As the old Shona proverb suggests, if the MDC drum plays at this pitch any longer it will certainly break. The cracks are already appearing in the structure. Today the MDC leadership announced that it still hadn’t decided to participate in the Presidential election runoff as is its Constitutional obligation. This has been the fundamental problem all along.

When the votes were counted for the Assembly (the lower house) and the Senate the results were seen as free and fair. The system was transparent. Everyone in any position of authority or responsibility knew the results of the ballot. The MDC won a majority (combined) in the Assembly and had a very high percentage of the non-appointed Senate seats. SADC observers monitored the election and the ballot casting and had no major complaints.

The results at every polling station were exhibited as a printed and attested sheet outside each polling place. The Zimbabwean entrepreneur, Strive Masiyiwa – the founder of the mobile phone network Econet, had given hundreds of mobile phones to his friends in the MDC. As soon as the results were officially prepared and posted outside the polling station the MDC ward captains called these results through to Harare. Often they arrived in Harare before the official information was passed from the voting stations to the ZEC, the electoral commission.

When the official confirmations were sent to the ZEC these results were announced. There was no substantial disagreement or controversy between the MDC and ZANU-PF or the ZEC on these. Indeed a re-audit of these results proved no alterations needed to be made.

The tallying of the votes for the Presidential contest was also made. The race was very close so the physical tally of the ballots had to be made by the ZEC not just at the polling stations. This involved the logistical nightmare of transporting the physical ballots from rural areas to Harare; a lengthy process. On the second day of the count the political leadership of both sides knew from the ward captains of both parties that the unaudited count of the Presidential ballots showed Morgan Tsvangirai of the MDC with around 48% of the vote and Mugabe 43%. There was no mystery about this. I published these exact figures three days after the election. It was clear that there would need to be a runoff election.

That is when the problem emerged. The MDC leadership embarked on a campaign of manipulation through issuing false and misleading statements which were delivered by the MDC secretary-general Tendai Biti. His wild claims of a 60% sweep of the election were entirely figures made up for the occasion. Even most of the others in the MDC did not believe them. His tales of ballot-rigging and violence against voters had no basis in fact. Biti attempted to create an image, primarily designed for the international audience, that somehow the ZANU-PF were rigging the election and that the MDC was their innocent victim.

The reason for this, other than the fact that his outside sponsors in Britain and South Africa suggested taking this line, was because the MDC was not sure that they would not automatically win the runoff. The newly-elected MDC Assemblymen and Senators wanted to take their seats in the new government. They realised that the country, while supporting change, especially the business community, did not support the current leadership of the MDC. The business community did not relish the thought of putting the labour movement in power, especially a labour movement dependent for funds, support and guidance of COSATU in South Africa. They reckoned that if Mugabe indicated that he would only stay for a while after the election before retiring to let someone like Sidney Sekeremayi (former security chief) take over, the Zimbabwe people would be happy to escape the violence and confrontation of a root and branch change in the country by waiting to see how the new Assembly and Senate would operate and if could get international support in fixing the economy.

Tsvangirai and Biti announced, to the horror of the security chiefs in the Army and the Police, that the MDC would give back the farms which had been taken from their owners by ZANU-PF. Irrespective of the merits and morality of such an action a precipitate dislodging of the current occupiers would present the authorities with a security nightmare they knew they couldn’t control.. It was a recipe for conflict which no one could control. The security forces were alarmed. Even worse, when the issue of a transition to a possible new MDC government arose at the meeting in Lusaka, the MDC leadership told the African presidents that there were British Special Forces standing by at a ‘secret airbase’ in Botswana run by the Americans who would come in, arrest the Zimbabwe security chiefs, and take over internal security until order was re-established.

Both the British and the US adamantly denied that they had any intention of sending troops to Zimbabwe or physically intervening in any way. Yes there is a base the US is using in Botswana. Yes the British Special Forces were (are) at the base doing training ever since their normal training base in Kenya had become less secure. However, the US does not want to jeopardise its opportunities in Africa to set up AFRICOM centres which will allow them to fight terrorists and the drug trade. The British, too, have little desire to extend their military reach in attacking Zimbabwe without regional agreement in advance. This is why the tale told by the MDC was so pernicious.

Even when the vote tally was finally made, and the 48% and 43% votes confirmed, the MDC leadership still refuses to participate in a runoff. However, in the interim its campaign of lies, smears and character assassinations aimed at seeking international support has alienated its own supporters in the country and unleashed a crescendo of violence which everyone was desperately seeking to avoid.

Biti continues to violate the Constitution by asserting that the results of the election show, on his say-so alone, that the MDC has won the first round of the election with a clear majority. It isn’t true and every observer affirms that this is not true. The tragedy is that the ‘international community’ buys this fiction because it is convenient to them. A Presidential election result is not made by a failed Trotskyite turned democrat deciding what the vote should be. Fair elections result from the observed and monitored counting of the ballots. Until that happens and is accepted, the newly-elected MDC Assemblymen and Senators will have to wait, the country will remain in suspension and the violence will likely continue. What a pity!

Robot  # 1 | 04.05.2008 23:51

As the old Shona proverb suggests, if the MDC drum plays at this pitch any longer it will certai...Read the full article.

katampe  # 2 | 05.05.2008 01:35

When you have a gradual violation of the constitution by the leaders of the MDC (Tsvangirai and Biti), won't there be a full blown violation if they eventually have the reins of power? But what is more worrying is the recipe that they are putting together to bake the cake of anarchy, especially when they get to power and return the rights of dispossessed lands back to white landowners. So far they appear to be fast ceding the moral high ground to rule in future based on their dubious attempts to ridicule a democratic process, while attempting to rob their people using the support of and propaganda of foreigners. It will be interesting to see how they would respond when the foreigners request for payback.

employlawone  # 3 | 05.05.2008 02:58

=katampe;4295013698>When you have a gradual violation of the constitution by the leaders of the MDC (Tsvangirai and Biti), won't there be a full blown violation if they eventually have the reins of power? But what is more worrying is the recipe that they are putting together to bake the cake of anarchy, especially when they get to power and return the rights of dispossessed lands back to white landowners. So far they appear to be fast ceding the moral high ground to rule in future based on their dubious attempts to ridicule a democratic process, while attempting to rob their people using the support of and propaganda of foreigners. It will be interesting to see how they would respond when the foreigners request for payback. Thank you of course your response and the main article as this 'explains' the reason why people are being brutalised and terroried all over Zimbabwe by 'war verterans' supposedly instigated by MDC?

dele26  # 4 | 05.05.2008 03:26

Dr Gary K Busch, You have successfully put together another brilliant piece Cheers Dele

aguabata  # 5 | 05.05.2008 15:56

Gary Busch Thank you for not joining the crowd. mugabe has been called a tyrant, likened as Idi Amin, Sadam hussein, yet he ran a relatively fair election, better than what you get in most african countries, i felt pain when Reuben Abati criticised him without any objectivity just because that's how people felt. Mugabe is better than most african presidents in character and ability, the southern african countries know this, they understand the western politics, thats why they wont come out in public and do as the west wants them to do.

tonsoyo  # 6 | 05.05.2008 21:42

Yeah right, I am not buying this. The MDC might not be totally innocent as they may want us to believe, but if the situation is as straight forward as declared by our all-knowing Gary Busch and if he did publish the result three days after the election, why did it take Mugabe's government weeks to release the result of such a "perfectly" done elections when all the result had already been called in by representatives few hours after? Not even the application of the opposition to the Supreme Court will make them release the result until all the abracadbra has been done. I refused to be fooled, I do not care what the opposition would do or who is supporting them, Mugabe's time is up, he should quit and let a new hand take over, I think 28 years is enough for one man to lead a country to the abysmal low like he did, and that should be now!

ocnus  # 7 | 06.05.2008 01:27

I am pleased to know that Tonsoyo doesn't want to be fooled. Perhaps he doesn't know that there were domestic monitors at work all through the election and the recount. The Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) has urged the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) to adhere to Section 110 of the Electoral Act and conduct a re-run of the presidential elections within 21 days. ZESN, a network of 38 non-governmental organizations, had observed all aspects of the 29 March 2008 harmonized elections. More than a month after the polls, the presidential elections results were made public last week. For the first time in his 28-year-old rule, President Robert Mugabe was defeated by his opponent, Morgan Tsvangirai, the candidate of the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change. Mr Tsvangirai polled 47.9% of the votes, compared to Mr Mugabe's 43.2%. Since none of the candidates secured more than 50% of the votes, a re-run became a necessity. So, if the SADC observers say it was fair and the local ZESN say the election and count were fair, it takes a mighty great sense of self-importance to sit on the other side of the world and make pronouncemensts of fairness and that Mugabe's 'time is up'. Perhaps he will grace us with an opinion on the upcoming Burmese election.

tonsoyo  # 8 | 06.05.2008 09:05

=ocnus;4295014058>I am pleased to know that Tonsoyo doesn't want to be fooled. Perhaps he doesn't know that there were domestic monitors at work all through the election and the recount. The Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) has urged the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) to adhere to Section 110 of the Electoral Act and conduct a re-run of the presidential elections within 21 days. ZESN, a network of 38 non-governmental organizations, had observed all aspects of the 29 March 2008 harmonized elections. More than a month after the polls, the presidential elections results were made public last week. For the first time in his 28-year-old rule, President Robert Mugabe was defeated by his opponent, Morgan Tsvangirai, the candidate of the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change. Mr Tsvangirai polled 47.9% of the votes, compared to Mr Mugabe's 43.2%. Since none of the candidates secured more than 50% of the votes, a re-run became a necessity. So, if the SADC observers say it was fair and the local ZESN say the election and count were fair, it takes a mighty great sense of self-importance to sit on the other side of the world and make pronouncemensts of fairness and that Mugabe's 'time is up'. Perhaps he will grace us with an opinion on the upcoming Burmese election. Now what is all these about. An election where all the international observers were shut out. You can continue to try to fool me even though I will never be fooled. We have seen all those so called "domestic monitors" before. We remember Abacha's five political parties where all of those "independent" political parties adopted Abacha as their Presidential candidate and were aptly described by Uncle Bola Ige as the "five fingers of a leper's hand" You still did not answer my question, why did it take them a whole month to declare the result of such a "straight forward" elections? What is Mugabe doing contesting another election after 28 years of running that country to a standstill? What about grooming and sponsoring another candidate for the same election? Mugabe time is up! Let him get out now or be pushed!

Afeni  # 9 | 06.05.2008 10:54

Regardless of who won the first round of voting, Mugabe can't expect us to believe he can defeat the MDC in a re-run when the original vote was 43% (For Mugabe) to 48% (For MDC). Mugabe ought to concede defeat and spare his country additional expenses.