There are three trains of thought traversing the political terrain. The first is that of the durable conservative establishment which has been seasoned by decades in power and is notably personified by titans like the former heads of state, Ibrahim Babangida and Mohamadu Buhari, and a more contemporary model in Vice president, Atiku Abubakar. There is also the centrist reformist tendency represented by President Olusegun Obasanjo and his allies, notably young Turks within the PDP. Thirdly there is a group, which I have dubbed the ‘new progressives’_ the latter day incarnation of the Lagos-Ibadan axis politicos who made a name for themselves during the nineties by portraying themselves as heirs of Obafemi Awolowo and by venerating his place in the Nigerian political cosmology.  The old progressives failed to attain national victory and failed to renew their fourth republic vehicle, the Alliance for Democracy (AD) with youthful vision. Instead they were hijacked and derailed by the gerontocrats of the Afenifere. The new progressives are represented by the likes of Professor Pat Utomi, Adams Oshiomhole and Reverend Chris Okotie. Their unique selling point derives from their histories of social activism and their marketability as alternatives to the political thought or lack thereof embodied by the PDP, ACD and the ANPP. They have age on their side and therefore the concurrent advantage of being seen as exemplifying the virgin innocence and youthful promise of Nigerian politics in contrast to the aging dinosaurs that are increasingly being seen as relics of our history. Because of their non-involvement in politics until now, they also do not have any burden of past failures to contend with. The new progressives seem to have so much going for them but they have even more liabilities on the other side of the ledger. Whatever the hopes inspired by the candidacies of Utomi and Oshiomhole, they need to be tempered with reason. The allegation frequently leveled against the conservative establishment by the progressives is that the conservatives are disconnected from the social reality of the Nigerian masses. And while this is largely true, I submit that the fortunes of the new progressives will be defined by another kind of disconnection. It is that between them and the political reality of the Nigerian state. In my view, a thorough investigation of both realities is necessary to yield the intelligence required for victory in 2007.

I believe that while the new progressives have the intellectual and moral credentials to contest for power, they lack the political savvy and intelligence that are vital to attaining victory. This is why despite the rhetoric of the Okoties and their ilk, the new progressives or alternative politicians will not win in 2007. Traditionally, the progressive school has always maintained a readymade thesis explaining its consistent electoral failures. It is the subversion of the electorate by the elite and the rigging of elections at all levels. This thesis has become so popular that the expectation of conservative manipulation of the electoral process seems to have excused the progressives from the conventional rigours of politicking.  Rigging and electoral manipulation are factual and undesirable elements of Nigerian politics but this is not all there is to the failure of the Nigerian progressives. The idea that if not for rigging, the progressives would have ruled Nigeria is false. The subversion of the electoral process is only one factor (and a misdemeanour of which the old progressives themselves can scarcely claim innocence) of their political inferiority.  It requires a re-reading of Nigerian history to discover that Awolowo could not have won the 1979 elections. His lack of political stock in the north and in the east was sufficient to capsize his ambitions. Awolowo made massive contributions to Nigerian policy and political thought, but his personal politics were flawed and contributed to the perception of him in some quarters as being nothing more than a Yoruba irredentist. Similarly, Olu Falae was never going to defeat Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999. The latter had a more nationally acceptable brand image despite his lack of acceptance by the Yoruba political establishment. The moral of these elections is that political victories are possible in Nigeria when a sufficiently national brand is on parade. This is the real significance of MKO Abiola’s 1993 victory and Obasanjo’s victory (though of a lesser quality) in 1999. Ironically those who sought to fight for Abiola missed the point and reduced the campaign to an ethnic struggle rather than a national movement. Abiola had won a national mandate, which some of his followers ill-advisedly reduced to a ticket for parochial politics. Both Abiola and Obasanjo had expansive political brand images necessary for victory in our pluralistic society.

Secondly, the conservative establishment has always been more adept at building and sustaining networks and alliances over long periods. For example, the PDP is linked genetically to the Second republic National Party of Nigeria (NPN) and thus the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) of the first republic. For this reason, the conservatives have always had a wide range of allegiances to call upon in each political dispensation. By contrast the alliance between Awolowo’s Action Group and Joseph Tarka’s United Middle-belt Congress (UMBC) was never maximized and was consequently abandoned by subsequent generations of progressives. The prospect of an alliance between the northern minorities and the southern minorities (in today’s parlance, the Middle-belt and the Niger-delta or South-south), potentially the strongest geopolitical coalition in Nigeria, was never realized. Such an alliance has been obstructed largely by the arrogance and hubris that has defined the Lagos-Ibadan political axis. Over the years the progressives have allowed themselves to shrink into the limiting confines of this axis. Today’s progressives might have goodwill but little or no networks and alliances to call upon. Goodwill is all very well but networks and alliances are the machineries of political advancement.

Their lack of political infrastructure and support systems means that the progressives are aiming for a target that is out of range. If they had been building their networks over the years it would have been a different matter. Many are starting from scratch. Consequently they will stretch themselves too thin and lose out without even minor victories.  This is why I believe that Professor Patrick Utomi would have been better served running for the governorship of Delta, his home state. He is of far better quality than many of the names in contention. Delta State would have provided a sufficient theatre to expend his political resources and horn his political skills. Similarly, Adams Oshiomhole would do well to run for the governorship of Edo State. This doesn’t mean that victory for these gentlemen is guaranteed but the states provide foundations upon which they can build durable track records and political structures that will stand them in good stead for future contests.

While the conservatives have been assisted by a variety of factors including vote rigging (a sport over which they cannot be accused of a monopoly), they have also shown greater dexterity and mastery of real politik.   The progressives always seem to approach politics with a certain naiveté and they have demonstrated a frustrating inability to build the right alliances with ideological allies everywhere. Those progressives often fail to appreciate the expanse of Nigeria in geopolitical terms. They also do not sufficiently respect the adroitness and strategic competence of their conservative rivals. In view of these issues, I submit that the new progressives are still some years away from building the capacity to gain power nationally and will make little impact in 2007.

In one of the ironies of our history, the greatest hope for change lies in the emergence of a centrist reformist cell from the bowels of the conservative establishment. When Obasanjo was elected in 1999, he was marketed as a reliable servant of the conservative order, an elder statesman who would stabilize the polity by bridging the military-civilian and north-south divides. The last thing, he could have been suspected of was of being a closet reformer. In the last eight years, Obasanjo has more than rocked the boat; he is in the process of sinking it and building a new one. He has thus emerged as the patriarchal reformer of modern Nigeria and may yet preside over a turning point in our history.

The internal conflict in the PDP is a struggle between the patrician conservatives and the centrist reformists. The schism between the president and the vice president may also be interpreted in this light to some extent. The appearance of the Advanced Congress of Democrats (ACD) is of no consequence in itself. It was formed by conservative elements that have lost out in Obasanjo’s reconfiguration of the PDP.  The ACD is the shed skin of the ruling party; a husk that will fulfill its purpose as a vehicle for the last stand of the conservatives in 2007. This is why so much depends on the outcome of the PDP primaries.  The rebirth of the party will be complete if it selects a centrist reformist ticket made up of competent political operatives of whom the party can boast quite a few.

I realize that there is a certain absurdity in describing the PDP as a reformist party but Nigerian politics has its ironies. History suggests that there is a logic of change found in revolutions and political shifts. It is that change agents and reformers know that they cannot afford to indulge in the luxury of unbridled idealism. Certain compromises must be negotiated as a means to serve an ultimate end. This is the pragmatism that has seen Obasanjo cast in an unlikely role as reformer and the PDP as a vehicle for these reforms. The bane of the progressives among others has been a tendency towards an arrogant Puritanism and an idealism unanchored to political reality. That is why they won’t win in 2007.       

Robot  # 1 | 04.08.2006 13:04

With forty political parties currently registered in Nigeria...Read the full article.

Exxcuzme  # 2 | 04.08.2006 14:25

I would say well said but this is a correct analysis of Naija political landscape. 2007 will be interesting. If the so called ACD succeeds, we might be doing a"yeye rolling like yeye football" as Great Fela would sing. As you well pointed out, the failure of progressive is the inabiltity to build and sustain good network across regions of like minded people. I think most of them got this individualist ego character that they cannot form a good alliance. See what is happening with PRONACO. I am not sure what will happen come 2007 but it will be interesting to see.

Adebowale  # 3 | 05.08.2006 09:37

This is one of the best written and most realistic articles I have read on Nigerian politics in a long time. Well done Chris your analysis is right on target. I hope those involved get to read this article. One of the things that has really worked against the ‘progressives’ is their inability to subsume their own personal goal/ambitions to that of the collective group. They think tactically instead of strategically, and unfortunately the people around them don’t seem to be giving them the right advice. Few of them are real consensus builders, and unfortunately this is what it takes to deal with human beings. Few of them have the local base or financial means to fight any serious political battle on the national front, which is why they really need each other. The only hope they have is to humble themselves and work together as a team. This however presupposes their goals are similar and can be coalesced into one. But who is out there who can unite the progressives??? We need a very humble, courageous, insightful, intelligent, highly motivated and principled individual. Someone who will give them all a reality check and encourage them to go for positions they can realistically win. ARE THERE ANY OUT THERE ????? There is an urgent need for great men now in Nigeria, people who are not looking to be served but to serve. People who are not really looking for positions but on how to get the right people into position (incidentally they have some in the conservation camp). Great people will always be pushed to the top. People who say not my agenda but how can we get this nation moving, how best can we harness our tremendous human and material resources. Until we find some in the progressive camp I am not sure they will get very far. Most of them should be in the senate and governorship races; very few have a remote chance for the top job.

VOR  # 4 | 06.08.2006 17:02

But who is out there who can unite the progressives??? We need a very humble, courageous, insightful, intelligent, highly motivated and principled individual. Someone who will give them all a reality check and encourage them to go for positions they can realistically win. ARE THERE ANY OUT THERE ????? There is an urgent need for great men now in Nigeria, people who are not looking to be served but to serve. People who are not really looking for positions but on how to get the right people into position (incidentally they have some in the conservation camp). Great people will always be pushed to the top. People who say not my agenda but how can we get this nation moving, how best can we harness our tremendous human and material resources. Until we find some in the progressive camp I am not sure they will get very far. Most of them should be in the senate and governorship races; very few have a remote chance Well said Adebowale. The trouble with the progressives (some of them I will say) is their "know it all approach" Nigerian politics right now is different to what is practised in Europe and America. You need to use some native intelligenceto have an impact .... you know the politics practised in the SW is different from that in the SE likewise the politics in the SE is different from the one practised in the North and SS. You need people familiar with the system, grown in the system and sometime even developed the system to get anywhere.....this I believe is where the conservatives come in! You are right that there are some in the conservative fold that can work with the progressives, these people are just as fed up (even more) with the situation in the country but cannot do much because their peers have turned to jeun jeun kari..ka...chop politicians, and the younger generation (progressives)tar them with the same brush as the jeun jeun old brigade. I have a mentor, this guy a stalwart during the AG and UPN days is a mine of information, I have learnt so much from him and respect him because he is not one that goes cap in hand begging for political posts, contract or positions for his children. Now why can't the progressives find such men and women to work with? They need people like this!! The sooner the progressives learn that Nigerian politics as at now is not one of big grammer etc the better. It is dirty, bloody and very expensive and in order to break into the game you need some native intelligence which majority of them currently lack. I have noticed a somewhat intolerant and nonchalant with the progressives. Take for example the Utomi group, the ones representing him on this website. Uche Nworah posted a story using terrible pictures, ok, the deed was done, the next thing to do was to tender an apology if any offence was caused...none came!!........this is a no no, you being the PR person for the campaign for Nigerians in Diaspora have got up the backs of potential female (and even male) supporters, what do you think these people will do and tell their friends and family back home.... this episode may have taken away the credibility of the PR person before the campaign even begins!!! I know he is a freelance writer and all but he needs to be extremely careful now on what he says and writes about that will be seen by people in the diaspora and even back home. Also the responses given to questions or queries regarding their candidate is atimes intolerant and sharp.......in politics you need to learn the act of patience and tolerance!!! people will say things that will wind you up but you just need to step above it and deal with it without being insultive or dismissive. No one has a monopoly of knowledge, right now we need all hands on deck (meaningful hands) to save the country. These hands should be old and young, conservative and progressives from every corner of the federation There is another group of progressives who I believe have got a handle on this, I think INEC just registered their party two weeks ago.........can't for the life of me remember their name now..... there are so many of them. Let's hope these guys get it right because a lot hangs on the balance!!! I hope theyall take this in good faith. V.

busanga  # 5 | 07.08.2006 08:16

Five Star Political Analysis. The bane of idealism is utopianism that has no place in modern day rofo-rofo politics