In an earlier article titled: Anambra South Senatorial Bye-election: A test case of Governor Obi’s popularity (or lack of it) and published in this and other media outfits - see: Anambra South Senatorial Bye-election: A Test Case Of Governor Obi’s Popularity (or Lack Of It) I wrote:

“.....It is much easier to rig an election conducted nation-wide as was the case in the May 2007 elections than a localised and one-off senatorial bye-election that will be the case in Anambra state for the Anambra South senatorial seat. For in a nation-wide election, anti-rigging resources like election monitors, security operatives, etc are over stretched and thin on the ground but in a localised bye-election, anti-rigging resources are in abundance and the in this case, the APGA led Anambra state government should be able to provide abundant resources (that is at its disposal) to make sure that this election is free and fair. In effect, what I am saying is that there is no reason why this bye-election cannot be reasonably, fair play.

From the above paragraph, it is crystal clear that this election is for APGA to loose rather than PDP to win. However, APGA is not on the ground and thanks to Governor Peter Obi. There are no APGA representation at ward, local government and zonal levels in the state.”

PDP did not win these bye-elections rather Governor Peter Obi lost them and this is now the dilemma for Anambra electorates but most importantly for his party; APGA. PDP will not win any election under normal circumstances in Anambra state for the party is hated, for the party is a calamity, for the party is a disaster and the state is still recovering from PDP inflicted malaise under their last administration from 1999 to 2003; the Governor Mbadinuju era. Infact, Nigeria may disintegrate as a country if PDP is not checkmated at the centre. This last statement is for another day though.

There was no rigging in these last two elections as attested by the body of evidence on the ground, including statements from the clergy. What happened was that Governor Obi was declared persona-non-grata, was given a vote of no confidence by the electorate in Anambra state. Since there was no other party on ground in the state except PDP, the party benefited from this surprising, unexpected and early Christmas gift presented to it by Governor Obi.

Irrespective of Governor Obi’s vociferations, his administration is a calamity, a disaster, a complete failure, a complete waste of peoples vote as evidenced by facts on the ground. These bye-elections were an avenue for the people of the state to tell him what a disaster he is and they rightly did so. His unpopularity is such that the people of the state will rather choose the devil, which is PDP than him - and they have just done that. For the electorate in Anambra state to prefer Mbadinuju (for he is synonymous with PDP) over Governor Obi says it all.

I have consistently argued that the problem with Governor Obi’s administration is that the job of a governor is way over him, too cerebral for him to tackle. He was an orange juice trader (visit: http://nigeriaworld.com/articles/2006/nov/042.html) and the transition from an orange juice trader to an executive governor especially of a challenging state like Anambra is far too much for him to handle. He bit more than he can swallow and has been found out by this gubernatorial position.

I make haste to posit that no state governor in Nigeria will loose a bye-election to the opposition like Governor Obi just did. PDP will not win any INEC umpired election in Governor Fashola’s Lagos state or Malam Ibrahim Shekaru’s Kano state. More so, these two bye-elections were held in the Ikemba Nnewi’s constituency. For the uninitiated, Ikemba Nnewi is Dim Odumegwu Ojukwu, the foremost Igbo leader as at date. The temporal and spiritual leader of Governor Obi’s political party, APGA. The Ikemba has equally given up on Governor Obi otherwise the world would have heard his dissenting voice.

However, there is a leeway for Governor Obi to redeem himself. That leeway is for Governor Obi to be a true statesman and acknowledge defeat, which is very rare in African politics – think about Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe. That leeway is for Governor Obi not to seek election as the APGA candidate in 2010. That leeway is for Governor Obi to use all the tools at his disposal now to support another APGA candidate come the 2010 election. That leeway is for Governor Obi to go back to his orange juice business and rather than being an importer, be a manufacturer and an exporter earning scarce foreign exchange for his much beloved Fidelity bank.

The result of these bye-elections has also thrown a serious challenge to APGA high command; the challenge being that Governor Obi is a serious electoral liability. APGA high command should constructively negotiate Governor Obi out of office or seek irrelevance come 2010. In Nigeria, we play winner take all politics with its attendant consequence to the losers. PDP is sensing blood in Anambra state; God forbid.

Odenigbo of Ukpor has spoken.

Robot  # 1 | 23.02.2009 07:34

In an earlier article titled: Anambra South Senatorial Bye-election: A test case of Governor Obi’s popularity (or lack of it) and published in this and other media outfits - see: Anambra South Senatoria...I wrote: “.....It is much easier to rig an election conducted nation-wide as was the case in the May 2007 elections than a localised and one-off senatorial bye-election that will be the case in Anambra state for the Anambra South senatorial seat. For in a nation-wide election, anti-rigging resources like election monitors, security operatives, etc are over stretched and thin on the ground but in a localised bye-election, anti-rigging resources are in abundance and the in this c...Read the full article.