18 Sep 2008 |
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ROUND THE WORLD IN 80 DAYS. THE NIGER DELTA PEACE JAMBOREE: FROM GAMBARI SUMMIT TO SPECIAL MINISTRY FOR THE NIGER DELTA. The issue of the new special ministry of Niger Delta just created by Yar'Adua is so important that no amount of space and time devoted to its analysis could be too much. As a matter of fact Asari Dokubo, one of the leaders of the militant groups, has made it clear on several occasions that the ONLY ACCEPTABLE solution to the Niger Delta crisis is the convocation of a S.N.C. where every ethnic group will renegotiate its continued membership in Nigeria, the evil creation of the British. However, instead of heeding to this reasonable and fair call, which would have provided a quick and peaceful solution to the deadlock in the region, Yar'Adua and the north have decided to ignore it and went ahead on a lonely but fruitless journey by unilaterally announcing the formation of a special ministry for the Niger Delta. Within 3 months, about 4 proposals have been considered; and killed before they could even take off. Niger delta Summit, discussions, war threat, 40 man committee and now a new and special ministry of Niger Delta have been put forward as solutions to the crisis in the N.D. just within 80 days! What does this unilateral decision as regards to a special ministry of N.D. tells us about Yar'Adua? First, it tells us that in actual fact Yar'Adua does not have any concrete plan as regards to resolving the Niger Delta crisis right from the onset. The fact that Yar'Adua jumps from one plan to the other without even giving any one of them a real trial, goes a long way to prove beyond any reasonable doubts that this man from Katsina, who entered Aso Rock through the back-door, NEVER had any real ‘Road map’ as far as resolving the Niger Delta crisis is concerned. The bitter truth is that Yar'Adua, a.k.a. ‘Mr. Go Slow’ is a COMPLETELY confused man. Obviously, the decision about a special ministry was made out of desperation to cool tension in the region. Yar'Adua led Federal government just needed to tell the militants anything so that they could lay down their arms and come out of the creeks hands up in the air. It was not a desire born out of a deep conviction to correct more than 50 years of oppression, suppression, humiliation, economic deprivation that the people and the region were subjected to by the north. It was more of a time buying and Public relations exercise on the part of Yar'Adua was made out Secondly, as has already been mentioned in part 6 of this series, chronicles of political events in Nigeria, have proved over and over that THE NORTH AND YAR'ADUA CAN NOT BE TRUSTED under any circumstances! For example, how can one trust a man who again lied to 140 million Nigerians; who are yet to forgive him and recover from the shock and psychological trauma of the farce that was called election in which he emerged as the president, that he was going on lesser hajj in Saudi Arabia, when in actual fact, the primary purpose of his visit was to undergo a kidney transplant? We should not also forget that during the presidential campaign and immediately on attaining power, he told the whole nation that the reason for his endless trips to Germany was to treat catarrh. Yar'Adua never for once admitted that he is suffering from chronic kidney problem. He only admitted to this fact after the secret behind his medical jamboree abroad was leaked to the nation by Nigeria’s foremost investigative journalists. How could we trust a man who would rather entrust his body, life and details of his health to foreign doctors instead of Nigerian doctors? How can we trust a man, who talks about the rule of law all the time, but constantly violates it himself and has done very little or practically nothing to uphold it? Thirdly, the timing and speed at which the special ministry was announced ought to make one to be suspicious. The plan to form a special Ministry of N.D. was revealed or reconfirmed after the return of Yar'Adua from a 2 week medical holiday in Germany and Saudi Arabia. It’s obvious that while in Germany and Saudi Arabia, he must had met with the British and Americans who pressed him to go ahead with the idea of a special ministry for Niger Delta. Otherwise, how does one explain the fact that it took almost one and a half years for Yar'Adua to arrive at the conclusion that a special Ministry is the best solution to the Niger Delta crisis? A recently released report by a reliable Nigerian news media about the special Ministry revealed that Yar'Adua was not just consulting with the British and Americans, but in actual fact are the architects behind the whole idea. Names of potential Nigerians that could head the ministry have already been submitted to the British and Americans for screening. Ibori is rumored to stand the best chance of heading the new ministry. Never mind the fact that he was arrested and later ‘quickly’ released again by the EFCC after threatening to ‘lay it all bear and name names of his accomplices in high places. What an excellent method of getting the EFCC to be off one’s back. And, never mind the fact that Ibori has been detained and questioned on several occasions by the British government for money laundering. What other evidence do you need in order to believe that Nigeria is STILL A BANANA REPUBLIC AND A COLONY of the British put in the custody of the descendants of Usman Dan Fodio? Try to imagine a situation in which the British sends a list containing the names of potential candidates to head one of its ministries to another country for screening and confirmation. Furthermore, the unilateral announcement of a special ministry for the N.D. without any inputs or consultation with the militants, go a long way to show that Yar'Adua and the north have very little regards for the Niger Deltans, a region that the north in actual fact owes its COMPLETE existence to. By ignoring the militants, Yar'Adua and the north has once again not only demonstrated their arrogance, but are as well trying to deny their existence and continue portraying them as jobless bandits and terrorists, who are not fighting for a just cause, but are only out to enrich themselves through bunkering and kidnapping of innocent Nigerians and foreigners for ransom.
ECONOMIC IMPLICATION OF THE PROPOSED SPECIAL MINISTRY FOR NIGER DELTA. We have just carried out a general analysis of the new special Ministry of N.G. being produced by the northern led government of Yar'Adua, we will now try to carry out an economic analysis or to be more precise, economic implication of a ministry of Niger Delta. From the economic point of view, what does a ministry of Niger Delta mean? It means that the north will be giving the Niger Deltans just a ‘minute fraction’, of their own money, say 0.05% (please note that it is not 5%, but 0.05%) at best. But, out of this 0,05%, about a fifth of it, at most, will in actual fact get to the indigenes simply because the remaining would be embezzled by corrupt politicians through inflated contracts. It will definitely be an additional and guaranteed avenue for politicians to enrich themselves. And, needless to say that most of the contracts that would be awarded and actually implemented would not only be inflated but carried out mainly by foreign companies. Thus, by accepting a special ministry as a solution to the Niger Delta crisis, the indigenes will be giving out 99.95% of their oil and gas revenues for free all in the name of building One Nigeria that they were roped into by the British. In order to get a better understanding of the economic implication of the new ministry of N.D. that Yar'Adua, the British and Americans are proposing to the Niger Deltans, a concrete example needs to be given. Imagine that your backyard contains Bitumen that can give you $20 billion every year. A stranger comes up to you and says ‘Mr. S, you know what? I will take complete control of this Bitumen in your backyard, but you don’t need to worry about how to sustain yourself because I will set aside 0.05% of $20 billion every year for your upkeep. However, this money (0.05% of $20 billion) will not even be handed over to you in cash to spend as you wish because I am afraid that you might spend it any how. Therefore, it will be in my custody. I will set up a special ministry which will be run mainly by my people and some of your people ‘that are loyal to me. They will determine your needs themselves without consulting you and pay for them from this money that I have set aside. But, God forbids Mr. S, if you don’t agree with this ‘perfect arrangement,’ I will wipe you and the whole of your family from the face of the earth. And by the way, I’ll like to remind you that your territory is surrounded by my thugs waiting for an order from me.” If we are to call a spade a spade, and not just a working tool, then, obviously, this special ministry is nothing but continued ‘legalized robbery and internal colonialism.’ NO MORE, NO LESS!
POLITICAL IMPLICATION OF A SPECIAL MINISTRY OF NIGER DELTA. The political implication of the new ministry is that dejure, it will be on paper that the Niger Delta now has a special ministry set up by the good Samaritan Alhaji Yar'Adua, but defacto, the Niger Deltans will have practically no control over how it is run. The new ministry will be like any other ineffective ministry that is being run by incompetent, corrupt, visionless and morally bankrupt ministers. Most importantly, Yar'Adua will go down in history as the first and only Nigerian president with the courage and wisdom to resolve the Niger Delta crisis at last. Praises and commendations in superlative forms are already been sent to Yar'Adua notwithstanding the fact that the ministry is even yet to be set up officially, talk-less of it completing a single project. With the signing of the new ministry into law, the crisis in the region will be formally declared solved and closed FOREVER – never to be returned to again. And Yar'Adua and the north will at last get the mandate to refer to the militants as terrorists, bandits, robbers, kidnappers who are only destabilizing the region and disturbing him from turning the Niger Delta into the ‘garden of Eden’ like Abuja. He will have the carte-blanch to restore peace and order to the region by any means. Thus, a man hunt and massacre of the militants in the creeks with his Hausa/Fulani soldiers will take off swiftly. {mospagebreak} BEFORE YOU ROLL OUT THE DRUMS, PLEASE RATE NIGERIA'S MINISTRIES IN EXISTENCE FOR ALMOST 50 YEARS. Furthermore, those who are optimistic about a special ministry for Niger Delta need to be told that it’s too early to start jubilating. They need to be quickly reminded that ‘it is one thing to announce the formation of a special ministry, but it is another thing entirely to make it function properly.’ As we are all aware, Nigeria, since independence, has had a number of ministries including the ministries of power, water, transportation, industries, agriculture, health, industries, internal affairs, petroleum, education to mention but just a few. What are the achievements of all these ministries for the past 50 years? How many homes has the ministry of power, for almost 50 years of its existence, been able to provide uninterrupted electricity to? Since almost 50 years of its existence, what percentage of Nigerian homes has the ministry of water been able to make pipe-born water available? How has the work of ministry of transportation reflected on our transportation networks: roads, rail transportation, water transportation, aviation? How many national airlines does Nigeria have today? How many planes can Nigeria boast of today? It’s a known fact that Nigeria’s dilapidated roads are death traps which have sent uncountable number of Nigerians to their early graves. Likewise, up till today, Nigeria still holds the world record in the number of deaths through plane crashes. Recently, it was reported that most of the equipments used at Nigerian airports are outdated. Where was the ministry of aviation/transportation when these equipments were being installed? How has the ministry of Agriculture made Nigeria to be self-sufficient since almost 50 years of its existence? It’s a known fact that Nigerians feed mainly on imported foods. How many houses has the ministry of works and housing built for Nigerians within almost 50 years of its existence? Within almost 50 years of its existence, what percentage of Nigeria’s indigenous products or goods has the ministry of Industries helped Nigerian industries to produce for Nigerians and for export, compared to those that are imported into the country? How is the level of health care system in Nigeria today since almost 50 years of its existence? Has the ministry of health made access to quality health care services affordable to most Nigerians since its existence for almost 50 years? Why are Nigerian doctors, nurses and other medical personnel trooping to western, Arabic and even African countries like South Africa if they are contented in Nigeria? Are Nigerian hospitals well equipped with state of the arts medical equipments? Why is the average life expectancy in Nigeria a shocking 42.2 years, one of the lowest in the world, despite the fact that the ministry of health has been in existence for almost 50 year? It’s an open secret that Nigerian Teaching Universities are mere consulting centers. Northern Nigeria has the highest number of polo cases in the world and Nigeria has one of the highest cases of mothers that loose their lives during delivery. How did the ministry of health allow things to degenerate to such level? How has the ministry of internal affairs been able to protect the lives and properties of Nigerians since almost 50 years of its existence? Why is it that despite the existence of the ministry of internal affairs for almost 50 years, nevertheless, uncountable number of Nigerians were left to face their agony alone in the hands of armed robbers? Why does the Nigerian Police hardly come to the aids of Nigerians, but instead prefer to brutalize them? How has the ministry of Justice ensure that an average Nigerian, irrespective of his income, could count on the judicial system to be fair to him or her? Many Nigerians were What impact has the ministry of education made on Nigerian education since almost 50 years of its inception? Why are lecturers forcing students to buy their handouts in order to pass exams? Why are Nigerian lectures trooping to other countries including African countries that are even poorer than Nigeria to teach? How has successful is the ministry of education in resolving the issue of adequate funding of education at all levels within almost 50 years of its existence? Since almost 50 years of its existence, what positive impact has the ministry of Petroleum had on the lives and economy of Nigerians and Nigeria respectively as regards to availability of petrol and at an affordable price? It’s a known fact that practically all the refineries in Nigeria are grounded and that prices of petroleum in Nigeria is one of the highest in the world despite the fact that it has the 6th largest reserve of crude oil in the world. Nigeria, a country with 140 million people, rely completely on multinational oil companies to drill its oil despite the fact that Iran, with a population of 70 million; 2 times less than that of Nigeria, and Venezuela, with a population of 20 million, 7 times less than that of Nigeria, have long kicked out all multinational oil companies from their respective countries and are drilling their oil now by themselves? What has the Ministry of Petroleum been doing for almost 50 years? Undoubtedly, we can continue the assessment of all of the ministries that Nigeria has ever had in the past 50 years, unfortunately, the result is the same. THERE IS JUST NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT PRACTICALLY ABOUT ALL OF NIGERIA’S MINISTRIES THAT HAVE BEEN IN EXISTENCE FOR ALMOST 50 YEARS. THEY HAVE ALL FAILED WOEFULLY!
THE ONE BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION. Now, here comes the one billion dollar question ‘if the above objective analyses that we have just carried out reveal that all the ministries that Nigeria has ever had in the last 50 years have failed woefully, what makes us think that the new special ministry of Niger Delta, which is supposed to combine and perform simultaneously all the roles and functions of all other ministries: transportation, health, works, housing, education, aviation, power, agriculture, industries, mining, petroleum, youth development, e.t.c., in other words ‘ALL MINISTRIES IN ONE, will be able to perform up to expectation? What makes us think that the special Niger delta ministry will not share the same fate with other failed Nigerian ministries? What will be so special about this ministry that it can not fail? Certainly, one does not need to be a sooth-sayer to predict that the new special ministry is doomed to fail! Furthermore, as has already been mentioned, if after 8 years as the governor of Katsina state and 16 months as the imposed president of Nigeria, Yar'Adua is not even capable of establishing a state of the arts medical centre manned by the best of the best of Nigerian doctors, nurses and medical personnel to treat his ailment, but instead prefers to shuttle to Germany, what makes us think that he will be able to monitor the new ministry and ensure that it delivers as promised? And by the way, what is the difference between a new Niger Delta ministry and the previously established Niger Delta Development Fund (N.D.D.F)? What is preventing the northern led federal government for almost 50 years, or since the creation of N.D.D.F., from implementing the same projects – that could have brought development to the region and people - now entrusted upon the new ministry? Are we to understand that the government has abandoned N.D.D.F. because it believes that it has failed? And if so, what makes the northern led Federal government think that this new ministry will be different from N.D.D.F.? Is there any basis for such optimism? And, is the new ministry NOT going to be managed by the same old, corrupt, incompetent, visionless and morally bankrupt civilians and retired criminal officers? Or, is Yar'Adua planning to employ Marsians to run this new ministry? Suffice to as well say that this unilateral announcement of a special ministry as well lends strong support to the assertion that the relationship between north and the South in general is not a partnership relationship, but a colonial and/or Master-Slave relationship. In an equal partnership relationship, where there is trust and mutual understanding, partners consult one another before taking vital decisions. A partner does not take a unilateral and vital decision that will have a serious impact on his partner(s) without discussing the details with him/them. In an equal and trustworthy relationship, partners solicit for inputs from one another in order to resolve serious crises. Unfortunately, as far as the Niger delta is concerned, since Yar'Adua and the north do not regard them as equal partners, therefore they do not think it is necessary to discuss or consult with them about how to overcome the impasse in their region. Therefore, even if there is no any cogent or genuine reason to reject the idea of a special ministry – although, in actual fact, we have given more than enough - the mere fact that Yar'Adua and the north took a unilateral decision on the Niger Delta without involving the major stake-holders: the indigenes and the militants, is definitely more than enough reason why the militants, as a matter of principle and honour MUST reject this new proposal from Yar'Adua – no matter how well intentioned it may be. Without any exaggeration, this act on the part of Yar'Adua and the north is big insult and a ‘dirty slap’ on the face of the militants and the indigenes. These northerners need not only to be forced to eat the humble pie, but need as well to be told that they are nothing but a bunch of ungrateful parasites! What makes Yar'Adua think that he is the Almighty God who is bestowed the sole right to unilaterally decide how the Niger Deltans, who have nothing absolutely in common with the descendants of Usman Dan Fodio, must spend their resources? What legitimate right does Yar'Adua have to decide unilaterally how the Niger Delta crisis must be resolved? WHO THE HELL IS SHEHU YAR'ADUA? In case we have a short memory, then, we need to be reminded that Yar'Adua himself was imposed on Nigerians through a fraudulent election, the worst ever conducted in the history of the country. Thus, Yar'Adua himself is nothing but a thief in possession of a stolen mandate. According to Femi Falana (S.A.N.), one of the worst crimes that could ever be conducted is election rigging. Subsequently, he does not have any moral right whatsoever to present any plan, talkless of a unilateral plan, on how to resolve the Niger Delta crisis. Almost 18 months into his reign, Nigerians are yet to see just a single agenda from his 7 point agenda, which were announced immediately after taking over power, being successfully executed. Instead, so far, all Yar'Adua has succeeded in giving Nigerians are his expensive medical bills paid from the oil in the Niger Delta. What an ingrate! Nigeria They need to be put in their place!
APPLICATION OF GAME THEORY TO DETERMINIG THE BEST RESPONSE OF THE MILITANTS TO A SPECIAL MINISTRY FROM YAR'ADUA. Before tackling this problem, first, we need to be reminded again ‘What is Game Theory?’ Game theory (G.T.) is a theory of conflict and co-operation between rational decision makers. It relies heavily on mathematical models and has proven useful to address problems of conflict and co-operation in economics and management science, as well as other areas of science. In such a game, players are rivals and all players act in their own best interest, paying no attention whatsoever to the fortunes of other players. The players often have conflicting interests and make individual or collective decisions. Non-cooperative games are a very important aspect of Game theory. A non-cooperative game, as we have learnt in part 5 of this series, is a strategic situation in which decision makers cannot make binding agreements to co-operate. In non-cooperative games, the players act independently in pursuit of their own self interest. Without taking the reader through rigorous mathematical equations and formulas, we are going to show and prove here that the best strategy, as has earlier been pointed out in part 5, is for the militants to play a non-cooperative game with the north because only it is capable of giving the militants and the Niger Deltans the ‘Pareto-optimal’ which is the ‘total’ control over their resources and how the revenues that accrue from them are spent. Pareto optimal is about maximizing all your gains in a deal or transaction. The Niger Deltans can attain a Pareto optimal only if they get rid of the parasitic north and become a sovereign country! In that case, they can spend their money as they like and provide all they want for themselves. In order to accomplish this, obviously, they don’t need Yar'Adua’s special ministry. Moreover, Yar'Adua’s proposal of a special ministry, as we have already learnt from our analysis, is far from being the Pareto-optimal! Therefore, the best tactics the militants need to adopt is to tell Yar'Adua to go to hell with his ministry and continue demanding for a national referendum as the first stop to resolving the crisis in the region. What are the advantages of this position? They include the following: 1. First and foremost, it is a legitimate position in the sense that it is written in the United Nations charter that no ethnic group could be forced to co-exist within a country or with other ethnic groups against their will. It’s an undisputed fact that the Ijaws, Itsekiris, Ibiobios, Ogonis, Yorubas, Igbos and other ethnic groups in the Niger Delta are forced to live within Nigeria together with the Hausas and Fulanis. 2. The special ministry still amounts to nothing but legalized robbery and internal colonialism. Yar'Adua’s proposal is a world apart from the Pareto optimal of the militants, or what is even worth giving any serious consideration. 3. By taking such a position, the militants, de-facto are not saying that they are not ready to negotiate, all they are saying is that before any negotiations about special ministry, federalism, e.t.c., they want the respective ethnic groups in the region to first voice their opinion as regards to their desire to remain in Nigeria with the unproductive and parasitic north. After all, this is what the rule of law is all about. Isn’t it? 4. Such a position gives the militants time to plan ahead and strengthen their leverage. 5. This position puts a lot of pressure on Yar'Adua, the North, British and Americans and multinationals because without the consent and/or co-operation of the militants there can be no peace and stability in the Niger Delta, and without it, neither the north, the British, Americans nor multinational oil companies can have unrestricted access to the oil and gas in the region. Consequently, Yar'Adua, the north, British, Americans and the multinational oil companies will have no choice than to meet the demands of the militants or/and engage them in full scale negotiations. 6. The crisis is still at the beginning stage and is yet to reach a critical point, when the economic loss of Nigeria, Britain, America and the multinationals will become ‘unbearable.’ The players are yet to make their best offer. It’s too early to settle for Yar'Adua’s ‘peanuts.’ 7. There is the danger that the ministry after all, will be nothing but an empty promise, just like Yar'Adua’s 7 point agenda, which is no more than an ‘empty slogan’ lacking any serious plan or action. 8. There is the danger that it may be declared unconstitutional and scraped by a new administration that will emerge after Yar'Adua. 9. Since Yar'Adua has already promised a special ministry, and if we are to assume that he will not renege on his promise, at least the militants already have a special ministry in their pocket, therefore by holding on to their position, they have nothing to loose. Such a position increases the probability of getting more concession from Yar'Adua, including achieving their ultimate goal of complete resource control. 10. The militants don’t even have any control over the new ministry. In other to get a better understanding of the reason why the best position for the militants from the tactical point of view is to reject a special Ministry and continue demanding for a referendum, another example needs to be given. Supposing that you have a property or investment that is worth $500 billion, and a stranger comes up to you – let’s call him Mr. Y – and offers to pay you just 0.05% (please note: not 0.5% or 5%, but 0.05%). Is there any economic sense in you going into such a transaction? If we assume that you are in your right senses and rational in your decision making, then, the answer is definitely NO. But, to add salt into injury, apart from the fact that Mr. Y. is offering you just 0.05% of the worth of your property, he does not even have his own money to pay you – in the event that you miraculously and against all odds or expectation agree to the humiliating amount he has offered to pay – so that you can buy whatever you want immediately, without any delay. He intends to first sell your property on your behalf to a third party at a profit, collect the money and later deduct the 0.05% of the cost of your property that he has offered to pay. Undoubtedly, anybody in his right senses will not only reject Mr. Y’s offer flatly, but as well tell him to go to hell! In a normal market setting, if Mr. Y. is really determined to buy your property, it’s obvious that he won’t make you such a ridiculous offer. He has 2 options. Either come up with the $500 billion you asked for or forget about the deal entirely and allow you to go ahead and sell it to another buyer. However, what makes our example more interesting, complicated and unique is that Mr. Y. is not a typical buy. Mr. Y. is a BANDIT who is determined to pay you not more than 0.05% of the worth of your property – and remember, with your own money after he must have sold it – and will NOT allow you neither to keep it to yourself nor sell it to another potential buyer! So, what do you do if you find yourself in such a terrible and unpleasant situation? Under such a scenario, your best response to Mr. Y’s blackmail is to continue shouting NO! NO! NO! on top of your voice until he either comes up with a reasonable offer that reflects the real or market worth of your property or he leaves you alone to sell to another buyer ready to buy your property at the market price. Any other response or decision, apart from the above, will be a fatally wrong one, which you will live to regret in the nearest future! How does the above example relate to the real life situation in the Niger Delta, most especially the special ministry of Niger Delta? In the name of building a fake and non-existing one Nigeria that the Niger Deltans never subscribed to, the descendants of Usman Dan Fodio have taken over the vast mineral resources in the Niger delta, which is worth more than $10 trillion; negotiated and signed all oil and gas exploration contracts with multinational oil companies, without involving the bonafide owners of the resources. After almost 50 years of economic and political deprivation and serious protest from the indigenes, the north, represented by Yar'Adua, now comes up with an idea of a special Ministry which will give back the indigenes 0.05% of their own money, at most. TIME AS A TACTICAL WEAPON AND INSTRUMENT IN CONFLICTOLOGY. In game theory, when a transaction does not just come with a cost or price, but with a very high cost, the role of time is of strategic importance. A shrewd player who is aware of this fact and uses time as a strategic weapon to fight or compete against his enemies, competitors or adversaries will eventually emerge the winner. An analysis of the conflict in the Niger delta shows that time is not only on the side of the militants but the transaction costs of the crisis to the 3 monsters are increasing daily. Each day of the conflict is costing the 3 monsters significant amount of money. Therefore, from the point of view of game theory and transaction cost, the best tactics for the militants to adopt in the conflict is to prolong the conflict in the region as long as possible by turning down all proposals from Yar'Adua and the north except a national referendum which will eventually give them the Pareto optimal needed to take full control over their resources. In addition, the longer the crisis in the Niger delta, the higher the price of oil and gas, the more the losses that multinational oil companies will incur. Therefore, if Yar'Adua refuses to meet the demand of the militants, the cost of the crisis to the 3 monsters will continue to increase, which subsequently put more pressure on them to meet the demands of the militants. Although, it’s as simple as A, B, C, but, it takes an analytical mind to figure this out. As has already been pointed out in part 4 of this series, the British, Americans and other western countries are badly in need of cheap and abundant oil from the Niger delta. But, they can get the amount of oil they need on the condition that there is peace and stability in the region. Likewise, multinational oil companies have invested billions of dollars in the Niger delta. Obviously, they need to recoup their investments – as a matter of fact, they have already recouped their investments 10, 000 times over through lopsided contracts signed with the north on behalf of Nigeria and evasion of taxes running into tens of billions of dollars through the use of different tax schemes including offshore taxation. In any case, in other to recoup their investments, the multinationals need to pump and as well sell as much oil and gas as possible – without any restriction. In order for them to achieve this goal, there is the need for peace and stability in the region. The same applies to Nigeria. Without peace and stability in the region, it can not get the needed revenues to run the country, most especially, the provision infrastructures that the country is badly in need of. In a nutshell, without the co-operation of the militants, it is just impossible for these 3 monsters to achieve their respective goals. What this means in essence is that the ‘Joker is in the hands of the militants and as MEND recently declared “"Peace in the Niger Delta will be determined from the mangrove creeks and not from air-conditioned rooms in Abuja," What a pity for these 3 monsters. The Niger delta crisis is far from reaching a ‘critical stage’ when the losses of the 3 monsters will become ‘glaring and unbearable.’ The multinational still have or have made more than enough profits to cushion their losses in the Niger delta. All the militants need to do now is not to bulge, hold on to their position and wait for this critical moment. Time is on their side and working for them. When that critical moment eventually arrives, the 3 monsters will have just 2 options: either carry out the demands of the militants as regards to a referendum or use full force to remove them. Part 8 will focus completely on what the militants need to do in order to neutralize completely this only advantage that these 3 monsters may seem to have. TO BE CONTINUED ….
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