"If you will not fight for your rights when you can easily win without bloodshed, you will come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you."
Winston Churchill
"The planned Niger-Delta summit by the Federal Government is nothing but a "time-buying syndrome" and diversionary tactics to undermine the yearnings and aspirations of the good people of the region."
Prince Clement Bebenimibo, a conflict management expert. June, 2008.
"The vigour with which the Federal Government has continued to deploy warships as well as military personnel to the troubled Niger Delta is ironic, bearing in mind that while the Federal Government is making an arrangement to organise a summit in the region, it is also preparing for war.He described as regrettable, a situation where a government is taking arms against its people. This act is condemnable. President Umaru Yar'Adua has continued to take instructions from opinion leaders and ignoring the wishes of the oil rich region.Afenifere is worried by the rate at which warships, gunboats and military personnel are being deployed to the Niger Delta region in the last few days. It is quite ironical that while talking of a Niger Delta Summit on the one hand, the Yar'Adua administration is putting up all preparations for war in the Niger Delta and the military spokespersons have refused to use the word war'.Afenifere condemns the attempt to militarise the Niger Delta as it makes no sense for a government to take up arms against its own people.It is quite unfortunate that the President, backed by opinion leaders from a section of the country, continues to see only the criminality' going on in the Niger Delta, ignoring the criminal acts of total neglect of the region that has laid the proverbial golden egg since 1958. At the heart of the present crisis is the increasing agitation for a better deal by the people of the Niger Delta. Afenifere backs their agitation for 50 per cent derivation as a just and fair demand. We also condemn the insensitive comments by the Arewa leader that the leaders of the South-South are wasteful. The wastefulness' of a few leaders imposed most of the time by the same complainants is not a basis to deny the people of their fair demand. That a former governor of Jigawa State allegedly took N17bn from the treasury in one day has not been a basis to say that Jigawa should go and survive on groundnut and stop sharing from the oil money."
Yinka Odumakin, National Publicity Secretary, The pan-Yoruba socio-political organization, Afenifere.
Excerpt of speech, June, 2008.
"The government is not sincere, because if it were, then it would be talking to Okah who is in its custody and proposing this same amnesty to him. The fact though, is that the Niger Delta should be the one offering amnesty to the Nigerian government and not the other way. The soldiers sent there to rape, loot and kill and past leaders who have used our wealth to develop their areas to the detriment of the Niger Delta should be the ones requesting amnesty from us. The recent incident where the Joint Task Force allegedly invaded several fishing communities and razed down mud and thatched houses of impoverished families who have suffered injustice for over 50 years should make any militant have a re-think. These poor communities, more than ever, need armed fighters to balance the equation and protect them. "We have said it before. Gambari is the least qualified in terms of integrity to chair any committee on the Niger Delta. Here is a man who defended the actions of that despot, Sani Abacha and justified the killing of Ken Saro Wiwa to the United Nations. For even considering Gambari without doing a check on the man is an indication of the direction the summit will head, which to our opinion is failure after a jamboree."
Jomo Gbomo, MEND spokesman. excerpt of speech in reaction to Yaradua's offer of amnesty. June 2008.
"The militants' struggle was moral and valid, hence government would not achieve the desired peace through its current carrot-and-stick stance.Okah's trial should stop. The government should give general amnesty to the boys. If you give general amnesty and free Okah, then government will hear a lot that has to be said than what will be said in court. Free Okah and that is the only way we can move forward."
Tam-David-West. Reaction to Yaradua's offer of amnesty to Niger delta militants. June, 2008.
"Nobody should appeal for Gambari and Gambari, himself, should not tell us to give him benefit of doubt because he is still the same Gambari we know, he is not going to change, he is just playing to the gallery, we know these people, they should stop deceiving us. Gambari has said that the summit is for all Nigerians but focused on the Niger-Delta, he is saying that Nigerians will decide at the summit. What do they want to tell us at the summit, is it that when it was groundnut and cocoa, that the money was used to develop the entire country, is that not what they want to tell us at the conference? These people are not willing to give Niger-Delta what we are asking for. Did Clark not lead the people of the South-South to a Constitutional Conference, what happened when the Niger-Delta people told them what our people want? Was it not because they refused to support us that our delegates staged a walk out? So what is Gambari trying to tell us that we don't know about? What truce is he talking about? What he should be talking about is that the Niger-Delta should be completely demilitarized; the soldiers should leave the place, not asking for a 90-day truce. So, what happens after then, he wants a semblance of peace to chair a summit to hang our destiny the way they hung Ken Saro-Wiwa and they think we are fools."
Joseph Evah, Coordinator of the Ijaw Monitoring Group,. Reaction to the appointment of Gambari as the chairman of the Niger delta summit. July, 2008.
"Gambari does not understand the dynamics of the Niger-Delta agitation. That is why he played the evil role he played in the Niger-Delta during the execution of Ken Saro-Wiwa. Ken Saro-Wiwa led one of the most peaceful organizations in the world that was asking for change but Gambari stood up in the United Nations to justify the crushing of the peace crusader. Look, this man does not understand us and the same way, he rationalized away the killing of Saro-Wiwa is the same way he going to negotiate away our destiny in the proposed summit. If he said it was the circumstances of the situation then, we have not seen any thing different from then till now and on his part, he is still the same fox that we know him to be. He is only there to carry out the bid of his masters the way he did in the past. To even worsen matters, the characters in the Steering Committee are people that are far away from home. They are people that are at sea on the issues on ground and if these are the people the Federal Government has put together, then, it has put ill-equipped people to handle its jamboree". The Joint Task Force on the Niger-Delta was also making the same mistake, as it was bent on fighting the people, instead of consolidating on the peace efforts that the Federal Government initially started with. The manner the JTF was going about its job in the region was wrong, as some people had made sacrifice for peace in the region, only for it to be using the problems caused by irreconcilable elements to undermine the sacrifices that were made by others.
Owelle Dennis Otuaro, Delta state activist, reaction to the appointment of Gambari. July, 2008.
"As far as I am concerned, there have been a lot of committees, it has been a lot of talk-talk, no action. I can even tell you that let the President be the head of the committee, it will still be no action. Why not take up one or two things, do it for the people. It is not the question of the person that is there, remember what former President Olusegun Obasanjo did by bringing a religious person, Rev. Fr. Matthew Kukah, look at all what the man said they should do. Was it done? It is just to pacify the people that we are doing something, they are doing nothing. It is always one committee, then another and money is being spent on them. They are going to spend money to keep this people going, why can't they spend this money to rectify the problems in this place? Why not go right to the root of the problem. Let them get all the reports so far on the Niger Delta and start implementing the recommendations."
Anthony Cardinal Olubunmi Okogie, Archbishop of the Metropolitan of Lagos, July, 2008.
SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE AND A JOURNEY OF A THOUSAND MILES STARTS WITH A STEP.
Without any exaggeration, the Niger delta militant groups have come a long way in their just struggle not only in taking control over their mineral resources, but also in their quest and determination to get rid of the north, which has become a perpetual liability, burden and parasite to the whole of the south in general, for good. Irrespective of what might have transacted in the past between the Niger deltans and the north, nevertheless, they deserve our commendation for their bravery for taking up arms against their 21st century colonial master, which the north indeed is. They deserve our respect for their determination and perseverance in pursuit of their course. As the saying goes, "A journey of a thousand miles start with a 'bold and decicise' step." Undoubtedly, the activities of the Niger delta militants is the first step in their long journey to eventually taking full control over their resources and subsequently forming their own sovereign country, where they can rule over themselves and concentrate their resources 'exclusively' on their own development. In a way, it could be decribed as a continuation of the attempt of the Ndigbos to establish BIAFRA!
So far, their militant activities have yielded some remarkable results. They have succeded in internationalising their campaign for justice, and exposing the hypocrisy of the northern led Federal government, which could afford to spend billions of dollars of their (Niger delta's) oil money on building a new capital from scratch for itself in Abuja, but under different pretextes, has continued to deny the bonafide owners of the resources access to even basic ammenities. They have succeded in unmasking heartless northen dictators that have ruled over Nigeria since independence, which could afford to budget #444.6 billion of their money for security in the N.D., but give them only a fraction of this money for their survival.
The descendants of Usman Dan Fodio, realising that the Niger delta militants will not bulge, and are as well ready to go to any length to defend and fight for their interests, and with much at stake for them to loose, have been compeleld to call for a N.D. summit to address the crisis. It was a decision that they were forced to make out of desperation! Yaradua, eventually, came to terms with the fact that the Niger delta militants would never allow the north to continue stealing their resources in the name of building a 'fake and non-existing' One Nigeria that they never subscribed to.
However, despite the remarkable success that was recorded by the militants and the resonance the crises has generated all over the world, nevertheless, suffice to say that they still have a long way to go in their quest to take 'full' control over their resources and free themselves from the bondage called One Nigeria. This present stage could be the most tempting, trying and decisive in their struggle. Victory, though may seem at hand, however, any wrong or/and uncalculated move on their side could shatter their dream of freeing themselves from the clutches and hegemony of the evil northern led Nigerian government. Any tactical mistake could be fatal, irreversible and bring to naught all their efforts, perseverance and sacrifice.
Thus, the purpose of the concluding part of this article is to give recommendatios to the N.D. militant groups on how to avoid silly mistakes, and pursue to the logical and successful end their struggle and campaign which started even long before matyrs like Isaac Boro and his colleagues were murdered in cold blood by the carlous north. It's worth mentioning that uncountable number of illustrious Ijaw, Ogoni sons have already laid down their lives in the 'uncompromised war' for freedom of their down trodden people. Today, the freedom torch is being carried by new generations of brave N.D. sons like, Henry Okah, Asari Dokubo, Jomo Gbomo, Atete, to mention but just a few.
Needless to say that the south in general should, and must be interested in the fate and ultimate victory of the Niger delta militants over the evil Yaradua led government because their victory, undoubtedly, is also our victory. We all need to doff our hats for these young boys and men who are risking their lives for our 'collective' freedom. Definitely, the Niger delta crisis is a catalyst to the 'inevitable' disintegration of the evil country called Nigeria, a 'sole' creation of the heartless British to serve their selfish interests at the expense of the whole south. The fraud and illegality in the emergence of Nigeria as a country reminds me of a Yoruba proverb that goes thus " Ti iro ba sare fun ogun odun, otito a ba ni ojo kan." Which means that "If deceit/fraud has been running for 20 years, it will only take just a day for the truth to catch up with it." In essence, this proverb means that "No matter how long fraud or deceit has been existing, sooner or later, it will perish, and the truth will emerge." It's obvious that the days of Nigeria as a country, in its present composition, are already numbered. Sooner or later, Nigeria is bound to disintegrate! The question on the lips of most southerners is not 'whetherf,' but 'when' will the evil creation of the British finally cease to exist?
MEET THE MAJOR PLAYERS IN THE BIG NIGER DELTA OIL GAME.
Before giving any recommendations as regards to how the N.D. can avoid unnecessary mistakes and emerge winner in their struggle, it's of utmost importance to first understand the major players and stakeholders in the N.D. crises. Another synonym for the Niger delta crises is 'The Big International Oil Game.' Furthermore, a better understanding of the major players, their interests, the complicated and interwoven social, economic and political relationships among them will not only make our analysis and task much easier, but will consequently be invaluable in choosing the 'optimal' tactics and strategy that the N.D. militants need to adopt in order to 'completely' neutralise or counter any move by their adversaries.
There are 4 major players and/or stakeholders in the complicated N.D. crises and oil game. They are as follow:
1. The Federal Republic of Northern Nigeria;
2. The multinational oil companies;
3. Major importers of Niger delta oil - The United States and western countries;
4. The poor Niger deltans.
1. The Federal Republic of Northern Nigeria.
The first major player in the complicated oil game, undoubtedly is the Federal Republic of Northern Nigeria. The corrupt, incompetent, visionless and morally bankrupt northern led Nigerian government is mainly responsible for the crises, and the impoverishment in the Niger delta. The descendants of Usman Dan Fodio signed oil exploration agreements, which are obviously loopsided, with multinational oil companies. According to data from different reliable sources, multinationmal oil companies pay Nigeria about 5% for the privilege to drill its oil. Secondly, the Niger deltans were not allowed to make any inputs in the negotiation process. Their economic, political and other vital interests were completely ignored by the Nigerian government and the oil companies. Third, the northern led federal government has always turned a blind eye at the unprecedented scale of polliution in the region. By so doing, the north has not only proved that it is an ingrate, but equally does not care about the welfare of these people that lay most of the golden eggs that feed the whole of Nigeria. Fourth, the north has abandoned these people that give Nigeria more than 85% of its foreign earnings completely to their fate. A substantial amount of the Niger delta oil revenues have been stolen mainly by retired northern criminal officers.
2. Multinational oil companies.
The second major player in the Niger delta crises are the multinational oil companies. These companies are the richest, largest and most profitable companies in the world by assets, market capitalization and turn-over. The turn-over of each of them dwarf the GDP and budget of practically all African countries combined. They are like empires within empires. Although, quiet a number of them are public companies; some after privitization, nevertheless, their influence, resources and reach surpass almost all African and developing countries put together. Their main interests in countries where they operate, especially developing countries, is to exploit the resources of the host countries to the maximum, and leave the latter with very little or even practically nothing to show for their natural resources. Although, one of the most popular and standard agreements used in oil exploration is Production Share Agreement (PSA) which ensures that risks and returns are evenly distributed between multinational oil companies and oil exporting countries, however, in most cases, they take to different illicit, illegal and criminal tactics including bribery, outright threats, blackmails, manipulations, assasinations, etc, to coerce oil rich developing countries into entering deals that fall far short of meeting their interests. In addition, different sophisticated tax schemes including OFFSHORE TAXATION have been perfected by the multinational oil companies to deprive Nigeria of tax revenues running into billions of dollars every year. The high level of corruption in Nigeria, coupled with the incompetence or lack of adequate knowledge - legal, technical, technological, financial, enviromental, economic, political, etc, in negotiating oil exploration contracts by the Hausas and Fulanis, have equally contributed immensely to the lopsided oil deals between Nigeria and the multinational oil companies. Judging by the terms of the oil contracts, it will be no exaggeration to assert that the oil companies are exploring Nigeria's oil practically for free. Thirdly, the unprecedented pollution of the Niger delta has turned the region into an 'ecological disaster' area. The northern led government has never taken up this very serious issue with the multinationals. It has always stood aloof, and turned a blind eye to their plights.
3. Major importers of Niger delta oil: The United States and other western countries.
A substantial proportion of the Niger delta's oil is consumed by the United Styates and a couple of western countries. The US alone, accounts for about 12.5% of the total Nigeria's export. With the war in the gulf not likely to end soon, the US is even more dependent on the Niger delta's oil. The interests of these importers are in buying the oil of developing countries, including that of the Niger delta for the lowest price possible, and ensuring that oil exploration contracts are awarded to their respective national companies. In order to achieve these 2 objectives, the United States in particular, has not left any stone unturned. Energy is so vital to the United State's economy to the extent that it goes to any length to protect its energy security including lobbying, threats, blackmails, assasination and overthrowing of uncooperating head of states or presidents, intervention or influencing national politics through secret financing, consulting of opposition parties and/or candidates that have sworn allegiance to them on how to manipulate and rig elections, etc.
In his two shockingly revealing books: "Confessions of an economic hit man" and "The Secret History of the American Empire: The Truth About Economic Hit Men, Jackals, and How to Change the World," John Perkins, an American himself, laid bear the heinous crimes that the United States and multinational oil companies commit in developing countries in order to defend their economic interests . The United States through its intelligence body, the CIA, operates a sophisticated spying network in all countries that are members of Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, (OPEC) the voluntary international club of oil producing countries set up to regulate oil production or output among its members in order not to flood the market with excess oil which may lead to plummeting of oil prices in the global oil market. The CIA, with the full backing of the US government, operates a secret budget, which according to different publications from reliable sources, run into a trillion dollars! Part of this money is used to bribe key decision makers in OPEC countries, run its sophisticated spying networks all over the world including in European countries, lobbying, destabilising many developing countries, funding of opposition parties which have given assurance to toe the line of the US government on getting to power, planning and implimenting coup detats, assasination of presidents that are not cooperating, etc.
4. The Niger deltans.
The fourth player in the Niger delta crises are the Niger deltans. But, stating that the Niger deltans are one of the major players is in actual fact an over statement or misnomer because they are more of victims or ponds in the hands of the 3 major players earlier described above.
The Minor players. Apart from these 3 major players desribed above, there are new and minor players like the retired northern criminal officers who were dashed oil wells for their disservice to Nigeria and Nigerians. Others include multinational banks, insurance companies, Indian, Chinese and Russian companies justling for a place or a good share in the N.D. loot.
DAVID VERSUS GOLIATH.
As we can observe, the N.D. and its militants have formiddable opponents to overcome in order to achieve their objective. However, this does in no way mean that they can not be defeated.
The battle between the N.D. militants and these 3 formidabble opponents reminds one of the biblical battle between David and Goliath. In that biblical story, Goliath, because of his enourmous size and strength, was expected to emerge winner. David had no chance whatsoever. But David, miraculously, emerged the winner, against all odds! The task ahead of the N.D. militants today is even much tougher than that of David in the bible because David went into a duel with only one Goliath, but the N.D. militants are battling 3 GOLIATHS! And these are not 3 ordinary Golliaths, but 3 HORRIBLE AND HEARTLESS GOLIATHS that control and consume and explore more than at least half of the world energy, and are ready to go to any length in order to defend their selfish economic interests even if it means wiping out completely a whole country, race or continent. As far as they are concerned, it's the end that justifies the means. They are guided by the principle "WE LIVE AND YOU ALL DIE. However, despite their strength, resources and influence, nevertheless, I am convinced beyond any reasonable doubts that with the appropriate tactics, strategy, discipline, perseverance and determination, the N.D. militants will overcome these 3 monsters standing in their way. One of the main purposes of this article is to expose their weak points, and prove that indeed they are not only very vulnerable, but could be handed defeat, with the right tactics and strategy.
GET YOUR STRATEGY AND TACTICS RIGHT.
In this article, we will be talking a lot about strategy and tactics. It's so important in our discussion that we need to explain the difference between the two from the onset. A strategy is like a plan of action. Tactics are the instruments or methods that you use in realising your strategy or plan. Tactics and strategy are inseperatable - they are like a coin with 2 sides. One is not complete without the other. They both complement each other. The more risky a task, the more careful you should be in choosing your strategy and tactics. The more important a task, the more refined your strategy and tactics should be. If you get your strategy wrong, your tactics will not be effective. Likewise, bad tactics can not save a good strategy from failure. You will just be expending your limited resources in pursuit of a wrong course. And sooner or later, you are bound to fail. Good tactics allow you to achieve your strategy with minimal resources - all things being equal.
IF YOU DON'T HAVE A LEVERAGE, GET ONE IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU HAVE ONE, STRENGHTEN IT.
As has already been mentioned earlier, the N.D. militants have recorded a remarkable victory by forcing the evil Nigerian government to call for a summit. Although, it's obvious that the so called Niger delta summit is another trick or plot that the descendants of usman dan fodio has devised to buy time in order to carry out its hidden agenda. The task before them now is to increase their leverage before and during the summit and/or negotiations.
The word leverage has its roots from the word 'lever.' As we learnt in our physics class, with the help of a lever, heavy loads can be lifted with very little force. Without a lever, this would have been much difficult or practically impossible. Similarly, in negotiations or conflicts, a lever helps us to neutralise or counter whatever advantage a strong or powerful opponent may have over you. A leverage helps a side, which may look weaker, to strengten its position and consequently defeat or get a better deal from a very strong opponent that may appear invincible. In negotiations and conflictology, a leverage helps you to strenghten your position before your opponent. Leverage, at least, helps you to level the field when competing with a formidabble opponent.
Leverage comes in different forms. It could be a piece of information that you have about your opponent, which he is unaware of, and you can use it in negotiations to get a concession from a very powerful opponent. Leverage could even be a piece of information that is publicly available, but be psychological in nature. For example, by openly or secretly revealing to your opponent that in actual fact, he is very vulnerable and not as strong or invincible as he believes, or wants you to believe. If you don't have a leverage that you can use to counter a much stronger opponent in a negotiation or conflictology, your opponent, believing in his invincibility, will always take advantage of you and dictate to you his terms.
The strategy of the militants should revolve around not only putting pressure on these 3 monsters to want to negotiate and reach agreements with them (militants) as quickly as possible, but negotiate with them as equals during the summit. In fact, the militants need to adopt a strategy that will make these 3 monsters 'beg' them, and not dictate to them before and during negotiations.
In order to achieve this, the militants need to strengten their leverage to the maximum. Thus, the strategy the N.D. need to adopt in order to strenghten their leverage is to prove and demonstrate to these 3 monsters that they are indeed very vulnerable and not invincible as they might have thought. But it takes an analytic mind to figure out these vulnerabilities.
First, and most importantly, what the N.D. militants and the indigenes need to understand at this stage of the conflict is that these 3 monsters have much more to loose, compared to them, simply because they (the Niger deltans) have neither investments nor costly properties to protect. They have practically nothing else to loose save their precious lives. They are even poorer than the church rats. Secondly, they must understand that they have reached the point of no return in their face off with these 3 monsters. This is a very powerful psychological weapon which the militants must exploit by revealing over and over to the 3 monsters that they (the monsters) have much more to loose compared to them. The militants must announce it loudly and over and over to these 3 monsters that they are at their mercy, and not vice versa, because all their investments and source of revenues are concentrated in the Niger delta. Before discussing about the tactics that need to be adopted by the militants in order to realise their strategy and strenghten their leverage to the maximum, we need to first talk about something that is equally important.
THE MISSION STATEMENT AND OBJECTIVE MUST COME FIRST - BEFORE THE TACTICS AND STRATEGY.
A mission statement could be defined as your reason for embarking on a project or venture. a mission statement is like a statement of purpose. It should not be confused with an objective. For example, the mission statements of the Niger deltans could be the following:
a. To make the Niger delta clean by world standard;
b. To increase the standard of living of the indigenes to world standard;
c. To take part in all oil negotiations and have the veto power or final say over any agreement;
d. To review and renegotiate all oil and gas deals previously entered into by the north on their behalf;
e. To get a fair oil deal for their communities and indigenes;
f. To end political humiliation of their people by the northern government;
g. To end the pogrom of their people by the northern led Nigerian government;
h. To end all economic deprivations by the northern led Nigerian government;
i. To take full control of their resources;
j. To rule over themselves;
k. To bring the capital to the Niger delta;
l. To develop their culture and language.
An objective is what you need to do in order to fulfill your mission. Objective is more about where exactly do you really want to be? When exactly do you really want to be there? Objectives should be concrete and measurable. Your mission statements and objective(s) should preceed any strategy and tactics because they help you in formulating your strategy, which in turn helps you to formulate your tactics. Without mission statements, purpose and objective, it is illogical to have a strategy and tactics. Formulating a strategy and tactics without first formulating your mission and objective is like putting the cart before the horse. Acting without a mission, purpose and objective is like not knowing exactly where exactly you want to go and why you are going to a particular place. In such a situation, failure is guaranteed.
WHAT DO YOU GUYS REALLY WANT? DEFINE IT AND STAND BY IT.
The N.D. militants, all along, have been talking about injustice, neglect, maginalization, economic deprivation, etc, but, they are yet to come up with a concrete proposasl or objective on how they want to resolve these issues.
Do they have a criteria or benchmark for developing the Niger delta? In my opinion, the N.D. don't have a 'clear' mission and objective. All they want is justice, but they have not really defined how they want to achieve it. As far as developing the Niger delta is concerned, they need to ask and answer the following questions:
1. How many universities must be built in the N.D.? What should be their capacities and quality in terms of level of computerisation, availability of modern well equipped laboratories and technical specialities?
2. How many schools must be built in the N.D.? What should be their capacities and quality?
3. How many kilometers of roads must be built? What should be their quality?
4. How many hospitals must be built? What should be their capacities and quality in terms of equipments, availability of drugs and well trained personnel?
5.How many national and international airports must be built? What should be their capacities and quality?
6. How many factories must be built? What should be their capacities and quality? What kind of factories?
7. How many kilometers of rail lines must be built? What should be their capacities and quality?
8. How many of their indigenes must be employed by NNPC and multinational oil companies? To what positions?
9. What should be the minimum number of their indigenes that must constitute senior management positions and overall staff of NNPC and multinational oil companies?
10. How will the education and medical service of the indigenes be financed?
11. What should be the minimum percentage of their indigenes that must be employed in the universities, schools, hospitals, etc,?
12. How much electricity must be generated in the Niger delta?
13. What is the minimum percentage of households that must have pipe borne water in their houses?
14. When exactly will these projects be started and completed? Can the government provide a detailed time-table?
15. Who is going to be responsible for implementing and managing these projects?
16. How are these projects going to be funded?
17. What is the minimum percentage of their people that must be employed in the Nigerian civil service?
Therefore, before going to any summit or sitting down with the northern government, they must have concrete proposals, vision and objective on how they want to develop the region. It will be a fatal mistake on the part of the Niger deltans to wait or rely on the north to provide a blue print for them at the summit. When you have an objective, your task is half solved because you know exactly what you want; why you want it and you start thinking about what you need to do in order to have it. When you have a mission and objective, then you know exactly where you are going, why you are going there, and you start making plans on how to get there. When you have a mission and an objective, you know how to defend your demand and it will be very difficult for anybody to take you for a ride. The danger of getting your mission and objective wrong from the onset is very grave because you will be squandering your limited resources in pursuit of the shadow, and failure is guaranteed even before you set out on your journey.
This is what objective is all about. Therefore, before any summit, they need to provide sincere, concrete and explicit answers to the following additional questions:
1. Do they just want some percentage increase in the oil revenues and continue to remain part of Nigeria?
2. If yes, what percentage will be accepted to them?
3. What arguments do they have to defend the percentage increase they will be asking for?
4. What amendments do they want to the oil deals entered into on their behalf by the north with multinational oil companies?
5. How much of the roughly $60 billion reserve fund do they want?
6. How can they justify the figure?
7. Why do they want to remain in Nigeria and not on their own - rule themselves and concentrate all their resources exclusively on their own development?
8. Is there any benefit for them if they remain in the same country with the north?
9. What have they benefitted so far from being part of Nigeria?
10. What would they be loosing politically, economically, militaryly and socially if they remain in the same country with the north - which is made of millions of half-baked specialists, beggars and unproductive retired criminal officers like Buhari, Babangida, Danjuma, Gowon, Mukhtar, etc,?
11. Are they afraid of been raided by their neighbours, Ndigbos, if they form their own sovereign country?
12. Is there any justification for this fear?
13. If there is a justification, then is there any way for them to remain on their own and still protect themselves from the invasion of the Ndigbos?
14. Which issues could lead to tension between them and the Ndigbos?
15. What mechanisms, acceptable to the two parties, could be used to minimize or remove them completely?
16. As a sovereign country, what kind of political, economic and military relationships do they want to establish with other ethnic groups in Nigeria, especially with their closest neighbour, the Ndigbos?
17. If they eventually decide to form their own sovereign country, which ethnic groups would it consist of?
18. How do their people or indigenes feel about getting rid of the north, and forming their own seperate country?
19. How are they going to sell such idea to their people?
20. Which territory or communities will go into forming their sovereign country?
21. Are they in support of Abuja being the capital of Nigeria?
22. Would they want the capital to be relocated to the South south?
23. How should the Nigerian army and police be restructured?
24. What is the minimum percentage of their indigenes that must be recruited by the Nigerian army, State Security Service and police?
25. What is the justification for the north to concentrate all Nigeria's ammunitions and military bases in the north?
26. Do they support the fact that all of Nigeria's ammunitions and military bases are concentrated in the north?
27. What do they think about the idea of redistributing Nigeria's ammunitions and military bases equally among the 4 regions?
28. What is their opinion on federalism?
29. How hard are they going to push for federalism?
30. How are they going to argue for compensation for past economic deprivation by the northern government? What formula will be used in the calculation?
31. What percentage of their indigenes must make up future cabinet of ministers?
If I were to be a consultant or adviser to the Niger deltans on what objective to pursue or adopt, then I will advise them to make "breaking away from Nigeria in order to rule over themselves and concentrate all their resources 'exclusively' on their own development" their primary objective. Based on my objective analysis, breaking away from Nigeria and forming their own sovereign countyry is the 'most feasible' way of achieving whatever mission they might have set out to realise within the shortest time possible. It's only a sovereign country that can give them 'full' control over their resources and destiny. All other options are compromise, and fall far short of achieving their mission. It's only a sovereign country that will give them the opportunity to use their resources to provide everything they want for themselves, and avoid the humiliation of shuttling to Abuja all the time with cap in hand to beg for a 'fraction' of what belongs to them.
Furthermore, it has been proved that the oil in the Niger delta will last for 40 years, at most. Therefore, it makes sense for the Niger
deltans to use the remaining reserve in developing their territory, and not allow the north to steal or squander it on a fake one Nigeria
project.
Apart from the political and economic benefits of breaking away which were highlighted in my articles "One Nigeria: To be or not to be? (parts 1-6), there is another rational reason behind this advise . It's based on simple logic and common sense. Presently, by taking up arms against the northern led federal government, the militants are already risking their lives. Therefore, what is the sense or the justification in risking their lives for peanuts. Why risk your lives for a mere 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 40 or even 50% increase to the Niger delta derivation fund? Since life is the most precious and invaluable asset possesed by man, why sell it so cheap? Why not risk it for 100 percent?! Why not risk it for the sovereignty of the Niger delta?! Why not solve this problem once and for all, and forget about it?
Since the risk is the same, but with different outcomes, rewards or dividends, why not go for the maximum dividend - sovereignty? In these crises, the best option for the N.D. is what we call "the pareto-optimal" in game theory. The pareto optimal is the best allocation that best serves their self-interest. In game theory, an allocation is pareto optimal if there is an alternative allocation at which one person is better off and no one is worse off. An allocation is not pareto optimal (i.e. it's not a good allocation) if there is another better allocation at which at least one person is better off and no one is worse off. The N.D. crises is a typical 'zero-sum' game, most especially with the north. Zero sum games are games in which the players have completely opposite interests, that is, the gain for one player equals the loss for another player. It's a strictly competitive game in which the players can not hope to improve their pay off through any kind of co-operation. If the N.D. play a non-zero sum game or try to reach a non-pareto optimal with the north within the scope of Nigeria, the consequence is that they will have to compromise and settle for 5, 10, or 15% hand-out of their own oil from the north. Playing a co-operative, and not a competitive game with the north means that they will have to compromise their political and economic interests in order to accomodate the north. Playing a co-operative game with the north tantamounts to the north dictating to them at the summit what percentage of their resources they are entitled to. Thus, their loss will be the gain of the north. That's why I am advising the N.D. to seek a pareto optimal for themselves, and not for the north or Nigeria as a whole. Pareto optimal is about taking a position or pursuing an objective that best meets their interests. And the best way for the Niger deltans to achieve a pareto optimal (for themselves) is to play a non-cooperative game with the north by acting independently and taking a position that best serve their interests in the short and long runs.
Another major reason why I am advising the N.D. to make setting up their own sovereign state their main objective is that there is the danger that any (preliminary) agreement reached with the north at the summit may be over turned in the next 5, 10, 15 or 20 years by a northern military dictator, who might come to power through a military coup, or by a northern civilian president through a constitution review/amendment in the Senate or House of Assembly where his party has the overwhelming majority as is the case with the PDP today. Nobody can give a hundred percent guarantee that there will be no more military coups or election riggings in Nigeria. The north might want to set a trap for the Niger deltans by quickly conceeding or agreeing to any of their demands now (at the summit) in order to cool down tension, and allow the militants to come out of their hidings, but later launch attacks or a man-hunt for them in the future. There is the danger and risk that the north might want to revenge in the future. However, if the Niger delta becomes a sovereign country, it will be very difficult or practically impossible for the north to do this.
Going by this reasoning, my advise for the Niger delta militants is that they should state clearly that they don't believe any more in one Nigeria, and want to opt out. They should make it clear to the north that the purpose of the summit is to discuss about the peaceful dissolution of Nigeria and the terms. They should make it clear to the north that they are ready to discuss about concessions for a peaceful dissolution, and that that their decision to opt out of Nigeria is firm and non-negotiable! There are more than enough arguments to justify such a demand. They include the following:
1. The British formed Nigeria without their consent;
2. They have no legal obligation before Nigeria after October 1st, 1960;
2. After almost 50 years since Nigeria's independence, they came to the sad but correct conclusion that the political, economic and military structures in Nigeria are not compactible with their development and aspirations'
3. They want to rule themselves and concentrate their resources exclusively on their own development. This is the wish of their people.
TO BE CONTINUED....
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