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But since politics is defined in the language of American political scientist Harold Lasswell , as who gets what, when and how, it makes sense to examine briefly the political consequences of a Hillary victory at the polls when Americans vote in 2008. In my view, the Clintons have already made history. Never in the history of the American Republic has there ever been a family that produces an active wife who served elegantly as First Leader and later got herself elected as Senator from a big state as New York.
Come to think about it, the electoral success for this powerful New York senator would make great American history being the first woman who will assume power at the presidential level. If she scales through her party’s nomination and is voted in for this powerful job, then a number of consequences come to mind. Principally, since there were no founding mothers at that time in the history of the country, one would wonder whether the idea of an American female president ever entered the minds of George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, John Adams and others. The election of a female president would have been a phenomenon that amazed both George Washington and Abraham Lincoln, I believe even the progressive and liberal President Franklin D. Roosevelt of the post depression age would have been in a similar world of political amazement. Why is this so? It is because, if Senator Hillary Clinton is elected to the presidency, she would be remembered for three important distinctions. She would be known as the first female to enter what was for a long time the forbidden chamber of men only; she would introduce to future Americans the idea of a First Gentleman who occupies a moral and political role that is equivalent to the First lady; she would also be recognized by her combination of five heavy weight titles in the American hierarchy of political timbers and calibers. Senator Hillary Clinton will then be remembered as a first lady to the governor of the state of Arkansas , a first lady at the White House, a senator from New York and finally as a president in her own right. Having served as a first lady, she would earn the distinction of being both a first lady and a president in her lifetime. Her husband, who too served as a president, would go down in history as both a first gentleman and a president at the same time in his life. Asuccessful combination of these achievements would compensate many an American woman for much of the dignity and glory long denied to them in the difficult game of who gets what, when and how in the pre-liberation age. At least for the first time in history, Africa comes first before America in having a female president, the Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf.
When we explore the candidacy of Senator Clinton one is struck by the fact that since she declared her desire to be voted as Democratic Party candidate and Presidential nominee many months ago, she has worked hard to increase her chances for election. As in the past it is common knowledge that candidates for the presidency must have money, volunteers and party backers from the various segments of American society. During the last four months the contest between Hillary and her Democratic rivals has brought many things to our attention. There are the differential degrees of experience and confidence among the multiple candidates from the Democratic Party. Much was expected from the powerful efforts of Barak Obama, John Edwards, Bill Richardson and others. What has surprised most of us is the manner in which the Hillary Clinton candidacy has fared within the Democratic Party. Not only has she participated skillfully in the various debates organized in different parts of the country, but she has gradually taken a lead in the contest. Earlier in the race her lead was deemed questionable and the candidacy of Obama was seen as a major threat to her success. However, the opinion polls over the last month have revealed a radically change environment. Senator Clinton is breaking away from Obama and the rest, and her powerful performance is created much talk.
Taking note of this change in the opinion polls and taking stock of her candidacy and the forces and factors that are likely to build her or do her in this year, three factors changed the situation for Hillary Clinton, are the size of her political wallet, the enthusiasm of her husband’s supporters and the willingness of the party faithful to remember her as the former First Lady whose tenure at the White House brought back good memories for a party deprived of presidential power since Jimmy Carter was voted out under the Reagan triumph. Because of the power and the charisma identified with the Bill Clinton era, it is not surprising to see Democratic Party activists rallying around the senator from New York . But while this is going on as we speak, many would like to unravel the Hillary Clinton secret. In the remaining part of this piece I will examine where Hillary Clinton is and where she is likely to go from here.
Hillary Clinton has emerged the fastest running horse? Is this for real, or are we been prepared for a fall down the road? Again, how long can she maintain her steam? Is Obama running out of fuel or charismatic power? Is Edwards the black horse yet to hit the course and bust with unimaginable energy? There are many questions that occupy the attention of all political pundits in Washington D.C. or elsewhere. Consequently her gender and her elect- ability in an American society where male chauvinism may be underground in polite society but still enjoys a great deal of popularity around the country. Some have made the point that America is not yet ready to elect either a black or female President. Those who cite racism hanger their fears on the long- worn cap of shame called racism; those who fault patriarchal tendencies in certain circles of American life show their fears in American men and most often women who almost always associate war heroes with males and very occasionally with women. Residual Florence Nightingale syndrome still persists and Hillary Clinton is believed by some not to be remembered as Joan of Arc of the Americans of the twentieth century. Take it or leave it, such views exist still in Washington today. Oh yes, it is still on!
Yet, in outlining these realities that bring nightmare thoughts to Hillary and her campaign there is also the chances for her to overcome these fears and become the leading democratic candidate who wins at the Democratic National Convention and later in the year for a step towards getting elected to the Oval Office. Three issues are conflated in this possibility. One is her dynamism; the second is the popularity of her cause and the persistence of her supporters to blow away all the walls of the Doubting Thomases within and without her campaign. The third is her capacity to woo and win even reluctant Republicans because history for some reasons decided to turn the tide in her favor. These are great possibilities and no man or woman looking at his or her Magic Glass can predict the future. Hillary is therefore a warrior who must not only succeed in frightening her opponents with the magic of the opinion polls but with the mighty powers of her crowds across the nation and the ‘Magic’ Bill Clinton .
Writing about this former First Lady who enjoyed the benefits of working with a charismatic husband, one must give her many credits in such an analysis. Because her husband led the Democratic Party to power after the humiliating defeat of Jimmy Carter in 1980, the Clintons are well liked by Democrats who see them as sources of victory for their party. Many remember them as sources of inspiration in 1992 when the young Clinton defeated President George Bush senior,. Senator Hillary is hoping, perhaps against hope that the historical forces in American society are going to replicate for her what was done for her husband at a critical time. One of the legacies that awaits her in this presidential race is the historical switch of fortunes that American culture has created in her campaign against other democratic rivals. Included in the pack of contenders she must face and defeat is the political ghost of her husband in the person of Obama. Not only is Obama a credible candidate but he is a super Clinton as recently reported by the British Economist. Not only is this Senator from Illinois sharp and strong but he is like her husband in political tact and skills.
Hillary has also a number of issues to contend with and the question of articulation and affirmation of political self remains prominent. I already allude to the gender question and the visible and invisible forces that are waiting to see whether grace or grass will be her destiny. The war in Iraq, judged critically, Senator Hillary Clinton has presented herself as a political dancer who knows when to jump without been seen as a jumper and to hit the ground without leaving an idea to observers that she is hitting the ground running. This political stealth is very American and those who know how and when to play it are the masters. This strategy works only when the dancer is able to woo and win the media who can help her avoid any unintended synchronization of her body movement and her verbal articulations. Many American politicians have suffered defeat because of poor choice of words or bad projection of self in the midst of nasty encounters. In all the recent confrontations between her and the mass media Clinton saw herself as a lioness who is unfazed by any rowing of a lesser animal. Whether we dress her in these zoological terms or not, a critical view would summarize such an analysis by saying that she is familiar with African metaphors when she said that “it takes a village to raise a child,” This reconciliation between individualism and communalism led many to say that she is cautious and persistence in her self declaration. Believe it or not, Hillary is still the dancer and I will continue to examine her space and her maneuverings on the political stage.
Another set of issues that would come to mind as we look at the Hillary candidate in the fifteen or sixteen months to come are her opinions on and attitudes towards the reigning issues in American society. Besides the war and the manner in which she has responded to the questions, there is the immigration question, American foreign policy towards Africa, the health question, the economy and its domestic and international ramifications. And finally, there is the future of the nation and the various programs that are designed to strengthen America and assure the young and old that the American Dream is real and its is not shrinking.
With respect to the immigration question, the Senator from New York is going to be forced to come up with clear and definite ideas about the debate raging between the governor of New York and some of the politicians opposed to his favorable position towards the Latino and all other Illegal. Banking heavily on the inevitability of the passage of a favorable bill for the illegal tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, Clinton must either dance Cha-cha Cha-cha style cautiously with Governor Spitzer with respect to things in New York and observer style with respect to the things federal. This is going to be a great challenge and her opponents from both her party and the Republic Party will be watching.
On the health question, she was once bitten. As the old saying goes, once bitten, twice shied. This presidential election has provided her with the opportunity to research and plan for a showdown with her detractors the first time around. Given the golden opportunity by her husband to introduce Americans to a new day and a new era of health development, Hillary flounder into the quicksand of petty bickering. And political grandstanding prevented her and the Republicans to come to an agreement. That was a momentous event in U.S. history. Here was a precedent setting First Lady taking her chances to shape the course of American health for decades. As a President in the year 2008, she would be facing another chance to make history. This time, it is not because of her husband but because of her own accomplishment as a political warrior. As an observer looking from the sidelines, I can only say briefly and in passing that Hillary and the health issue would be with us until the voters elevate her to Number One or history confers her as a losing candidate. Time will tell.
With respect to her position on the economy I guess we have heard much from her. In the coming months much will be expected from her elaboration and political nuances. Three issues are again conflated in this Hillary bag of puzzles. The first is the misery index and how she position herself vis-à-vis her departing predecessor should she be elected. This was the Reagan challenge to Jimmy Carter . She would not have a Bush to play with, but chances are a Republican too wedded to Bush either through 9/11 or some other part of what is perceived by many voters as failed Bushian policies. Another issue about the economy is the impact of the Chinese invasion of the American household with regards to the gradual challenge to buy American and the old saw of Yankee ingenuity. What is happening to us at the mall and why are the Dollar stores serving as Chinese baby sitting pacifiers for the poor and the lower middle classes? Is Hillary sufficiently convinced that trading with China is affecting American performance abroad? These questions would surface in the coming months especially as the threat of foreclosure appear as a dangerous wolf in one’s neighborhood.
The last question about Hillary ’s views about the American Destiny and the role and place of the Clinton is the shaping of the America of this century. Hillary certainly has much in mind and only time will make them real or false. In my view, the Clintons have already made history. Never in the history of the American Republic has there ever been a family that produces an active wife who served elegantly as First Leader and later got herself elected as Senator from a big state as New York . His legacy would have been enough in her record. But time and history have their surprises and rewards. If she makes it to the Democratic Convention successfully and then wins the 2008 elections, then her chances to shape America exists. Only time will tell.
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Posted by Robot| 14.10.2007 11:54