President by Default

By Fred Igbeare

In the class of 2007, who is most likely to be president?  Barring some dramatic upset, all major signals point to Governor Umar Musa Yar’Adua.  The man is set to get the crown not because of his superior leadership qualities.  He is set not because he has a better agenda for improving the lives of Nigerians.  He seems set to be president because the Nigerian opposition is too disoriented and disunited to offer a potent alternative. 

A divided opposition is easily defeated.  The PDP must be ecstatic!  With possible exceptions, the opposition presidential candidates don't inspire much confidence.  On two counts, they are mostly discouraging: 1) their abilities to 'win' elections, and 2) their solutions for Nigeria's pressing problems.  Let’s consider each category.

To Win Nigerian Elections:

In Nigeria, there are two types of people that determine who wins elections: 1) legitimate voters, and 2) election riggers.  The reality is that anyone who hopes to rule Nigeria must convince a preponderance of both types of people to 'win' a presidential election.  This is not an advocacy for election rigging.  It is just a reflection of the Nigerian reality. 

Some of the presidential candidates like Muhammadu Buhari or Pat Utomi may not be willing to deploy or even encourage election riggers.  Very good, and that is a plus for them.  Beyond that stance unfortunately, they and the other opposition personalities don't seem to have a coherent anti-rigging plan.  If they devise such a plan, maybe they could help ensure a free and fair election.  I am not holding my breath.

To Solve Nigerian's Problems:

Which of the presidential candidates can truly lead Nigeria out of it myriad problems?  Let's take a look at some of them. I've already put in my take on Yar’Adua, so I won't bother much with him here (see Yar 'Adua's World).

Atiku Abukakar: our vice president's biggest quality seems to be his courageous opposition to his boss. Beyond that, it is hard to see what he can do for the common citizens of Nigeria. He has had eight years as deputy leader to prove his competence, and doesn’t have much to show for it. 

It is almost impossible for him to disassociate himself from the Obasanjo administration since he is still the vice president and has not resigned.  Alright, I give him some credit for opposing the third-term agenda. In that acerbic tenure elongation debate, he came across though as an opportunist (which he may not be). 

Don't get me wrong, Abubakar's war with the president may turn out to be one of the turning points in the long-term sustenance of our democracy. But the picture portrayed of him is that of a man who desires power just because he thinks he deserves it! 

Saying Abubakar is corrupt is a no-brainer, maybe slightly debatable.  There are very few Nigerian politicians anyway who can escape that categorization. Besides, the definition of what is 'corrupt' in Nigeria is a fascinating art form. Who knows, the vice president may yet convince Nigerians through the judicial process that he is clean.  Granted that he is legally innocent until proven guilty, the court of public opinion, however, is not so generous.

Muhammadu Buhari: his main claim to fame is that of being a political thief!  He stole power from a civilian government.  After his military coup, he made very little attempts to return power to the Nigerian people. Some may argue that he didn't organize the coup, but his subordinates did.  Well, well, you didn't see the general refusing the reins of power on democratic principles.

Even now, it is almost impossible to see Buhari stepping down for another opposition presidential candidate.  I would rather be proved wrong, but I’m not holding my breath. The man is arrogant enough to imagine he has some kind of birthright to rule Nigeria again!  And when he did rule, he was a blatant tyrant! Up till now, Buhari has not apologized for his brutish military rule: or did I miss something? 

His greatest legacy is that he stood by helplessly or incompetently as a string of demon-class dictators succeeded him in power. He encouraged an environment that enabled Ibrahim Babangida and Sanni Abach to misrule Nigeria. To say he was edged out doesn’t say much about his competency as a leader.  Anyway, who is to say he won't succumb to another military coup if he becomes president? 

There is also this amazing fairy tale about Buhari.  They say he is not corrupt!  Tell me: what do you call a political thief?  A political bandit is the king of all thieves, the capo di tutti capi. Political corruption is the grandmother of corruption in Nigeria. Buhari cannot absolve himself. 

The armed robbers of Nigeria may even take moral consolation in the fact that the worst forms of thievery have been committed through military banditry in Nigeria.  Any wonder the armed robbers are so prevalent today?  Any wonder that they operate with impunity matched only by their fellow robbers in government?  

With the active and tacit approval of Buhari, the military was hijacked to prey on helpless citizens and commit atrocities.  The likes of Buhari should bow their heads in shame and beg for our forgiveness.

Pat Utomi: of all the presidential candidates, this one may have the intellectual capacity to address Nigeria's problems.  One of his biggest handicaps though is convincing the common people on the streets that he is the man for the job.  Intellectuals are not the only voters in Nigeria.  And those of them who are riggers could care less about Pat Utomi’s intellect.

For the common voters who are steeped in illiteracy and are easily enticed by instant gratification, Utomi may appear as a phantom, an idea that is too hazy to grasp.  Many of the commoners are rather drawn to the leadership style of anti-intellectuals like Lamidi Adedibu.  His type inescapably intersperse the Nigerian political landscape.  They appear to control its processes and outcomes.

Utomi is left with the unenviable task of convincing people like Adedibu and his supporters to vote or rig for him. The professor may not even want the support of such people. That leaves him with an amazingly small pool of supporters.  And that is the tragedy of Nigeria!

On the whole, absent the opposition parties coming behind a common candidate and developing a ‘winnable’ electoral strategy, we might all as well start offering our congratulations to President Umar Yar'Adua!  He may end up surprising everyone including his benefactor OBJ!   

Who knows, the man may eventually produce the results Nigeria needs.  On this possibility, I may just be hoping against hope.  I am most certainly not holding my breath!

(fredlintaz@yahoo.com)

Robot  Villager

# 1 President by Default By Fred Igbeare In the class o...Read the full article. Posted by Robot| 06.02.2007 23:06

olusola  Villager

# 2 A good analysis. I believe the PDP will win the presidency once again.It is the only party that has what it takes to win the presidential election. I always know that the greed and shortsightedness of the opposition will never allow them to do well in the forthcoming elections. Atiku has no agenda,he is just an opportunist and a very greedy politician.We have all seen how he has been insulting the sensibilities of Nigerians by dissociating himself from the failures of this administration,but always quick to claim credit for any achievement of the same administration.He has become so desperate by endangering national security with his reckless pronouncements . We can see all those milling around him in the AC.We all know the kind of man is Tom Ikimi.We are all aware of the greed of Abubakar Rimi.Here was a man attacking the Obj government right and left but was still chairing the Nigerian Printing and Minting Company until he was probably forced to quit the position. He has never hidden his disdain and personal hatred for the President and his government.He has been fighting the president not on principle or lack of performance of the government,but simply because the president failed to make him his VP as he was alleged to have promised. His frustration grew to the highest level when he made his infamous declaration that he wanted Obj out by whatever means,even if it is a coup.That's the so-called progressive or democrat. The likes of Osoba,Akande,Lam Adesina are all frustrated politicians who have not been able to come to terms with their loss of power. Audu Ogbeh,who has been pretending to be a righteous man should come and tell Nigerians how he became PDP national chairman. Solomon Lar,Yahaya Kwande and many others are just in the AC because the PDP have made them redundant. The case of Tinubu is understandable.He has no where to go anymore.What has been his performance in Lagos? He has only been making noise,unproductively engaging the Federal government in needless battles. Has he explained to Lagosians why he wants to take 14 billion naira loans when he knows that his goverment has only few months to go. He has no good motive other than just to loot this money and use it to finance AC.He has been posting his commissioners and cronies to all the states in the southwest to run for governorship on the platform of AC,how does he get the money to do that.He is always quick to attack Obj and PDP for being undemocratic,but we have all seen the kangaroo primary elections that produced his stooge,Fashola, as AC guber candidate in Lagos.We can also see the troubles with the AC in other states of the southwest. For someone like Ghali Na Aba, it is clear that he is just seeking utopia where none exists. No wonder he lamented recently that the same evils he claimed the PDP represented are now the norms in the AC. He was lamenting after Rimi and his boys had manipulated the AC governorship primaries in Kano against him. As for Buhari,his arrogance will surely not lead him anywhere. He and his media managers were quick to condemn Soyinka for stating obvious facts,but they have not found it very convenient to disprove the facts or apologize to Nigerians and move on.How will a former head of state justify his attendance of Arewa meetings meant to promote ethno-regional interests? As for Pat Atomi and his ADC, I don't have to waste time on that because he's surely going nowhere. Besides,I have come to the conclusion that he is not in the race to win.He's only going to enrich his CV by adding the title of "a former presidential candidate" to it. Unless miracle happens, Yar A Dua and PDP are surely coasting home to victory. So, I think Nigerians should only be preparing their minds for what a Yar A Dua presidency will offer them. To those who think OBJ will hold him hostage,I think you will be making the greatest mistake.That a man is gentle,humble and of few words does not make him a weak person. I believe OBJ will not even have such a thing at the back of his mind,otherwise,he would be in for the shocker of his life. He must have learnt from the Chiluba/Nwanamasa tango in Zambia, the Mulisi/Mutarika face off in Malawi and also the local examples of Saraki/Lawal and Chimaroke/Nwobodo. As for fight against corruption,I have no doubt that Yar A Dua will do that.He's clean,at least no one has accused him of corruption so far.I believe only a corruption-free president can fight corruption at all levels.And if you think he will be prevented by the Transcorp millionaires, the PDP contractors and other moneybags supporting him, I believe we shall all be pleasantly amazed when the man will tell them like OBJ did,"all funds given should be regarded as donations to the party,and not an individual" Therefore,your excellency,Alhaji Umaru Yar A Dua, the next president of Nigeria, Nigerians are eagerly waiting to see what you have in stock for them! Posted by olusola| 07.02.2007 03:46

Shoko Loko Bangoshe  Villager

# 3 A very thoughtful article, Fred - one of the better ones I've seen around here. Posted by Shoko Loko Bangoshe| 08.02.2007 08:10

DeepThought  Villager

# 4 Interesting article which confirms my gloomy belief that Nigeria is beyond redemption by the current crop of madmen parading themselves as leaders. Nigeria is now predictably at the point that the led appear to be even crazier than the leaders. My own belief is that Nigeria will not be saved by politics and that it will get a lot worse before it gets better. I think it is necessary for the system to consume itself (and it will, one way or the other!) along with people like Adedibu, Atiku, IBB, Buhari, e.t.c before we can ever hope to see any sort of renaisance. Then perhaps, good people (Utomi? e.t.c)will emerge Maybe I should read about this Pat Utomi guy and put him in my list of possible good leaders but for now, my disdain for politics has led me to ignore him also, but he seems to be impressing some people. Posted by DeepThought| 08.02.2007 09:09