘unlawful order’.  In the ensuing battle, the loyalists defeat the coup-plotters.  What a surprise that would be!  In the past, soldiers have found it hard to resist the mouth-watering bounties from political appointments.  Old habits die hard, you know.   

Another military coup in Nigeria would be ill-advised.  As in the past, one may lead to others.  With the potential to acerbate separatism, a coup could splinter the country into limitless bits.  The Nigerian Army may have more firepower now, but other groups, I suspect, have been beefing-up for differing reasons!  Armed conflict doesn’t guarantee clear winners, but signifies more pain for the abused masses.  It could erase our chances of ever repairing the damages from so many years of misrule.     

We need to navigate this kitchen cautiously or we may wind up cooking our own doom.  Anything other than democracy on the menu is unacceptable.  Is anyone still up for ‘Thai’ food?    

Robot  Villager

# 1 Shadows of a Coup By Fred Igbeare ...Read the full article. Posted by Robot| 28.09.2006 07:49

Anynymous

# 2 Nonsense.............No sense in this piece. Please no instigation. Posted by Anynymous| 28.09.2006 15:09

Umunna  JJC

# 3 Great piece Fred, Of course it may take more than the average to grasp. Constant with your submissions, many Nigerians may wish for the military again: the depth of curruption and official stealing going on today dwarf anything we had seen in the past and poses an almost legitimate tempt. And yes, the dynamics are different this time giving that Nigeria is now a land filled with blood tasty militant groups. Any clash amongst these two powers (the military against the unyielding militants) would unleash the dragon of death yet ever seen since the civil war. Let us all pray that this apparent looming dooms day is averted forever....Amen Posted by Umunna| 28.09.2006 16:37

ajis15  Villager

# 4 Please keep this thought to yourself. There will never be a coup in Nigeria again. Never!!Those bastards and illeterates will never run our affairs again. We are yet to get out of the chaos they created. The corrupt and venal class created by the military are the ones running our affairs, we are still looking for ways to get them off our back. Please not not come to the square with this kind of thought again. Posted by ajis15| 29.09.2006 17:30

BLF  Villager

# 5 Better heed the warning.Ignore it at your own peril.Time and again such hints have been dropped by governments such as the US.My fear is that this time around it will lead to a free- for- all chaos,the magnitude of which will make other such events look like a school yard prank. It will happen,trust me.How it will end is anybody's guess.Stay tuned. Posted by BLF| 29.09.2006 19:38