To understand fully the challenges facing President Yar Adua, one must identify the key issues that are likely to affect his role and place in Nigerian history. The first and most significant is his own legitimacy and credibility; the second is his ability to bring economic success to the Nigerian society; the third is his ability to build bridges between north and south, east and west.; the fourth is his ability to preserve the established Nigerian leadership in political and military matters affecting the West African region; the fifth are diplomatic and political challenges he faced at the continental level; the sixth set of challenges is to assume a respectable role in international affairs at the United Nations, the Commonwealth and elsewhere; the seventh set of challenges is his ability to build an effective bridge linking Nigerians at home and those at the Diaspora. These seven sets of challenges will be remembered as the major issues political pundits would later call the building blocks that make or unmake the Yar Adua presidency.                   

The Yar Adua presidency is a political child whose security is largely dependent on his neighborhood and the climate of opinion among the people who welcomed him into the dangerous Nigerian political landscape. His chances of survival will depend on the political alliances he maintained beyond his party and the spirit of Nigerian nationalism he cultivates and promotes. His first thousand days would be carefully scrutinized for signs and clues about his mission and his vision for the nation. There are several things to consider about his legitimacy and credibility. There is the lingering doubt about the fairness of the elections and the political violence that took many Nigerian lives and wreaks havoc throughout the country. In order for him to convince the Nigerian electorate about his election he must respond quickly to the comments made by both local and foreign critics of the elections. Certain remedial measures must be taken to convince the populace that he and his new team are serious about political change in Nigeria . Even though he is aware of the shortcomings of his elections, he should accept the lingering doubt about his rule and, like George Bush of the United States of America after the Florida hanging chads, he should move speedily for a new and less challenged reelection at the next presidential elections. Nigerians aware of the American electoral predicament would surely urge him to go way beyond the Bushian response to the 2000 elections and the implications it had for the American   Republic .

Supporters of Yar Adua are convinced the new President of Nigeria had already conceded to this reality and his rising legitimacy will be not come into being because he has miraculously weathered the political storm of the elections of April 2007, but because growing numbers of Nigerians are beginning to see a study in contrast between him and his predecessor. These differences in personality interestingly are going to softening the blows against his rule and forgivingly many Nigerians would give him the benefit of the doubt. If and when he persists in this direction, chances are President Yar Adua would make friends where former President Obasanjo angered or drove once loyal friends into deadly political enemies. Related to but strikingly different from the challenges of political legitimacy and credibility are the political moves he has to take in order to weather the storm. Here his reactions to the demands of the Ijaws and other ethnic minorities in the Delta region of the country become most explosive. Having inherited a political situation which has not only jeopardized Nigeria’s political and economic standing at home and abroad, but could also threaten his administration as a potential laughing stock in international affairs if any lack of serious agreement with the rebels of the Delta proved unstable and costly, the Yar Adua presidency is in at a crossroad

Banking heavily on the political and military initiatives of the previous government under President Obasanjo and working on the assumption that a vice president from the affected areas of the country could muster psychological strengthen unavailable to him or his predecessor, Yar Adua is hoping, perhaps against hope, that the collective interests of the affected peoples of Nigeria could be rationalized and sufficiently addressed through visible and invisible deals with the most crucial elements. If this assumption is true, then one can see the possibility of peace in the Delta and the political leaders of that region would bring much of the national cake to the inhabitants of that area. Such possibilities are depended on the following state of affairs: (1). A  climate change that makes possible certain political maneuverings among the leaders and the led in this region of the country; (2) there must be a New Consensus among the ethic peoples of the region; (3) there must also be a common program of sustainable economic development for the poorer areas where life is miserable, ugly and deadly; (4) there must be a new federal ministry that addressed the needs of minorities within minorities. In order for the Yar Adua administration to resolve the legitimacy and credibility problem, it must appreciate the dangers from minority groups and the retarding effects of their marginalities. Through such a method his administration stands a better chance of advancing the frontiers of development in the Delta and beyond.

But if the problems of the Delta are going to preoccupy the Yar Adua presidency, then one must also identify the other questions that add to his challenges of leadership. Immediately related to the Delta question is the problem of transparency in elections and justice in public finance. These two issues are enveloped by the Delta issue. It is not a new problem; it goes back to the founding of the independent country of Nigeria . The Delta people have been pressing for the principle of derivation in public finance. In the field of public finance, the government could respond to the following principles in the use and allocation of national resources: equity, proportionality based on census figures, and derivation based on the issue of the revenue so distributed. Rather than getting their share of the natural resources located in their area, they have continued to live under regimes that have no interest in or concern for the welfare of their people on account of this principle. If the train of freedom is to move forward to carry the dissidents as well as other Nigerians interested in the resolution of the problem, then the decision of voters in the Delta region should not only help in the election of their local, state and federal leaders, but it should also serve as an effective link in the chain of Nigerian political unity.

Yar Adua would be lauded by future Nigerians if he and his team are able to address the public finance issue as well as the electoral challenges made known by the woes of the April results. What is going to make a difference here is the series of steps taken in the course of the next five years. The legitimacy and credibility question, as argued above, may benefit from the study in contrast between the sitting President and his immediate predecessor. It will also benefit from the image created by the new President in his interactions with the leaders and members of the civil societies in the country. The relationship with the labor movement and the civil service would be one part of the equation. The other half of this political equation will be his relationship with the media and the centers of higher learning. After having suffered humiliation and financial ruin from the aggressive actions of the military rulers and still struggling clumsily for a more stable and security ground of operation, many a school teacher or university professor would look up to their former colleague in the academy to be more sympathetic and responsive to their demands in terms of federal and state allocations of funding for education in the country. In their quest for proper settlement of the legitimacy and credibility issues many a Nigerian would demand from the former professor proper footing of financial matters and adequate and convincing sources that affirm transparency and fair play. Whether this will ensure in the final days of a one-term or two-term Yar Adua presidency only time will tell. Many Nigerians most probably would be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, not because they love and admire him here and now, but because in their view his faithfulness to their vision of a greater Nigeria in African and world affairs could bring into fruition the Nigerian Dream, much feared and hated abroad but still nurtured by millions on the Niger/Benue river banks.

Besides the legitimacy and credibility issue, there is also the question of bread and butter for the masses. Although Nigeria is a well endowed nation with mineral resources, particularly oil, her people have continued to suffer from poverty, diseases, corruption, economic underdevelopment and social and political marginality in world affairs.  Since independence succession governments have come up with a number of development policies and programs. Time and space do not allow me to go into detailed. However, for the purpose of this evaluation of the problems and prospects of Yar Adua Presidency, three national programs need some attention here. In the early days of independence when the country was divided into three major regions and political power rested in the hands of the three dominant ethnic groups in the North, The West and the East, the economic wand in the hands of the ruling class was palm oil, cocoa and groundnuts (peanuts for Americans). This agricultural situation contributed to the development plans of the leaders of the three respective regions and Nigerians of that time competed over agrarian performance and greater ability to derive profits from the world market. At that time the geopolitics of the country and the absence of oil as we now know made the public finance question radically different from what it is. In an age without OPEC and growing oil demands from the developed and developing nations, countries like Nigeria in the late 1950s and 60.s suffered from the benefits and limitations of the monoculture economy. Palm oil, cocoa and groundnut became the fighting soldiers to free Nigeria from the insulating forces of imperialism and capitalism. With the discovery and greater opportunities of oil, Nigeria migrated from an agrarian to an oil-dependent world. After the Civil War those who came to power after General Yakubu Gowan, undertook a Green Revolution. These were the days of Alhaji Shehu Shagari, the first civilian President who took power from General Olusegun Obasanjo.    

The Green Revolution under President Shagari failed because (1); monies were allocated for the revitalization of agriculture in the country, but the political strategies developed to empower the farming populations collapsed in the face of greed, poor planning and jurisdictional control. (2); the Green Revolution was the tragedy and pain of rural exodus and the crisis of urban transformation for Nigerian society. The growth in the population of cities and towns such as Lagos, Kano, Port Harcourt, Enugu, Aba, Benen and several other points in both the north and the south. The causes for this rural exodus were many and no single determinant could be put forward for one area that fits all others. Particularly striking was the crisis of young people with some modern education who yearned for a better life Nigerian towns and cities. Many of these men and women languished in their rural homelands without the much needed government support for training or loans to pursue a more fruitful and financially rewarding life on the farm.

But if the Green Revolution was an idea that came and went without impacting the Nigerian farming population, then one has to enquire about the other measures taken by the country to address the changed climate in both the political and economic situations in the country. Under the military dictatorships after the fall of the Shagari regime, the Nigerian government found itself battling with demands for more states and the allocation of government resources to the growing numbers of governors and state legislatures. Under this pattern of governance, particularly under President Babangida, the Nigerian polity became increasingly centralized even though the mantra abroad was federalism under military rule. The truth was certainly elsewhere. Not only did President Babangida increased the number of states to what it is now, but he  also introduce to the nation a development plan that was made in Washington D.C. by the World Bank. Known as SAP by Nigerians, and better known as Structural Adjustment Program by World Bank officials working in Nigeria , this strategy of development is now remembered as a dangerous prescription for the Nigerian people. Not only did it affect the economic system in the country, but it also led to the deterioration of the Nigerian currency. This financial collapse is still hurting millions of Nigerians today. The middle class members of this society lost their earnings and savings due to the gradually and rapidly fluctuating currency and the panic created by such a state of affairs gave rise to a brain drain. Nigeria lost many of her talents to the West and the Middle East .                                           

President Yar Adua comes to power inherited a malady from both his immediate predecessor and the military rulers of the past. With due respect to the former government, certain measures have been taken to correct the errors of the past government and to give some dignity to the Niara. This poor child of Nigerian greed and Nollywood flamboyance is a long way from the recovery center of Nigerian finance. Still dangling in the hundred and ten Niara to one U.S. dollar, this currency which used to be higher than the dollar is a downing man groping clumsily for the shore of hope and national certainty. Will Yar Adua be the life guard by the shore who could come to the rescue of this badge of Nigerian presence in international affairs? This leads me to the current debate about the denotation of the currency. Learning from the Ghanaian example with this economy venture, the Nigerian Central Bank under Segundo decided to take that route to self-dignify and price enumerating. If the Yar Adua administration is going to help the Nigerians as they battle daily for bread and butter, then the fixing of the currency and the price system would be as critical, if not more critical, than the Delta question. Indeed, one could argue here that the transparency in the electoral system, the need for immediate resolution of the Delta question and the food security of the country through responsible agricultural programs are indistinguishably lumped together in the package called the national currency crisis and Nigerian development. In my view, they are part of the great equation for Nigerian dignity and self affirmation in world affairs.    

But if the currency and the need for denotation are important steps for the Yar Adua administration, then one wonders why the debate between the Attorney General and the Central Bank chief came to the fore. It was a poor case of bureaucratic disharmony in the administration policy making process and the Nigerian people are watching closely to see what happens next. Three things beg for attention in this context. The first deals with the reality of the proposed plan and the degree of commitment to bring it about. The second is the responsibility and maturity of the Nigerian public with respect to this sensitive and important matter. Some Nigerian bloggers have reminded us about the Ghanaian example and the seriousness of purpose evident in that transaction. Although Ghanaians and Nigerians are all West Africans our cultural and psychological behaviors are light years apart with respect to violence and attitudes towards law-enforcement and security matters. The third point to note here is the Nigerian Diasporas opinions on and attitudes towards the question of currency denotation in Nigeria . Since they do contribute to the pumping of millions of dollars into the country’s economy it would make sense to assess their feelings and attitudes. It would be in the interest of the Yar Adua administration to think about a ministry for Nigerian Immigrants abroad. A number of programs could be conceived by such a ministry and its long-term impact could be beyond our wildest dreams.

The third set of challenges for the Yar Adua administration is the need to build bridges between the peoples of Nigeria . Having come to power at a critical stage in the history of the country, it makes sense for this second civilian President in the fourth republic to pay attention to the ethnic, religious and class problems of Nigerian unity. Anyone who is familiar with Nigerian society knows fully well that this country suffered a civil war largely because of power conflicts and ethnic rivalry. The very geopolitical transformation of the country owed itself to the battle between ethnic groups and regions in the old Nigeria after independence. Part of the solution to the political woes of the country in the first twenty years of its independence was the gradual transformation of the polity from three regions to four, nine, twelve, nineteen, twenty-one and then thirty-six states. This transformation has created political spaces for different ethnic groups who can now assert themselves as Nigerians without feeling consumed within an ethnic hegemony of one of the three dominant groups. Real or imagined, this state of affairs has consequences for the new President. He must make sure that on his watch Nigerians are protected by the law and living within any state means living in a part of Nigeria wherein your rights are guaranteed by the state as if the law-enforcing agencies and police as your Nigerian kinsmen and women. What is being stated here is that Nigerian nationalism means nothing if the average Nigeria can only be Nigerian without the borders of the state where his ethnic kin’s prevail and not elsewhere within the borders of the country. This is a major challenge to the New President. His predecessors have battled with this challenge and he has to do more to change the psychology of nationalism among Nigerians. 

But if in the past the ethnic problem enjoyed a great deal of emotional support in many Nigerian circles, then the religious factor is increasingly posing a greater threat than this one. The religious factor is significant on two grounds; it has a global support base and the clash of international religious fundamentalists is the primary source feared by most African governments. Another element is that the source of the religious factor are the local religious fundamentalists in Nigeria who have brought misery and pain to thousands of their country men and women over the years since the emergence of the Maitatasine movement. The Yar Adua administration is going to walk that dangerous tightrope of religious harmony in the country. Its success in preventing inter-religious conflict and in creating the much needed conditions for the leaders and the led of the various religious communities will be the basis used by the Nigerians in comparing and contrasting this government from the one before.

Class differences have existed in Nigeria for many years and the people who organized the labor movement in the country are noted for their articulation and mobilization of the working classes. Giving the worker is due and creating job opportunities to the poor and unemployed have been the bones of contention between the government and the labor movement. President Yar Adua inherited a labor problem soon after his elections. His success in working skillfully with Nigeria labor is going to add to his success because the growing number of people in urban Nigeria with jobs where labor union and bargaining are growing cannot be denied. In assessing his government and the policies that come out of it, it makes sense to pay close attention to the dialogue between his administration and labor.

Nigeria ’s fourth set of challenges are tied to her role and place in the West African region. Being a key player in ECOWAS and other regional bodies, Nigeria under Yar Adua must continue to project itself in the minimization of conflict in the region. Over the last thirty years Nigerian soldiers have come to the rescue of several African countries. Liberia and Sierra Leone have been the major spheres of operation. Over a billion dollars were spent to keep the peace in these two countries. Nigerian lives and property have been lost and thousands of African refugees have settled in Nigerian towns and cities. Apart from the peace-keeping and peace-making role of Nigeria in West Africa , she has also given financial and material support to several African countries. Evidence of these Nigerian involvements is in the legal systems of certain English-speaking countries, Nigerian lawyers were recruited by African governments to help on a variety of issues. These legal personnel served in various capacities. Some of them  judges on the local courts of these West African states or they are deployed in other capacities. In some of these smaller states Nigeria assistance has come in the form of university support for their universities. During the Jawara regime in the Gambia, the Nigerian government provided military officers to serve as counter balance to the French-speaking Senegalese forces, Similarly, Nigeria also sent the first Vice Chancellor of the University of the Gambia in the person of Dr. Ukon who died sometime ago in New York.

Besides the West African challenges for Nigeria , there are also continental ones. At the African Union, the successor to the Organization of African Unity, Nigerian leaders have to cooperate with fellow Africans from around the continent; there are several issues that demand Nigerian attention. There is the quality of peace-keeping and peace-making. Being one of the very few African states capable of providing military support to African nations in trouble, Nigeria has to respond to the demands of local or international agencies. The problem of Darfur has involved Nigeria not only as a country capable of providing troops, but also as a diplomatic center for peace talks and negotiation.   Abuja is becoming a place of note in African diplomacy and the Sudanese government is meeting its opponents in Nigerian hotels and secret meeting places. 

The Yar Adua administration has inherited a rich legacy. Under the military rule of President Yakubu Gowan and Murtala Muhammad Nigeria’s Pan African stature was greatly enhanced. Oil wealth and the growing association of these regimes with Nigerian intellectuals with Pan African perspectives contributed to the climate change. What was remarkable was Nigeria ’s involvement with the liberation groups in southern Africa . Building on the earlier efforts of Kwame Nkrumah and Julius Nyerere the Nigerian did play a big role in the Angolan crisis. Certainly their support for the MPLA did not go unrecognized. Nigerian diplomats have preserved and recorded for posterity that contribution in their memoirs. In light of this legacy and history, one wonders what the Yar Adua administration is going to do. Events in the next four or eight years would tell us about the vision and dreams of the present government in Abuja .

Years to come, the Yar Adua administration is going to face difficult tasks from the United Nations and the Commonwealth. Having inherited more than forty years of Nigerian involvement with the UN and the Commonwealth, President Yar Adua must demonstrate to these two bodies Nigeria ’s capacity to play a useful role in peace-making and peace-keeping. Her record in Sierra Leone and Liberia is well known to both the native Africans in these countries and the UN officials. One striking point to note here is the Nigerian negation of a long standing small brother’s joke about Nigeria among Sierra Leonean. Once upon a time in the early days of African independence, Nigeria ’s big size led playful and jocose Sierra Leonean to call their Big Neighbor near the Equator “Big for Nothing.” This attitude may persist in some quarters, but the realities of Nigeria ’s performance during their civil wars have changed many minds.

With respect to Nigeria and the Commonwealth, two things deserve our attention here. The first is about Nigeria ’s role in this body. Not only does Nigeria have the largest English-speaking people on the continent, but the efforts of the British and the membership of the Commonwealth to keep English and the shared colonial experiences intact cannot go any farther without Nigerian involvement and support. Not only has Nigeria produced some of the most distinguished writers in the English language, her rapidly growing Nollywood is one additional arsenal in the Nigerian effort to secure a place in the world of civilizations and cultures. The Commonwealth nations are bound to see more and more of the Nigeria factor. President Yar Adua, the former teacher and now potential statesman, could add a great deal through carefully thought out policies and responsible leadership in Africa , at the UN and in the Commonwealth. The second point to make is the fact that Nigeria’s role in the Commonwealth could be exploited skillfully with respect to cultural struggle between English, French and now Chinese. The present government faces the huddles of dealing with the needs of Commonwealth affairs and the demands for correct and skilful adjustments to the cultural programs of the promoters of English and British colonial legacies and the advocates of Francophone and its implications for Nigeria within the larger African context.

The last sets of problems are the issues growing out of the encounter between Diaspora Nigerians and their home government. In this age of globalization it is becoming more and more necessary for Nigerians to create an effective bridge between the homeland and the new government in Abuja . Three critical issues are here consist of the question of financial methods to facilitate the free movement of cash and capital from the Diaspora to the homeland. Again, the creation of better and more reliable financial and social mechanisms for the Diasporas to operate abroad with the knowledge that their home government is not bogged down by corruption and government policies are increasingly transparent and responsive. The final critical  point to identity here with respect to this seventh set of challenges, is the question of the brain drain. By creating new opportunities to the Diaspora the Nigerian government under President Yar Adua could change the fortunes of many members of the Brain Drain who are not doing well abroad and would liken to reinvest their talents to the motherland. This is particularly so for those who find themselves in status inconsistency situations. After having completed a university degree and doing a job way below one’s academic qualification, either because of the inability of employment or because of illegal immigrant status, many of these be leagued Diasporas could be turned into productive forces for change and development.

In the final analysis, it is evident that President Yar Adua is at a critical juncture of his presidency. In order for him to succeed, he must start with what he knows and build on what he has. His family background and his long association with Nigerian society and culture should give him the opportunity to locate himself on the map of Nigerian political leadership. Four points will continue to be raised over and over again when people look at his rule. First will be his commitment to the transformation of the electoral process which will continue to affect his legitimacy and credibility. The second is the battle to change the Nigerian economy so that it becomes the Big Bread for the Giant of Africa. The third is his standing among African and world leaders, not because of the size of the country but how skillful he is in bringing the Nigerians together regardless of ethnicity, religion and class. The last but not the least is the fact that under his rule the Diaspora Nigerians are going to be more and more visible abroad and their contributions to the political and economic processes of the country would be much talked about topic.

Eucharia Mbachu

embachu@voiceofwomenandchildren.org

Robot  Villager

# 1 ...Read the full article. Posted by Robot| 19.09.2007 00:58