There has been a mighty uproar at the unanimous decision by the Court of Appeal sitting in Abuja that the election of Umaru MusaYar’Adua to the Presidency of Nigeria in April 2007 was untainted and allowed to stand. The two petitions in front of the Court, brought by former President Buhari and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar were dismissed on the grounds that the violations brought before the Court were not of sufficient severity or merit as to have had a dramatic impact on the verdict of the election. These violations were essentially trivial as to the outcome of the election, and the Court found that they had not been proven in facts presented to the Court.

Despite the universal condemnation of the conduct of the election by foreign observers sent to monitor these elections, and despite the absence of ballots left behind in South Africa; the printing of ballots without serial numbers or references; the non-opening of polling places; the theft and manipulation of the ballots by the police, army and hired thugs; and premature tallies of  votes (sometimes giving totals greater than the number of electors), the Court found that the allegations of violations of the Electoral Law were effectively trivial. As promised, the two petitioners have vowed to go to the Supreme Court for redress.

As a consultant to several governments and companies on Nigerian politics this has been a busy forty-eight hours. What might be of interest to Nigerians are the questions these foreigners have raised, as they are very different questions than those circulating within Nigeria. They might provide a guide as to how Nigeria is viewed in Western countries and in other African states.

The first question was “Will they get away with it?” Does it seem likely that the pressure and rewards offered to the judges will be sufficient? The answer is ’Yes, of course’. Once the Attorney-General sat down with a cozy group of political leaders in Abuja at 2100 hours the day before the judgment and read them the verdict he had drafted for the Court it became clear that all was arranged successfully. The verdict would be read by the Court the following day and the President could leave the country on his China trip. The promises of promotions and a massive transfer of cash from major Northern political centres proved more than sufficient.

The second part of the answer relates to why this was possible. The fundamental reason why all this effort was expended to continue “Baba-Go-Slow” in power rather than to rerun the election which Yar’Adua might easily have won was that the Presidency viewed its enemy as Obasanjo and his cronies, not Atiku Abubakar and Buhari. Obasanjo is widely thought to have chosen Yar’Adua to succeed him because he was convinced that the campaign would kill Yar’Adua and Obasanjo would get his Third Term by default. When Yar’Adua survived and began to supplant Obasanjo’s policies with his own and to distance himself from Obasanjo, the reaction was swift and intense. Obasanjo fought for control of the Board of the PDP party and will be in charge in the congress coming up soon. Yar’Adua could not be assured of winning the nomination for the PDP and would have to severely compromise with Obasanjo in order to survive. He couldn’t afford to wait for a free and fair election.

Along these lines it has become clear that with this ruling by the Court the review by the Supreme Court is becoming less and less attractive to both Buhari and Atiku. They dislike each other and, more importantly, dislike Obasanjo more than they dislike Yar’Adua. Their review by the Supreme Court is likely to succeed on its merits but, having succeeded; it places power back in the hands of their joint enemy Obasanjo. There is a lot of carrot and stick diplomacy going on between the Yar’Adua camps and both Buhari and Atiku on how far to press the appeal to the Supreme Court. Neither wishes to reward Obasanjo.

The next question these foreigners asked is “Who else is there if Yar’Adua goes?” There has been a lot of discussion of who might be available to step in as a compromise candidate. The most obvious ones are Babagana Kingibe and Aliyu Mohammed Gusau, both of whom have been actively campaigning for the job. The trouble is that, despite what Nigerians think of these gentlemen, they are viewed in a less favourable light overseas. There are several stories in circulation relating to why Kingibe suddenly was moved out of his foreign ministry job, several years ago, and the track record of Gusau in his National Security role has rubbed several foreign countries the wrong way. Neither of the two would be an obvious replacement. What the foreign groups want is someone who will create and maintain stability. He most certainly will not be a reformer, a challenger of the status quo. The view is that Nigeria cannot tolerate a lot of reform. Reform and the precipitate move towards democracy and the rule of law are considered too dangerous.

The logic is that, for the most part, Nigeria is a very poor country with millions of very poor people. Their time horizons do not extend far into the future. They must struggle on a daily or weekly basis for survival, often in terrible conditions. Their ability to survive relies primarily on a network of corruption, dash or deals which sustain them. Remove this burden from their backs and they will starve. The remuneration from gainful employment and social services is not sufficient to sustain them, nor is the network of social services developed to a level in which the state can intervene.

The best foreign example was the election of Mayor John Lindsay in New York. He was elected as a reformer; a man with clean hands. He removed layer upon layer of corruption in New York and soon had riots on his hand from poor people who were unable to survive in a free and unfettered economy. There wasn’t enough work available and the budgets and rules of the system did not allow social services to pay their rent or provide them food or medicines. A compromise with corruption allowed the city to get back in business.

The structure of Nigerian state and local politics is not one which welcomes reformers. Therefore there has been little movement of reformers up the political chain to national prominence. The reformers and democrats are essentially educated urban Nigerians; often with experience of life in other countries. They write passionately about the failures of the current system and are very accurate in their descriptions. They know what should be done but they are hard pressed to find a political figure who will embrace these ideals on the national level and put them into practice.

The question asked most often is “Will this be another Kenya?” Are the Nigerians sufficiently upset by the rigged election to take to the streets and riot? The answer is ‘No’. Nigeria has had its bitter experience with a civil war and no one wants another. The rioting and hostage-taking in the Delta is not about seeking democracy and reform. It is about seeking a proper share of the oil revenues for the local inhabitants and a repair of the damages done to their environment by the oil companies. There is enough disorder with religious battles in places like Plateau and elsewhere to make such rioting a thing to be avoided.

No one really expected that, after the end of Third Term, and Obasanjo’s “do or die” pronouncement that this election would be anything else but rigged. It took a fool and a charlatan like Maurice Iwu of INEC to turn it into a complete farce. The election was almost a year ago and several of the most egregious offenders have already been turfed out of office by the Courts to make it seem as if some type of law and order is at work. A Kenya solution is not really a possibility. If there were such a move towards violence the Army would be back in charge of the country in two days and all the politicians would be languishing in Kiri-Kiri, Kaduna and Yola. They know this well.

So, as far as the rest of the world goes it’s business as usual in Nigeria. The tragedy is that no one expects better from the country or its politicians (or soldiers). The term ’Nigerian’ is generally used as a term of opprobrium; a shorthand for the breakdown of a nation under the weight of a corrupt system. The view is that if Nigerians are not willing to insist on change and improvements no one else can make it happen for them. As long as the country continues to produce fine crude oil and natural gas they can have any kind of government they want and, in truth, not many people care much beyond this. Their money is welcome; their banks and stock exchange are valuable contributions to the African and the world’s economies. Their political governance unfortunately is theirs alone.

Robot  Villager

# 1 There has been a mighty uproar at the unanimous decision by the Court of Appeal sitting in Abuj...Read the full article. Posted by Robot| 27.02.2008 15:56

ula-lisa  Villager

# 2 The term ’Nigerian’ is generally used as a term of opprobrium; a shorthand for the breakdown of a nation under the weight of a corrupt system. The view is that if Nigerians are not willing to insist on change and improvements no one else can make it happen for them. As long as the country continues to produce fine crude oil and natural gas they can have any kind of government they want and, in truth, not many people care much beyond this. Their money is welcome; their banks and stock exchange are valuable contributions to the African and the world’s economies. Their political governance unfortunately is theirs alone. For a foreigner, you write in very audatious terms and with such certainty if not smug insulting tones...If I wrote of the USA like you do, I would be termed a foreign spy (such anti-American sentiment where motive is questioned by a foreigner)...but I digress... 1. First question would be: who has hired you as consultant...Atiku? Oil Companies or foreign governments or the security outfits? 2. Your smug detail regarding the dictation of the judgment together with the exact time suggests that: a) You were in the room or b) you had an agent in the room or c) you bugged the room 3. Why would you make this information public and who is paying you for this service? 4. Your tone does not suggest that you are alligned to the cause of concerned Nigerians whom you disparage here. 5. One wonders what this write up was aimed to produce? Da Bishop Posted by ula-lisa| 27.02.2008 18:33

DeepThought  Villager

# 3 Actually not an entirely unaccurate description of Nigeria. ....If there were such a move towards violence the Army would be back in charge of the country in two days and all the politicians would be languishing in Kiri-Kiri, Kaduna and Jos. They know this well. By the way, is there no military in Kenya? Why didn't they just use the opportunity to grap power? Posted by DeepThought| 27.02.2008 18:50

ozoodoo  Villager

# 4 Dr Busch, Who are the “foreign groups” referenced in your article? Are they the known predators (the wolves)? Maybe their leaders should do themselves a lot of good by eating their own feaces. Posted by ozoodoo| 27.02.2008 19:23

gwobezentashi  Villager

# 5 Tribunal’s verdict vindicates us – INEC Musikilu Mojeed, Abuja The Independent National Electoral Commission on Wednesday said the judgment of the Presidential Election Petitions Tribunal has vindicated the body on its stand that the 2007 general election was free and fair. The commission also fixed April 12, 2008 as date for the fresh governorship election ordered by the court in Adamawa State. The re-run of the annulled senatorial election in the Federal Capital Territory will hold on April 5, 2007. The tribunal had on Tuesday upheld the election of President Umaru Yar’Adua and dismissed the objections raised by the Action Congress and the All Nigeria’s Peoples Party. Reacting to the judgment at a press conference in Abuja, the commission, through its National Commissioner in charge of Information and Publicity, Mr. Phillip Umeadi (Jnr.), said the tribunal had justified its claim that the 2007 general election was hitch-free. Saying the litigation had enriched the country’s democratic process and accorded legitimacy to the presidential election, Umeadi urged Yar’Adua’s opponents in the election to accept the verdict and join hands with the government to move Nigeria forward. The INEC commissioner said, “By the ruling of the Court of Appeal in the presidential election petition, more so the unanimous verdict of the eminent judges, the Independent National Electoral Commission has been vindicated in the outcome of the 2007 presidential election. “INEC has consistently held that the outcome of the 2007 presidential election reflected the intent of the Nigerian voters. The firm and consistent assertion by the commission on the outcome of the election derived from an advantaged insight as well as an impartial and unsentimental analysis of the election. “It is unfortunate that some partisan interest groups went out of the way to misconstrue the commission’s consistent standing with the truth. “Now the Court of Appeal has spoken. It is good and heartening that the judgment came from the same body of legal arbiters of electoral disputes that have been widely acclaimed and praised by all parties in the land in matters concerning the 2007 elections. “By remaining resolute and even-handed in handling the petition, even in the face of sentiments which spilled over in the media, the Court of Appeal has once more reaffirmed its historic place as the bastion of justice in the society.” http://www.punchng.com/Articl.aspx?theartic=Art200802281133493 It is official! James Ogenyi Ogebe and his panel have now given the Wuruwuru master the Nafdac seal of authenticity. He scored 80% indeed and we all wanted to cheat him of his well deserved credits. My buddy, Mallam Ghana Must Go of the Leadership group suggests we all appologise to Iwu and award him a GCFR. Shikena. Iwu was right and we were all wrong. We did not see any massive rigging. We did not see the electoral engineering or what they call jerrymandering going on and what we saw had no impact at all on the result. sam sam! Infact we were all on another planet. But why are we suprised? In this country, coup plotting has always been legitimate as long as you got away with it and there are many ways to skin a cat. No be so? Even the incestuous congo shiner is gloating. This indeed must be the age of the g(l)oat! Beware however, the ides of March. It is never over until it is really over. While okporoko and banga may be condimentally compatible, water and oyeli na explosion. Aluta! Gwobezentashi Posted by gwobezentashi| 27.02.2008 19:36

10Kobo  Villager

# 6 It will be very interesting if Dr. Busch (and l may be mistaken, but that name does not sound Nigerian less from coming from the lineage of the Yorubas of Nigeria!) actually wrote this but what is in a name? Your itle of this article is even more interesting since it presumes that you are 'son-of-the-soil'? I would bet my two precious balls that you are either not named Butch or you're just fronting for someone but that notwithstanding, your write-up makes curious reading. While your angle as to why Yardua cannot or should not vacate the mandate is interesting, l wish to humbly submit that it is very faulty. In Nigeria of 0ver 150Million, with a very fertile and perceptive minds littering every nook and cranny, to find a replacement for Yardua, a better and prefered one, is about the simplest exercise that can be undertaken and please not that Kingibe and Gusau are not part of the equation of 'prefered candidates'; Firstly they are and have continued to be part of the "shallow minded, expired and bereft generation" that an this country aground. Your comparison of the Nigerian situation to what happened in NewYork was most inaccurate. Firstly, unlike NewYorkers, Nigerians are down already, to their lowest ebb, as a result of the effects of corruption of their leaders and "he thats down need fear no fall". Nothing will give them more pleasure than to see all these 'leeches, criminals in Agbada and uniform" brought to swift justice and thats why, thy might find it hard to forgive Yardua fo removing Ribadu, despite all his shortcomings: Ribadu gave them hope, maybe falsely or not, that a day of reckoning will come. Nigerians have never been used o any "Social welfare system", only Baba God cares about there welfare, all others are just their abusers so, unlike the NewYorkers, hunting down corruption and fighting it to a stand-still, is most desirable: You cant loose whats you dont have! Unlike NewYorkers, staying alive among Nigerians, is such a challenge, they have won the world record for "refusing to die" or why do you think that in the middle of all these suffering, thy can still be adjudged the "happiest people" on earth? To state that Nigerians cannot survive without corruption is to stand logic on its head. The only thing that stands between Nigerians and survival is corruption. We have gotten o the level whereby we just dont care. Poverty is too endemic, the type of poverty that takes away humanity from man, that makes an animal of a man, that abject poverty is what Nigerians, unlike NewYorkers, have to live with and right now, its just a matter of time. Some say Nigeria is a "Time Bomb" but l say Nigeria is a "primed" Time Bomb! Kenya might be a dress rehearsal and its just naive to think Nigerians can afford another Kenya! Given the size and role, ignoble or not, that Nigeria plays in the Wet African sub-region, l hope those who think that "as long as the oil flows and they keep the stolen wealth" will not come to bite their fingers very soon. If your neighbour is eating cockroaches and you dont admonish him, then your sleep and restfulness at night, is what you're jeopardizing"! Yahoo-yahoozee is just one of the by-products of a failed society and those who encourage Nigeria to fail or turn a blind eye to its rape will, one way or the other, be saddled with the myraids of "problem-offsprings" that it would spurn. They would pay, when Boys decide to "Haala", after-all, dont you get what you pay for? Finally, let no one scare us or even attempt such futile exercise; Nigerians are beyond being scared. An old woman is not scared by the sight of a giant pr*ck, she's seen it all! Every society has its own share of Saboteurs, preys and boot-lickers, those whose sole aspiration in life is to profit from the poverty, under-development and destruction that is placed on larger society. They are worse that the other country you go to war with, they are the enemy-within and to think "rule-of-law, democracy and due process" is a language they speak or understand, is to live in a deliberate state of utopia. Yardua knows this, every Nigerian knows this but those that benefit from the rot, perpetuate it! These are the real enemies, the dangerous virus in our system: There is an anti-virus called "Spybot, Search and Destroy", lets run it on our system and me thinks we might just start running like a new P.C! I tell you, very soon, as is happening in America today, the yearnings of the people for 'a change' will take a life of its own, our own "Obama" will emerge and when he does, even the enemies of change will either join the train or be swept aside and asunder, by the tide. Just my 10Kobo thoughts! :wink: Posted by 10Kobo| 27.02.2008 20:32

hellofadude  Villager

# 7 My initial reaction on hearing the tribunals verdict was to feign a lack of surprise, indifference; when in actual fact, deep down i was in shock, it felt like my insides were being torn out as i digested the full implication of their decision... a possibility i had never taken seriously before now. How can so-called learned justices come up with this kind of Judgement inspite of all the evidence under their noses.. What in the hell are they saying??? That this is the standard of democracy we deserve??!!! This strikes at the heart of the problem which has plagued Nigeria for many years.. the fact that corruption is so endemic, it has leaked into our Judicial system, where Judges for whatever reason try to dabble into politics either under the pretext of national interest or personal gain, instead of sticking to their primary function which is to inteprete the law exactly, both in its spirit and intention.. Let us hope the Supreme Court will rescue the Nigerian Judiciary from Judicial suicide and prevent us from surviving happily in mediocrity... What a mess! Ugly as this story painted by Dr busch is, it sounds very plausible and can be easily supported by events... and i really dont care who this person is, the insight alone is worth its weight... Posted by hellofadude| 27.02.2008 21:34

ajis15  Villager

# 8 Gary: Oro lo so o puro. Yes, very succint, but painful. In Nigeria, corruption is so endemic and has become part of life. There is a loss of sense of outrage that a reformer will be like an enemy of the people. Although a very bad example, we see how people react to Obasanjo attempt at reform in and out of power. The question that agitates my mind is: can a people and a country continue like this? I always wonder, where is the future for this country? Posted by ajis15| 28.02.2008 16:02

STTOPP  Villager

# 9 We need to STTOPP agreeing with people that try to define and redicule us at the same time. Controling our destiny is the way forward and also realizing that these people have their own agenda. STTOPP Posted by STTOPP| 28.02.2008 22:19

busanga  Villager

# 10 =STTOPP;4294992595>We need to STTOPP agreeing with people that try to define and redicule us at the same time. Controling our destiny is the way forward and also realizing that these people have their own agenda. STTOPP yes controlling your destiny, the way Adedibu and OBJoke has been doing an excellent job at it? What a shame for a grown man to be held hostage in his own land by a bunch of touts and having fun at it. :biggrin: Posted by busanga| 29.02.2008 00:36

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