The Nigerian Presidential Elections and the Future of Democracy in Africa

Nigeria is the most populated African country and some scholars have written that one out of every five persons on the continent is a Nigerian. Because of this demographic reality and the consequences of Nigerian success for blacks on the continent and elsewhere in the world, it is important to examine the new Nigerian experiment with democracy and its potentials for success in the present and distant future.

On April 14, 2007 , the Nigerian public is going through a major challenge in its political history. It has to elect a new national leader to replace the sitting President Olusegun Obasanjo . This election has much to say about the state of political stability in the country; it has much to do with the viability and sustainability of the democratic process in this large African country; it has a lot to do with the leadership role of Nigeria in the African continent.

When we examine the present state of things in the country we identify four significant developments which have grave consequences for this state and its people. The first is the establishment of representative government. We mean by representative government the practice and the tradition of selecting and electing leaders who agree on the principles of running a country just as they commonly agree on the rules of a game of sports. Under such dispensation the governors and the governed play by the rules and their political activism parallels their activity in their sporting matches. For example, one can say the British play politics as they do cricket and soccer; Americans play politics as they do football and basketball. These latest elections in Nigeria , if held and carried out successfully could launch a new day and a new beginning in the construction and maintenance of a democratic success. It would reverse the trend of democratic attempts being sabotaged by military coup detats and lay the foundations for responsible leadership.

 The second significant development that flows from these new democratic efforts of the Nigerian people is related to the political careers of Nigerian leaders. President Obasanjo stands to make history if the elections turned out successfully and his successor is able to carry the nation into the next decade. Such a success would make the Nigerian leader the historical counterpart of American leader President Eisenhower . Like President Eisenhower , President Obasanjo would accomplish two major political successes in his life. As soldiers both men led their countries in war and emerged victorious. Both of them led their nations as successful soldiers who left their military barracks to occupy the centers of power as elected leaders in civilian society. One other achievement of Obasanjo will be the fact that he served both as a military ruler and a civilian ruler. And now he enjoys the distinction of being the only Nigerian leader who helped create the successful transfer of power from a civilized military ruler to another civilian rule. What an accomplishment in Nigeria, a country desperately looking for this oasis of political hope in a desert where both the rulers and the ruled have suffered in the past from a serious lack of the water of political life!

Third is development that President Obasanjo restructured the political system in Nigeria in a manner that reinforces the political alliances between the military and the civilian elites. Banking heavily on the kind of solidarity that grew out of the civil war of the society and trying frantically to utilize the healing processes that accompanied that disaster for the nation President Obasanjo has used the last eight years of his rule to build bridges into all corners of the land.

The new generation of political leaders that come out of this new democracy will eventually determine the manner in which the future of democracy in Nigeria is recognized and remembered.

 The fourth and last development can be traced to the political career of President Obasanjo and the determination of Nigerians. By denying the president a third term the national’s political leadership demonstrated to the rest of the world that there are still presidential limits in Africa . As a consequence, the tug of war between the president and the legislators made it clear that democracy stands a chance in this African nation if and when the people and the three branches of government work together to agree or disagree for the betterment of the country.

In addition to these four factors which relate to the life and times of the Obsanjo presidency, let us examine the viability and sustainability of the democratic experiment in Nigeria .

There are three points to remember whenever we look at this important political scheme for the Nigerians. The first is the nature of the state and the manner in which Nigerians relate to it. Judging from the forty-seven years of post independence experimentation in state-building and nation-building, one can say that a Nigerian identity has emerged. It is growing in stature and importance in African and world circles. However, the future of the experiment has been affected in many ways by the creation of thirty-six states out of the original three that composed the newly independent Nigeria . This political metamorphosis, which came out of the civil war and all the bloodshed and political jockeying for ethnic and regional power, has changed the nature of Nigerian politics. Not only did it split the major groups into smaller entities, but it also empowered the ethnic minorities who lamented their sense of political marginality.

This return to the original political scheme of Lord Lugard through the merging of the thirty-six political entities he founded in Nigeria could be fruitful if the three major ethnic groups (Ibo, Hausa and Yoruba) learned to live together and use their numerical strengths to fortify the union. Nigeria has great potentials but that future is planted in the hearts and minds of all the ethnic groups in the country. If they support this new democracy and the attendant benefits that are likely to grow in the coming years, then their grandchildren would look back to our times and laud their trials and tribulations during the long journey away from colonialism and imperialism.

The second point deals with the role of civil society in the consolidation of the democratic spirit in Nigerian life and culture. Through the demonstration effect, many Nigerians can inculcate the spirit in their daily lives and in the activities of their organizations. Democracy cannot take root in any society if the people themselves are unwilling to plant the seeds of democracy in the areas of life frequented by the youth. Through the socialization process Nigerians can advance their nation by showing their traditional cultures have room for the individual while affirming the collective benefits of family unity and ethnic solidarity. The democratic process can yield fruits only when the zero level of tolerance and truth among the diverse groups of a country is raised to higher levels. Nigerians are now struggling desperately to raise this national average to a commendable level. It will take time, efforts and sacrifices for this to come about.

In our third analysis is the fact that consolidation of democracy among the Nigerians is going to depend on the development of the political system. By building a strong political order Nigerians would solve the challenges of avoiding the Hobbesian state of nature and the benefits of consolidating their state to meet the notion of the modern state according to Max Weber , the noted German sociologist. To this great political sociologist, such a state enjoys the monopoly of the legitimate use of violence. In the special case of Nigeria , the Webberian idea means the establishment of a political system that minimizes if not reduces totally the appearance of non-state violence in society.

Lastly, but not the least is the role and place of Nigeria in the African continent. Through the establishment of a new democracy that works, Nigerians may become the source of inspiration to many other African countries. After having lived through coup detats and civil war, after having suffered from the greed of reckless rulers who used their powers to make life nasty, brutish and short for the masses, a new democracy in Nigeria would be reassuring. It would give hopes to its people that the agonies of the past are not permanent and Nigerians are not doomed to languish in the guts of the damned. This reassuring fact is not wishful thinking; rather, it is grounded in the accomplishments of the past. Its is definitely true that Nigerians spend over a billion dollars in their attempts to bring law and order in West Africa; it is also true that Nigeria expended money, emotion and dreams in the liberation of the southern African countries under apartheid, Portuguese and minority rule in the early decades of post independence. These truths are not only available in the official documents of Nigerian and foreign governments but also in many of our newspapers and magazines. These are evident that Nigeria has been something and is something and will continue to be something greater.

Robot  Villager

# 1 Nigeria is the most populat...Read the full article. Posted by Robot| 15.04.2007 05:39

akuluouno  Villager

# 2 Dear Eucharia, Thanks for yours which was aptly written as the do or die affair Apr 07. However let me quickly address some of the issues you raised from the last to the first. Firstly is your last point that seems to suggest that Africa and indeed West Africa states are waiting for Nigeria to exhale democratically before they can be politically stable and to say that it is not true. It is part of the Greater Nigeria doctrine that has informed our policies in this region to the detriment of these states especially the francophone ones and their patron France. Look at how the Cote Ivoire quagmire was silently resolved in the spirit of the Linas-Marcoussis Accord earlier signed in France after all the acrimony. On the issue of building a strong Nigeria rooted on the Lugardian foundations, I think it might be an ardous task seeing that the foundation was ab initio flawed and that successive Nigerian leaders rather than be brave an seek a reconstruction decided to toe the mischievious line patching up the status quo. Missingis the issue of rapid economic development of nigeria. On Obasanjo's legacy post May 07, I do not think that we may see anything dramatic given that in Oct 79 he tried it with Shagari. Infact the situation now is even more precarious. Umar is not in good health and if his 8 years in Katsina, a monoreligious and monethnic state is anything to go by, then Nigeria is in for another Shagari era at best and a situation where Obj pulls the strings from Wadata Palza at worst. Similarly, Jonathan's visible connections with the $1 million saga at the Murtala Airport will always hang like an Albatross around his neck should Umar kick the bucket. So head or tail, Obj is literally dey Kampe and the future after the 07 elections may not be as glorious for Nigeria as you and all wel meaning Nigerians would hav eliked it to be. :mad: :mad: Posted by akuluouno| 15.04.2007 06:38

akuluouno  Villager

# 3 Sorry in the first line I meant as the do or die affair unfolds. Posted by akuluouno| 15.04.2007 06:50