Except it becomes clear that Obasanjo is hell-bent on remaining in office after next May, the race to the 2007 presidential election will begin to rev up sooner than later. Many aspirants are already girding their political loins. The political atmosphere is getting frenzied up, and even this early, some politically-motivated killing have already been recorded in Osun, Lagos, Plateau and, I think, Benue. As things stand now, it is perhaps only the South-West (SW) that is not showing much interest in the race. Their position is understandable, given the fact of Obasanjo’s presidency since 1999. But, importantly, the current position of the SW makes it the arbiter, the beautiful bride, whom every other contending group cannot afford not to woo. In the matter of 2007 elections, you ignore the SW at your own political peril. Whereas one would have preferred that any good candidate take over from Obasanjo, even if he/she is another Yoruba, Nigeria is not an ideal society where the right candidates are chosen based on personal merit. Instead it is a country where ethnic affiliations hold sway. This is the reality that we must begin to face. That said, the fact of Obasanjo’s imminent departure (hopefully) from Aso Rock brings Nigeria, once again, to the issue of a peaceful transition of power. Given this background, I now move to the main point of this discourse. But first, pardon, another short preamble is necessary. Nigeria has been governed at one time or the other by persons from the North (N), SW and East of the country. Although this has not been an equitable power-holding, the fact remains as stated. Nigeria has since been restructured into six zones. At present, the South-South (SS) South-East (SE) and N are contending for the presidency. Of these, the N and the SS appear more desperate for power than SE. The last statement does not in any way negate the desire of the SE to clinch power too. Many claims have been made by the SS and SE, most bothering on the reality that N has dominated power since 1960. On the other hand, the N has advanced ‘strong’ counter-claims. One notable counter-claim being that the SS, as part of the larger defunct Eastern region, shared in Ironsi’s short-lived rule. This argument can be seen as true or false, depending on which side of the divide one belongs. And now, my fervent plea: I beg the N and the SE to allow the SS produce the next president for the rest of us. There is no far-fetched reason for this plea. At the risk of sounding trite, the SS produces most of the resource which gives the nation almost all of its revenue. Shouldn’t that zone then be compensated? There is a precedence for political compensation, the SW having been so compensated with power (at least between 1999 and 2003), for the senseless annulment of the 1993 elections. So, my plea for the compensation of the SS with power is not outlandish. In making this plea, I bring some salient points to mind, in the matter of the N having ruled Nigeria much longer than other zones. Whereas it is true that most of the northerners who ruled Nigeria previously were military men who usurped power by the barrel of the gun in coups and counter-coups, can it not also be rightly argued that these people did not really represent anybody’s interest? An important remark in this regards is if coup-plotting is the exclusive preserve of the N. Everyone know how risky a venture coup-plotting can be, a risk which as it appears, southern military elements were unwilling to take. Much has been hinted on this matter by Umaru Dikko. But, it is not clear to me why military elements of southern origin appear unwilling to tread the part of coup-making. Does this have to do with the not-too-tidy attempt by Nzeogwu and company? Does Diya’s and Obasanjo’s failed coup attempts (as alleged) reflect this southern ‘weakness’ for coup plotting? Does anyone know? This is not to say that coup-plotting is honourable. No it is not. But I believe these questions need addressing. It is also true that the SS has always worked with and supported the N in political matters. Again, it is true that in spite of many years of northern rule, many basic things (for example educational opportunities), in comparison with the South, are still lacking in that part of the country. Could this be the root of the claim that the very many military rule by northern elements does not translate to the N having ruled Nigeria? Anyway it is put or seen, the fact remains that Nigerians of northern heritage, military or no military, has ruled Nigeria long enough, and the SS has been a faithful supporter of the N, so that it becomes a moral duty for the N to compensate the SS. Having elaborated all these ‘truths’, and knowing that Nigeria (in spite of MASSOB and the Niger Delta wahala) is not running away tomorrow, I implore our northern brethren to let power remain in the south, specifically in the SS, till the next possible time. Now to the SE. Like you, I am also Igbo, in all ramification of the word. As with the N, I make a similar plea to you. Please let the SS have the presidency. Do not contest the position with them. In making this plea, some truths are also evident. It is true that the Eastern region (defunct) has ruled Nigeria only once and for six months or so. It is also arguable that Ironsi represented all the components of the defunct Eastern region (being the current SE and SS). But come to think of it, did Ironsi actually represent anyone? Isn’t Ironsi’s case similar to those of the northern military elements elaborated in the foregoing? This being the case, therefore, only the N (Tafawa Balewa and Shagari) and the SW (Obasanjo) can be said to have ever representatively ruled Nigeria. As a highly mobile people, it is also true that the Igbo have by sheer reason of their spread contributed immensely to Nigeria’s socio-economic development. Whether this contribution is noted by other Nigerians is another matter. But, in spite of cases of ethnic upheavals in parts of the country, credit must go to the SW, N and SS for accommodating the SE in their various town and cities. As they gear up for the impending elections, I will ask the SE to remember the saying that he who laughs last laughs best. I will like you to show the attribute for which your name (IGBO) is noted. Of the letters of that name (I will not repeat what I, B, and O stand for), I emphasise the G, standing for graciousness. Please, be gracious in the matter of 2007 presidential election. Let the SS, wholesale, produce the next president. In this regard, you have already shown the capacity to accommodate by statements from you such as ‘it is either the SE or the SS’. That is a sign of good omen. I used the word wholesale above for a reason. There have been several articles by SE elements canvassing for Igbo presidential candidates from the SS. In their opinion, this arrangement will satisfy both the SS and the SE. Ordinarily and were Nigeria to be a country where tribal affiliations play no significant role; this arrangement would have been perfect. But alas, the situation is different. In geo-political zones with more than one ethnic group, emphasis is placed on the components of the zones, rather than the zone as an entity. In this regard, questions have been raised on why an Igbo would want to ‘usurp’ the opportunity of the SS. Now, the issue of core-SS and the SS-Igbo is beginning to play out. Much has been harped on this matter by the Ijaw leaders Edwin Clark and Joseph Evah (please see the link below for Evah’s take on this). (http://www.vanguardngr.com/articles/2002/niger_delta/nd510082006.html). To proponents of this argument, if an SS-Igbo gets the presidency, such arrangement effectively means that the Igbo will use the SS opportunity as well as theirs, when eventually the position is zoned to the SE. This scenario raises new questions. Could this be why the issue of Peter Odili’s purported presidential bid and his ‘’Igboness’’ keeps creeping up in the SS? I wish Prof. Tam David West, who is on top of this issue, will shed more light on it. Given this scenario, I see the issue of an Igbo aspiring from the SS as a cocked gun ready to be fired. In my mind, this and the need to bring the post-civil war animosity between the Igbo and their smaller neighbours to an end are enough reasons for the SE to support the emergence of a core SSner, no half measures. Like Nigeria is in West Africa, the Igbo is the ‘‘big brother’’ of the old East, and big brothers are supposed to protect their ‘‘small brothers’’. An Igbo ruling Nigeria at this point may or may not bring the desired dividends to ordinary Nigerians (this is arguable of course), but most importantly Nigeria is not running away tomorrow. The presidency cannot continuously elude the Igbo. It will certainly come, but at the right time. If the SS takes over from Obasanjo, at the end of their tenure, the wahala from them (no sarcasm intended) will end, or at least subside. After that, the issue of who rules next becomes reduced to the SE and N, and, as with matters involving less groups of contenders, becomes therefore more easily manageable. I will refrain from delving into post 2015 (by which time the SS would have consummated their presidency). That bridge will be crossed when Nigeria gets there. I believe that many of the aspirants today are angling so seriously with the ‘now-or-never’ mentality because they feel ‘tomorrow’ is too far to wait for. They think they will be too old to contest then, if they fail to get it now, what with the new 8-year turn-by-turn idea. But the zones of Nigeria are a population of people, not any one or few individuals, so that even if one member of any zone fails to clinch the presidency now and therefore may become unavailable (by reason of death, health or old age) in future, there are still millions more from any zone, with the capacity to provide good leadership. And, a word for the SS. The fact of a SS house divided against itself has been observed. The SS is actual a babel of voices, what with so many different ethnic nationalities with varied interests. If the SS wants the presidency, this division should be closed. The Ijaw, being the largest ethnic group in the SS, should show some good leadership. The much-awaited core-SS presidential candidate does not have to be an Ijaw, but it is well and good if that be the case. I say this because of the recent observation that the Ijaw is becoming synonymous with the SS. With their newfound over-lordship, the Ijaw are arrogating many SS matters to themselves. This should not be the case. Other SSners should be allowed to have more say in the affairs of the SS. I believe the Ijaw position stems from oil production. But the last time I checked, oil is also significantly produced in many non-Ijaw communities in Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Delta states. This is in addition to oil from Ondo, Abia, Imo, Cross River and Edo, states which have little or no Ijaw population. Instead of carrying on the way they have been, the Ijaw should rather work together with other SSners, and indeed all Nigerians, to present credible candidates. Some fears (on possible secession) have been expressed by other Nigerians about a SS presidency, given their influence on our oil-based economy, and political power, when it comes. Ditto for the SE, on account of MASSOB. These are mere fears. The Nigerian people have become so intertwined that secession will not be a first option. But this is not to say that separation is a given impossibility. As I wind down, I go back to the SE. I remember an Igbo elder who prides in reminding everyone that the dreg of palm wine is for elders. I know also that the dreg of palm wine is very much cherished by palm wine drinkards and is actually where the ‘action’ is. But importantly, before you drink the dreg of palm wine, you must drink through the upper and mid phases. Please my people of the SE, have the dreg of the palm wine on the issue of 2007 presidential election by letting the SS drink first. At this point, I link this axiom of the palm wine dreg to the saying that he who laughs last laughs best, believing that this linkage is well understood by the Igbo. Thank you N and SE for heeding (in anticipation) this plea.
Christian Dimkpa, Plant Biotechnologist and Max Planck PhD fellow, writes from Germany.
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