LEADERSHIP, DECISION MAKING, THE NORTH, MILITARY AND DEVELOPMENT.
------------------------------
------------------------------
------
A SYSTEM ANALYSIS. (PART 1)
---------------------------
WRITTEN BY BODE ELUYERA.
MOSCOW, RUSSIA.
abm1900@mail.ru
As far back as 27th January 1961 late Chief Obafemi Awolowo delivered a lecture titled Politics and Religion in which he stated :
"In private life, before we entrust our personal or business affairs to anyone, we take steps to inquire into his qualifications both as to competence and character. Such an inquiry as this is done in private, because what is at issue is a private concern. But the competence and character of politicians must of a necessity be examined in the full glare of public limelight Because what is at issue is the welfare of the community or nation. In the management of private affairs, a gross mistake would only affect the fortunes of one man or a family or a small group of persons. A serious error of judgement in the management of public affairs might adversely affect the lives and fortunes of millions of people.
For this reason, there is need for the competence and character of public men to be subjected to severer and stricter scrutiny and that mainly in public than those of persons engaged in private concerns.
Abuse or vilification in private or public life is to be deplored, because it stems from a. mind which is depraved and warped. But the community which a politician seeks to serve is an amalgam of saints and sinners, with a sprinkling of the former as against an over-abundance of the latter. The
gentle rebuke and occasional eulogy of the one may be fascinating, but the constant tauntings of the other must be accommodated.
Politicians are born not made; and anyone who has not the stomach for the railings of the masses and is only interested in their occasional hosannas, has no right to enter into public life." (nigerianmuse)
Most Nigerians agree with the fact that 'good leadership' is the main obstacle or the bain to our development. In addition, some believe that it doesn't really matter what part of the country a leader comes from, as far as he is able to deliver. Definitely, all things being equal, this should be the norm in any progressive and democratic society. However, with all due respect to those who hold this view, nevertheless, I beg to disagree with this opinion. In this article, using a system analysis approach, I'll try to show or proove that the probability of a leader succeding, at least as far as the Nigeria context is concerned has a lot to do with his origin. Using econometrics, we will try to find a correlation between good leadership and the origin of a leader, President to be more precise.
In particular, we will try to examine the correlation between good decision making, leadership, the north, military and development, based on statistical analysis.
For the lay man. In simple terms, econometrics deals with the application of statistical methods to economics. Unlike economic statistics, which is mainly statistical data, econometrics is distinguished by the unification of economic theory, mathematical tools, and statistical methodology. More broaddly, it is concerned with:
(1) estimating economic relationship;
(2) confronting economic theory with facts and testing hypotheses involving economic behaviour;
(3) forecasting the behaviour of economic variables.
What is leadership in the first place? Leadeship has its roots from the verb "to lead." But in order to lead successfully , a leader must not only "take decision" as regards to his "destination" i.e. where he wants to lead his followers, he must as well have a "road map" detailing how to get to the destination, and the team that will accompany him to implement various difficult tasks along the rough journey. In short, a good leader must have vision.
The task of choosing what path to follow - which political, economic, social policies to pursue, and with which team to impliment them, undoubtedly are not easy tasks for a leader. Definitely, a well defined destination plays a significant role in the success of a leader.
Good leadership is about not just making decisions but the right decisions, at least most of the time. Decision can either be good, very good, excellent, bad, very bad or catastrophic. Even, the decision to take or not take a decision on an issue is itself a decision, and definitely has its consequence.
The quality of the decision a leader makes depends on a lot of factors: level of education, special training, professional experience, moral values, level of patriotism, general background e.t.c. No wonder, in the corporate world, top managers are highly sorted after and handsomely rewarded. It is believed that with their financial, management, marketing and production experience acquired either from an M.B.A. progamme, years spent studying in the universities and years of professional experience, all things being equal, they are best equipped to make and impliment the right commercial decisions in the interest of their companies. Obviously, these right commercial decisions reflect in the financial statements or reports as profits.
In a situation whereby a leader takes a wrong decision, the consequence could be grave. The consequence of a wrong decision is like financial mathematics, compound interest to be precise, or geometric progression. One bad decision compounds, progresses or leads to 3 problems. 3 wrong decisions leads to 27 problems e.t.c.
What political path and/or level of democracy a country should allow, calibre of ministers in the cabinet, how and on which projects the country's budget should be spent, level of government intervention in the economy, monetary policy, stand on corruption, e.t.c. are critical decisions that a leader/president must take during his term in office. The negative effects of bad decision is like a chain reaction. In the corporate world, the consequence is the inevitable death of a company, or to put it simply, the company goes bankrupt.
As far as the economy is concerned too, there are no miracles. As you lay your bed so you lie on it. Wrong decisions lead to galloping inflation, mass unemployment, mass immigration, high rate of crime, corruption, poor educational system, regular plane crashes, inadequate health and pension systems, coup-detats, large mortal rates from diseases, unstable power supply, delapidated roads, non-functioning public transportation system, non-existence of functioning public water supply system; the list is endless.
THE NORTH AND MILITARY FACTOR IN NIGERIAN POLITICS.
According to statistics, Nigeria, since independence has been ruled "virtually" by the north and the military. Emphassy is placed here on virtually, because the author strongly believes that OBJ is a continuation of the rule of the north - since he was never the Yorubas' candidate. It is a well known secret that OBJ was sponsored by the north. To show the extent of the unpopularity of his candidacy among The Yorubas, he lost the 1999 election even in his local government and state respectively. Although, OBJ is a Yoruba man, he was not The Yorubas' candidate. Therefore, it could be rightly argued that The Yorubas' chance to provide quality leadership has not only be wasted but they have been robbed the opportunity to provide quality leadership, that definitely would have taken the country out of the dooldrums it is presently in at the end of his 8 year visionless 'reign.' If there was a gentleman agreement as is being claimed, then why did Buhari contest against OBJ in 2003? Would we have been talking about "gentleman's agreement" now if Buhari had won the 2003 presidential election?
EXPERIMENT
We need some vital data for our analysis. I want to implore the readers to carry out a little experiment with me. For the validity and objectivity of our analysis, this experiment must be carried out before reading on. Please get a sheet of paper. Write down 20 names 'each' of renowned and accomplished Nigerians in the following fields or professions: Musicians, actors, actresses, footballers (men), footballers (women), sports men (apart from football), sports women,lawyers (SAN), writers, bankers/economists/top managers, professors and educators. Now write down 20 names of Nigerian retired miitary officers and politicians.
I can bet with you that apart from the retired military officers and politicians' list, at least 90% or 19 names/people on your lists in other categories are southerners. What conclusion can we draw from this? The conclusion is that the core of the intellectual or human capital of the country is concentrated in the south. The Nigerians on your lists, through their professional activities are the ones that make us to be proud to be Nigerians and promote the country on the international arena. The Soyinkas, Achebes, Olajuwons, Emeagwalis, Fawehinmis, Kanus, Okochas, Utomis, nollywood stars, the nigerian musicians e.t.c. In economic terms, these are the wealth creators.
QUOTA SYSTEM IN ACTION.
Another conclusion we can also draw is that northerners are not competitive with southerners in all fields of human endeavour where there is 'free competition' except in the military and politics, which the north has intentionally hijacked by purposely limiting the number of southerners that can enroll, and has stolen so much money in order to be active and relevant in Nigerian politics. That explains the significant presence of retired northern military officers and their northern civilian counterpats in the list of politicians.
It is also worth mentioning that a large number of the so called northern graduates and professionals are products of quota system i.e. they did not go through the normal procedure entailing fierce and free competition to secure admission, places were automatically reseved for them. These northern graduates later are appointed as ministers, advisers, ambassadors, diplomats, permanent secretaries, chief executive officers of our public companies e.t.c., also on quota system and using the priviledge that their kingsmen were in power.
Based on this analysis, I wrote in my previous article titled "A battle cry to reverse the poor state of the nation" that "For every northerner occupying a federal post, there are at least 100 southerners that are much better qualified but been denied the opportunity." Millions of southerners are victims of quota system, a system that unfortunately still operates at all levels even at the time of writing.
In the same article, I also wrote about my shock discovery on getting to Russia to study. After our interaction with Bureau for External Aids scholarship students from the north, what we realised to our greatest surprise and disappointment was that our northern colleagues had inferior WAEC, GCE results compared to ours. I remembered some of my colleagues who had distinctions but were denied scholarship because equal number of students had to be chosen from each state. There were even several occasions when northern scholarship students sent to study Medicine in Russia had never studied biology or/and chemistry before! It was then that I understood not only the real meaning, damage and danger of quota system, but I as well realised the injustice in our system and the heavy price the south is paying to accomodate or co-exist with the north.
By the way, talking about quota system, I wonder why we don't use quota system in sports, for example. Imagine using quota system to choose our footballers or the olympic team that won gold in Atlanta in 1994. Imagine choosing 3 northerners with finishing time of more than 20 seconds for our 4X100m relay team in the olympics. What are our chances of winning? Zero, you will definitely say. It sounds absurd ofcourse to choose athletics with finishing time of more than 20 seconds to represent the country. It is obvious that in order for our country to excel at international competitions, we need to choose the best of the best among us to represent us.
But, has it ever occured to you that in actual fact, for the past 46 years, that is exactly what we have been doing. All along, we are being ruled by people, who at best ought to have been 'night guards' or 'megidas' in our houses, but were fortunate to enroll in the army, and grossely abused the previledege and trust bestowed on them by the nation, by carrying out one coup after the other. The northern directors, advisers, ambassadors, journalists, diplomats, civil servants, specialists e.t.c. of our public institutions and companies were mainly based on polititics or quota system, and not on merits or qualification. There are numerous examples, most especially during the reign of northern head of states. That explains the total breakdown of our public companies.
On the global scale, it is the same picture. Irrespective of our desire, Nigeria as a country is always in global competition. To be competitive globally, a country must keep on developing or moving in the right direction, otherwise, it is taken over by other countries economically, and eventually becomes irrelevant in world politics and economy. We compete with other countries in the world not only for a share of Direct Foreign Investment (DFI) in our economy, but for the increase in the export of non-oil products to other countries as well. Definitely, choosing an economic team, ministerial positions or the president based on state of origin, region or quota system, and not on merits weakens the quality of decisions that are taken, and consequently undermines our competitiveness in the global economy.
Why is it that northerners politicians, both retired military officers and their civilian counterparts are active and competitive only in politics? First, because you need a lot of money to go into politics in order to be relevant in Nigeria, and the notherners and the military have more money at their disposal acquired through outright embezzlement during their rule. Secondly, since the north is not competitive with the south in all other aspects of human endeavours, subsequently, they have no other means of survival apart from politics, otherwise, the north would have given the country first class lawyers, footballers, writers, sprinters, boxers, scholars, managers, bankers, actors, actresses, artists, musicians, engineers, basketball players, e.t.c.
THE JELANI FACTOR AND IMPACT OF NORTHERNERS TO NATION BUILDING.
Definitely, this article will not be complete without commenting on Jelani Aliyu's technological breakthrough at General Motors. While we shower, undoubtedly a well deserved encomiums on this Nigerian genius for designing the electric car, Chevvy Volt, nevertheless, I want to point out 2 very important things.
(1) In statistics, when we are interested in finding the mean from a range or set of data, and a number or figure in the range is much bigger or smaller than most numbers in the set of numbers, we refer to such number(s) as 'outlanders' and are usually ignored in the calculation. In essence, what this means is that such cases of Jelani, a northerner, performing such a feat, based on statistics are very very limited. In otherwords, what one is trying to assert is that there are hundreds of southerners, living inside or outside the country that have performed such feats in different fields of human endeavours. Such a performance from Jelani, a northernern is not the norm and comes once in a blue moon after similar performances from 1000 southerners. This assertion, thus, is not meant to belittle Jelani's achievement.
What do you make of Bamidele Oyekanmi's (ph.D) invention of automobitive part, for which the Nigerian currently with Ford Motors Company, with a view of possibly manufacturing the particular automotive part in Nigeria, thereby offering employment opportunities to Nigerians in Nigeria. What about Olukayode Oluwole, a Nigerian mechanical engineer based in the United States, who made a keyboard capable of typing tonal marks and ascents of over 400 Nigerian languages.
Brino Gilbert, another Nigerian won two medals and a trophy at the May 2003 Invention and New Product Exposition (INPEX) in the U.S. Gilbert also has to his collection a bronze medal in the aerospace/aeronautics category and a manufacturing silver medal. Gilbert met solitude in America after 10 years of plying through the wilderness, soliciting for assistance. Ezekiel Izogu is credited to have designed Nigeria's first car, Z-600. And what do you make of 12 years old, JSS 3 Nigerian boy, Nyemahame Allwell Worgu, who is acclaimed to be the youngest person in the world in mastering the Sun's Java program?
You probably must have heard Of the Nigerian indigenous genius software development company called 'Zinox technologies.' Zinox technologies, headed by chief Leo Stan Ekeh produces software that rank among the best in the world for a much less price compared to what their western counterparts charge for the same software. The list is endless. The writer will like to use this forum to implore our journalists to write more on this particular issue.
Ofcourse, one is not saying that there are no northern engineers, doctors, lawyers e.t.c. The question is "how many graduates do the north have, compared to the south." What percentage got admission to Nigerian and foreign universities through fair compatition, and not quota system? And finally, how many of them are really competitive compared to their southern counterparts? In otherwords, if you are to choose at random a northern and southern specialist/graduate, all things being equal, what is the probability that the former is better than the latter. Based on this analysis, another assetion that the contribution of the north to the economy of Nigeria is less than 10% was made in my previous article.
>
>
> THE NDIGBO CIVIL WAR INVENTIONS AND TECHNOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGHS.
>
> (2) One will also like to remind Nigerians that more complex technological achievements or breakthroughs had been recorded by The Ndigbos during the civil war. In the opinion of the writer, those young Igbo boys, some without formal university education, without access to the most sophisticated computer systems, without a scholarship from the Sokoto state government - got from the oil money - to study at College for Creative Studies, (C.S.S) in the United States, and without the most conducive pscychological enviroment, all of which were at the disposal of Jelani Aliyu, nevertheless, were able to refine oil locally and manufacture ammunitions, including rockets. The technological breakthroughs of the Biafran scientists were so much effective during the war to the extent that the federal government wrongfully accused some countries of arming the Biafran soldiers. The federal govenment did not have the slightest knowledge that in actual fact, it was the brain and talent of Biafran scientists that were in display!
During a conversation with an ibo friend, Emeka (real name withheld), in a restaurant, sometime in December last year, about Nigerian politics in general and the launching of the autobiography of the present Nigerian ambassador to Moscow, Air commodor (rtd) Dan Suleiman. Emeka told me that as a primary school pupil, studying in the east, he was fond of drawing, and used to draw the pictures or portraits of the federal government military officers, including that of Dan Suleiman, which he pasted or hanged on the walls in the classroom. Emeka, furthermore told me that despite the fact that the civil war ended more than 35 years ago, nevertheless, the memory is still very fresh in mind, as if it was yesterday. Infact, he said that he remembered Dan Suleiman very well, and could still recall how he looked like then.
According to Emeka, Dan Suleiman was a notorious pilot who was dreaded in the east for his air raids and bombings of biafran soldiers. However, the most shocking and saddest story that Emeka told me was that, after the end of the civil war - when defacto the war was over, but an official statement was yet to be made to the effect, the northern military officers hunted for biafran scientists, rounded up the ones they could lay their hands on and executed them.
Now, let us assume that the northern military officers, instead of purposely murdering the biafran scientists in cold blood (I define the act that as murder since the killings were carried out after cease fire was announced, and an official announcement to the end of the war completely was definitely forthcoming) had gathered them all together, invested in them, provided them with all the technical, financial, technological, logistical and pscychological support needed. What do you think the result would had been today? I am convinced, and I am sure most of you will agree with me that the result would had been that many of the biafran scientists and technicians would not only had formed Nigerian equivalent of Daewoo, Samsung, Sony, Sharp, Toyota, Hyundai, Honda, Datsun, Kawasaki e.t.c. but, Nigeria by now, would had been competiting with the U.S. and Russia in space exploiration! Can you imagine the impact these companies could had had on the labour market and the economy in general?
Sometime ago, while watching one of MC Weird musical video clips that ended with the erection of Nigerian flag in space, I thought to myself that this was actually possible or could had been a reality by now, if the northern officers had spared the lives of the biafran scientists, challenged them to reach for the highest in terms of technological feats.
Can you imagine how many potential Phillip Emeagwalis the northern military officers deliberately murdered after the war. Emeagwali is globally regarded as 'the father of the internet,' an assertion that was confirmed by the former U.S. president, Bill Clinton, during his last visit to Nigeria, in the capacity of the U.S. president. Bill Clinton said this about Emeagwali: "One of the great minds of the Information Age is a Nigerian American named Philip Emeagwali. He had to leave school because his parents
couldn't pay the fees. He lived in a refugee camp during your civil war. He won a scholarship to university and went on to invent a formula that lets computers make 3.1 billion calculations per second. Some people call him the Bill Gates of Africa..."
Emeagwali later went on to win the coveated and very prestigious Goldon Prize in Computing in 1989, equivalent to the Nobel Prize in Computing.
For those who have not heard of Phillip Emeagwali before, I implore them to log to his site at www.emeagwali.com in order to read more about this Nigerian genius, most especially how he miraculously survived the civil war, and made it to the U.S.
Now let us imagine that Emeagwali did not make it to the States, but was killed during the civil war. Try to imagine the number of potential Emeagwalis, Okochas, Kanus, Achebes, Soludos, Utomis e.t.c. that were coldly murdered by the northern military machine, seeking for 'revenge' at all cost. Imagine what they could had done for Nigeria. Isn't it painful that the U.S. is the major economic benefactor from Emeagwalis ingeniusness?
During my trip to Kiev- the capital of Ukraine, more than 10 years ago, a Nigerian friend studying aeronautical engineering told me that his professor had a copy of Prof. Awojobi's ph.D thesis in his personal library. What do you make of that? If a Soviet Professor had a copy of Awojobi's ph.D thesis that was defended in Germany in his library, undoubtedly that means that what he wrote was very important and was worth the attention of leading scientists, moreso, when one takes into consideration the fact that as far as aeronautical engineering is concerned, and science in general, Russia is a superpower. For those who might not know who Awojobi was, one will like to remind them that Awojobi designed the right hand drive for Mercedez in the 70's. We all still remember how Awojobi, instead of devoting all his time and attention to his profession, was compelled to fight the northern led government for violation of basic human rights and installation of democracy; a major prerequisite for the development of any society. He later met his untimely death in a very mysterious way out of stress and frustration. Finally, it is also an open secret that quiet a number of Nigerian scientists work for National Aeronautical and Space Agency (NASA).
Now, let us imagine that the north led federal government put the likes of Awojobi and Emeagwali under one roof, gave them all the necessary support. Can you imagine where we would had been by now? Imagine when Gowon said that Nigeria's problem was not money, but how or where to spend it, but instead had the foresight to invest the oil money in science and technology. Please do not forget that the topic is leadership and decision making. Today, we are paying a big price for wrong decisions that were taken, or will it be right to say, that were not taken.
We live in the age of science and technology, most especially information technology. No society can develop without industrialisation and huge investments in science and technology. Small european countries like Sweden, Finland, Norway e.t.c. have the highest standard of living today thanks to selling of their science and technology products to the whole world. Japan is another example of a country, densely populated, and without any mineral resources, nevertheless was able to build the second biggest economy in the world thans to science and technology.
If past northern leaders had invested in science and technology, instead of issuing import licenses to their northern brothers to import almost everything into the country, by now, we would have been reaping the dividends of good decision or foresight.
Imagine the number of Nigerian scientists and professionals that have migrated to the west out of frustration. The role of science and technology in development is either not appreciated or undervalued by northern led presidents/head of states, otherwise, they would not be closing down universities, paying lecturers peanuts, withholding salaries of lecturers for months and denying Nigerian scientists and doctors access to modern equipments for research and treatment.
THERE ARE STILL MANY EMEAGWALIS WAITING TO BE DISCOVERED.
During his address, Bill Clinton, said further: " But what I want to say to you is there is another Philip Emeagwali , or hundreds of them, or thousands of them growing up in Nigeria today. I thought about it when I was driving in from the airport and then driving around to my appointments, looking into the face of children. You never know what potential is in their mind and in their heart; what imagination they have; what they have already thought of and dreamed of that may be locked in because they don't have the means to take it out. That's really what education is. It's our responsibility to make sure all your children have the chance to live their dreams so that you don't miss the benefit of their contributions and
neither does the rest of the world."
Undoubtedly, many potential Emeagwali are still abound. The Aba boys that can manufacture practically any spare part of any car locally are one example. However, it is very unfortunate that the Federal Government of Nigeria presenly being led by another retired military officer is not ready to yield to the advise of Bill Clinton. I found it very difficult to hold the tears rolling down my cheeks when I read in the news that OBJ promised Ethiopia 600 Nigerian professors to teach at its various universities! That act, undoubtedly is a proof that 'our leaders' have practically no regard for education or knowledgeable people. Can you imagine the number of years, money and hard work needed to become a professor? And OBJ is very eager to dash Ethiopia 600 Nigerian professors just like that! Can you imagine the negative impact of removing 600 Nigerian professors from our higher institutions? May I ask Aremu omo Obasanjo, with whom is he planning to replace those 600 professors after their departure for Ethiopia? Perhaps with the hens and fowls in his farm.
Definitely, if our highly qualified doctors and nurses had modern equipments to work with, and were well paid, they would not be migrating en mass to Saudi Arabia, United States and other countries to work. They would had stayed behind to save the lives of Nigerians, many of whom had met their untimely deaths due to lack of adequate medical service. One ought not to have being surprised, afterall, the Otta farmer himself is a semi-illiterate, who does not have a degree from any higher institution. OBJ, undoubtedly is an opportunist, who under normal circumstances or democratic setting, should not have even dreamt of becoming the chairman of his local government, talkless of becoming the president of a great country like Nigeria.
TO BE CONTINUED.
|
# 
Your Comments
Please make The Square an enjoyable experience for everyone by refraining from gratuitous ad-hominem contributions, defamatory comments and off-topic posting. Such posts will be removed.