19 Sep 2007 |
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Abuja: An Ideal Capital For The North. Abuja as a capital is an ideal place for the North in all sense of the word. They figured out that if another civil war started, a military Head of State from the North would have more than enough time at his disposal to quickly relocate to a military base in Kaduna or any other city in the North, from where a well planned attack or defence could be launched and co-ordinated. Moreover, in the event of another civil war, the enemy would have to cross the River Niger or/and Benue which would make his task much more difficult. The fact that the new capital is located in Abuja gives any Northern military Head of state a psychological and military advantage. They won't feel "vulnerable" any longer. No wonder after the failed Orkar coup where he announced the secession of the South from the North, Babangida quickly relocated to Abuja. Thus, the decision to relocate the capital to Abuja provides much more security to a Northern Head of state, in the event of a civil war, but makes a non-Northern Nigerian President very vulnerable, and as our analysis has shown, does not make the President of Nigeria safer in anyway if a war breaks out between Nigeria and a foreign country.
Dilemma: How To Sell The Abuja Project To Nigerians Having agreed on Abuja as the new capital of Nigeria, the Northern Military officers had a formidable problem before them to tackle in order to realise their objective. How would they sell this idea or project to Nigerians, most especially non-Northerners, in order not to raise any suspicion? Although, it was a military regime, they couldn't just say outright that the capital would be relocated to the North just like that without any cogent reason. In addition, since the former capital, Lagos, was regarded as a Yoruba territory, and the Yorubas were on the federal government side during the civil war, they needed to be careful and diplomatic about how they went about it. The Northern military officers also could not just announce that the new capital would be relocated in any of the already existing major Northern cities like Kano, Kaduna, Zaria, Sokoto e.t.c. That would definitely raise suspicion too. They needed a more civilised or refined way of selling the idea. The first step in selling the idea of a new capital was discrediting or representing Lagos as an unsuitable city for Nigeria's capital because of his closeness to the ocean. Other flimsy excuses like congestion and equal access to all Nigerians were added for solidity to hide the 'real' motive. However, the biggest trick that was played on Nigerians by the Northern military officers was the "equal accessibility" of a new capital to all Nigerians! They sold it to them well and they swallowed it completely! I am sure if you are objective and follow my analysis with an "open mind," by now, you should be convinced beyond any reasonable doubt that the "hidden motive" for relocating Nigeria's capital from Lagos to Abuja was not because the Northern military officers really cared about the security of Nigeria and Nigerians. The capital was relocated to the North for their own "personal security" and other "strategic" economic and political reasons which include the following: (1) To have "complete control" of political events in the country; (2) To "enforce" the "artificial" and "non-existing" unity of the country, by tying the South to Abuja, thus making the possibility of breaking up the country much more difficult; (3) If Nigeria broke up, they would already have a modern capital of their own completely at their disposal, completely built with the Niger Delta money.
Let's Compromise And Meet "In The Middle" Tactic/Trick The choice of Abuja as the new capital of Nigeria reminds me of one of several manipulations in negotiations called "Let's compromise and meet in the middle." This is how it works: Imagine a very rich seller asking for $200,000 for his house, whose market price is between $185,000 and $195,000. The buyer is also well aware of the market price of the house but unfortunately, his reserve price i.e. the maximum price he could afford to pay for the price is just $170,000. However, the buyer instead of asking the seller for a discount with a promise to pay the balance later, decides to be unreasonable and asks the seller to sell the house for him for $100,000. The seller of course expresses his surprise and refuses flatly to sell his house for that price. The buyer, instead of offering a reasonable price, decides to do a "price manipulation." After doing some head scratching, he asks the seller to let him have the house for $105,000. The seller again refuses. The buyer then increases his price to $110,000. The seller points out to the buyer that he is not being reasonable with his offer because the market price for his house is $195,000. The buyer realising that he is not making any headway, decides to play a trick on the seller. He tells the buyer "Okay Mr. S, let's reach a compromise. Let's meet in the middle. Let's add our two prices ($110,000+$195,000) together and divide it by 2." The seller gets hold of his calculator, does the calculation and arrives at $152,500 which is $17,500 less than the buyer's reserved price of $170,000 but is still $42,500 far short of the seller's selling price of $195,000. When the seller points out to him that his new price is still $42,500 short of his asking price, the buyer tells him that he has in actual fact increased his offer substantially from $100,000 to $152,000 which is 50% more than his first offer. But the seller does not budge. Then the buyer tells him that he should not be greedy and reminds him that after all he is his neighbour and moreover, the buyer is a very rich man with an uncountable number of houses. He quickly adds that selling "just this one house" to him from his numerous houses would in no way make him poorer in any case because the $42,500 difference was nothing to him (the seller.) Furthermore, he complains to the seller that this is the "only" chance for him to ever buy a house in his life, and if he misses the opportunity, his children will become destitute. The seller looks with anger and pity at the buyer and says in a harsh voice: "Okay let's compromise, bring the $152,500." The buyer thanks the seller and quickly writes a check of $152,500 for the seller. <!--[endif]-->
A Loss-Win Transaction for Mr. S. Now, let us analyse this transaction objectively. In this transaction, the buyer saved at least $32,500 (if we assume that the lowest market price for the house was $185,000) while the seller, unfortunately lost at least $32,500 in the same transaction. In otherwords, it was a WIN-LOSS transaction and not a WIN-WIN transaction which all parties in any business transaction must strive towards. The buyer was able to secure the deal because he played the "Let's compromise and meet at the middle" trick on the seller and made the seller to have unnecessary and unjustified "guilty conscience." Unfortunately, the seller allowed himself to be manipulated by the buyer. What would you had advised the seller to do in this situation? The seller should had "neutralised" the arguments of the buyer by telling him that it was not a must that he should buy that particular house and since $152,500 was the highest amount he could afford, he (the buyer) would do better to look for another house within that price range elsewhere while he (the seller) in turn would do better by looking for another buyer that could afford to pay the market price of his house. In addition, in reply to the buyer's statement about his uncountable number of houses, he should had told him that the number of his houses should not be the issue in the deal and that since he was a business man, therefore, he was selling his house to make a profit and not for the sake of philantrophy. The seller should not have given in to the blackmail of the buyer. This example above illustrated exactly what happened between the North and the South. The North, in this case was the poor buyer while the South was the very rich seller. The North successfully played the "Let's compromise and establish our new capital in the middle "for the sake of peace, fairness and unity'" trick on the South, knowing very well that the middle, no matter how it was calculated, would definitely be in the North since the north had a larger, but predominantly desert and impoverished land mass compared to the very rich land in the south. The North used "emotional and demagogic" arguments to lure the South into a very costly and unnecessary project which was financed "completely" by the oil in the Niger Delta. The insecurity of Lagos as a capital, because of its closeness to the ocean, was exaggerated by the North in order to make it (Lagos) unsuitable for a capital. When the issue of the enormous investments needed to build a new capital from scratch was raised by the South, the North assured us that we, i.e. Nigeria (in this case the South) had more than enough resources to finance the project. The huge investments needed to build Abuja was purposely underplayed. This should not surprise us. After all, Gowon, during his 9 year stagnant and visionless reign, said many times that "Nigeria's problem was not money, but how to spend it." Unfortunately, some Southerners who naively believed in the "fake, artificial and non-existing unity" of the country fell for this mischievous plot not knowing that they were being manipulated. Other Southerners were bought over with a piece of the action (Abuja contracts) Thus, the decision to relocate the capital from Lagos to Abuja was in favour of the North alone, in all sense of the word, but cost the South, especially the South-South (the Niger Deltans) and South-East billions of dollars that should had been committed into the development of their land. Abuja was a very BIG WIN for the North but a very BIG LOSS to the South, most especially the owners of the resources that was used to finance this elephant project.
Putting The Cart Before The Horse As I have said before, building a new capital from scratch is a very, very expensive undertaking even for very rich countries. There was virtually no need for Abuja. The country could have still got along with Lagos quite well. The decision to build Abuja was a "totally" wrong, unjustified and very costly economic decision for a developing country like Nigeria that could not boast of stable electricity; water supply; adequate and functioning infrastructure; a reliable and well-funded educational system; efficient and affordable health care services; adequate pension programs, even up till now. These are what ought to have been tackled first. Then, invest heavily in industries, agriculture and information technology in particular. These would have served as an impulse or locomotive that would have driven the economy to great heights. Abuja shouldn't have been the priority.
Fiscal Policy: Aim Not Achieved There are cases in economic development when large government spending helps to boost the economy. But this was not the case with Abuja and Nigeria. Why? Because virtually all the construction and supply contracts to build Abuja were heavily inflated, imported and last but not least, they were carried out by foreign companies. So, instead of the contracts creating jobs for Nigerians and boosting our economy, it was the negative effect that we got because the money spent on these projects did not circulate in our economy but were received by foreign banks. Thus, it was a double loss for the South. <!--[endif]-->
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