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Nigerian leaders (both past and present) have deliberately excluded ordinary Nigerians from direct participation in the system of government that dictates their governance. A good example of this exclusionary policy can be deduced from the past activities of these leaders, most of them have barged into power without any clear mandate of leadership from common Nigerians. Again, the flawed 2007 Nigerian Presidential election is another clear evidence of this continued exclusionary policy of Nigerian leaders. Nigerians were completely disenfranchised during the 2007 Presidential election.
The exclusionary policy has not only armed our leaders with unmitigated power to loot the nation’s treasury, but also to insulate them from taking any responsibility for their insensitivity, callousness, and nonchalant attitude to most of the problems facing ordinary Nigerians today.
The wall of insensitivity our leaders have built around themselves is so impenetrable that it has only helped to compound the frustration of many Nigerians. Some Nigerians have even started to wonder if our leaders have ears and eyes. To make matters worst, these leaders are in control of all avenues and machinery that can be deployed to initiate new changes, whether it is the military, police, or judiciary machinery in the country. Therefore, whatever options ordinary citizens have to override the exclusionary policy of our leaders are limited.
I strongly believe that one of the reasons why our leaders have succeeded in their exclusionary policy and remained insensitive to the plights of ordinary Nigerians is the fact that we, the people, have never spoken with one voice. The communication gape that has existed among us for these many years has to be filled with a loud, united voice that represents the voices of the majority of Nigerians. This loud voice will translate into an expression that says, “We are stronger together.”
There has been little or no credible statistical data or hard evidence to support collective opinions of Nigerians to describe their feelings, needs, priorities on issues that are pertinent to their governance.
This is not to negate the facts that some Nigerian television stations and news medias have sometimes conducted “man on the street” or “market women” interviews in Lagos, Enugu, or Abuja to solicit their opinions on such issues as ‘high cost of living,’ or ‘scarcity of fuel,’ etc. However, these interviews are not statistically significant to represent the opinions of majority of Nigerians all over the country; therefore, these interviews are not potent enough to spur our leaders to action.
We have witnessed in the past some sporadic or knee-jerk reactions from frustrated Nigerians, union workers, again not representing the sentiments of majority of Nigerians, who took their frustrations to the streets in response to some unpopular decisions that were handed down by our leaders. All these demonstrations, including press and editorial opinions are steps in the right direction to express our frustrations to our leaders. I am not trying to condemn any of them. No! I would like to suggest that it would take some careful planning, organization, and assurance that the overwhelming majority of Nigerians are on board to support whatever objectives we want to achieve, if our intensions were to make very serious and lasting impact on our leaders.
Apparently, our previous methods of seeking redress from our leaders have not yielded many dividends, and that is why we are still in the same quagmire that has enveloped us for more than twenty years.
It is imperative that ordinary Nigerians do not succumb to our leaders’ diabolic plans to make our voices irrelevant to our governance.
One way to override the exclusionary policy of our leaders and make our voices heard without participating in any of the government-controlled machinery, is for ordinary Nigerians to establish, participate, and continue to maintain a privately owned and credible statistical data bank of our opinions on issues that are pertinent to us. I am not a statistician by profession, but I believe that we have statisticians in most of our Nigerian universities and institutions of higher learning that can carry out this simple exercise. Some privately owned businesses, individuals, the news media, and TV stations in Nigeria can also conduct these surveys and their results analyzed within some margin of errors.
Ordinary Nigerians can call in to register their opinions on some crucial issues like the state of the country in general, especially on leadership, corruption, cost of living, education, health, agriculture, and on some controversial decisions by our leaders. These issues and others like them could be addressed in the survey.
What is going to be very important about these polls and surveys is their credibility.
The importance of surveys in a repressive government like Nigeria cannot be over-emphasized. First, it will give a voice to disenfranchised Nigerians by providing them with the opportunity to express their opinions on certain issues that affect their welfare.
Secondly, polling information is an important tool in the hands of opposition leaders to confront the ruling party on certain issues that are of paramount to the majority of ordinary Nigerians. For example, it will not be smart for any ruling party to try to ignore a survey that shows 95% of the people in support of resending tax increase on the price of fuel. It will also be foolish to underrate a 99% poll result that calls for Mr. Yar’Adua to step down for rigging 2007 Nigerian Presidential election.
Thirdly, and most importantly too, when surveys are properly executed, the results can give you the correct ‘temperature’ of the people you want to get on board in order to achieve certain objectives. Either to call for a strike, or to start a revolution. People are more willing to make some sacrifices after they have indicated some strong support for your course, especially if they were honest about it.
Again, if these polls or surveys are not skewed or corrupted, they could be used to predict the out come of future events. In Nigeria, where rigging of elections have become the rules rather than exceptions, polling can be used to highlight potential frauds in some elections. The more accurate the polling results are, the more reliable and important tools they will become in the hands of the potential users.
It is very important that these polls or surveys are conducted independently, and not corrupted by government officials, politicians, or people who have special interests on the out come of the polling results.
No, I do not mean skewed or corrupted survey results that assigned 90% victory to candidates in an election where there was no voting conducted, missing or invisible ballot papers in some voting stations.
Let me reiterate that what we need is a credible polling methodology and results that will meet most of the international standards, and help to validate the voices of common man and woman in Nigeria today.
Polls are often used in more advanced countries like the USA, Britain, France, Germany, etc to predict the out come of future events. Public opinion polls have been used in the past to sway the politicians in these countries to change their votes on certain issues they have otherwise made up their minds to the contrary.
On June 26, 2007, an Amnesty Bill for Illegal immigrants was defeated in the USA Senate because of very strong public opinion that opposed the Bill.
2008 is an election year in America, and as the election moves from state to state, so are polling activities on Americans to determine which candidates will earn their votes. These polling results, in most cases, have been accurate within the margin of error. It is very fascinating to watch how things unfold. These polls are conducted independently and are very reliable. I have to acknowledge that there have been very few miscalculations in some of the polling results, but these are exceptions, and have very credible explanations for the mistakes.
Before the New-Hampshire Democratic election of January 2008, Senator Oboma was leading Senator Hillary Clinton in every poll. After the election was conducted, Mrs. Clinton won the election with 3% margin. The explanation for the error in polling was attributed to the last minute surge of people that voted for Mrs. Clinton, because they were swayed after watching the last minute emotional interview she gave to some reporters before the election started. This result is an exception, and should not be used to discredit polls or surveys in general.
There is no guarantee that Nigerian leaders will not try to ignore these public opinion polls, no matter how credible they are, from ordinary Nigerians. The difference this time is that ordinary Nigerians will have the opportunity to express themselves on some issues that are affecting their welfare. Nigerian opinion polls, coupled with the selective editorial opinions of the press, internet blogs, and the news media, will be insurmountable for any government or leader. It would be tantamount to trying to stop a runaway train.
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Posted by Robot| 28.01.2008 15:01