12 Feb 2009 |
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Sticking with Yar’Adua in 2011 is the least of the evils By Ayo Akinfe Our sickly president Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’Adua finally returned to work on Monday after a two-week break, putting an end to all the rumours that surrounded what he would spend his holiday doing. Apart from all sorts of gossip about whether he would spend the time in a German hospital, Obudu Cattle Ranch, Katsina or in Dodan Barracks, Mr President’s leave also led to a humorous debate about whether the legislature should be informed it or not. More seriously, it raised questions about his future. For me, all the drama about whether the senate president and speaker of the House of Representatives should have been informed is just a bit of light-hearted banter. We need such trivia in our democracy to lighten its load but frankly, it was just something to provide us relief from our more serious problems. What cannot be described as comic, however, is the state of Mr President’s health. When you have a president with a severe kidney ailment running the affairs of 140m and presiding over a gross domestic product of $200bn, it a cause for concern. In the case of Nigeria, what makes it worse is that succession would not be the seamless matter the constitution makes it out to be. Reading all the commentaries on Yar’Adua’s health while he was away, I found that quite a few Nigerians believe he should be allowed to serve out his first term but be shown the door in 2011. Now, I can well empathise with such commentators as Mr President has done very little to justify the mandate he received in 2007. Let us leave the dubious manner in which the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Maurice Iwuruwuru conducted the elections to one side for a moment. Can anyone point to any significant achievements Yar’Adua has achieved since he has been in office? The likes of Babatunde Fashola and Emmanuel Uduaghan have been in power for the same amount of time and we can clearly see what they have done. Electricity supply remains as epileptic as ever, our roads remain death traps, fresh water supply is scarcer in Nigeria than it is in the middle of the Sahara Desert, the Niger Delta crisis shows no sign of ending, insecurity reigns supreme and above all our economy remains comatose. Looking at all this, one could easily come to the conclusion that our esteemed Alhaji should be quietly retired to Katsina in two years time to make way for someone with the energy, vitality, vision and good health to do a better job. However, it is not as simple as that. In 2005, we had a political confab where it was agreed that the presidency of Nigeria will rotate between the north and the south. It was also agreed that whichever half of the nation’s turn it is, the three zones it is made up of will debate among themselves and decide who should have the plum job. This principle was put into good effect in 2007 when Chief Obasanjo moved back to Otta and all things being equal, it should work well again in 2015. We should stop deluding ourselves into thinking that a sitting president will lose an election in Nigeria. What we effectively have is an eight-year tenure. If we decide to disrupt this delicate arrangement and shove our Katsina Alhaji out of the way in 2011, what happens next? For starters, will the northwest accept that it has served a term and allow the presidency to return to the south? If another northern candidate is nominated, will be not want to serve two terms, thus disrupting the existing precarious arrangement. Say for arguments sake our erstwhile vice president Goodluck Jonathan takes over, would his selection be popular with the southeast? Given the number of concessions the southeast made in 2007 like giving up the speakership, big hitters like Alex Ekwueme not standing for president and the giving up of the vice president’s slot, I suspect that some sort of pact was reached in which the PDP promised the zone the presidency in 2015. We still do not know the full details of what agreement the southeast made with the PDP hierarchy in 2007 and if they agreed that Nigeria should have an Igbo president in 2015, we still do not know if Dr Jonathan will accept this arrangement when the time comes. Whatever happens, shoving Alhaji Yar’Adua aside in 2011 will be a recipe for confusion, infighting and political instability. We can pretend as much as we like that having the best person in the job is the most important criteria when electing a leader but the fact remains that if a nation is on fire, no president, no matter how good, will be able to govern, let alone achieve anything. As things stand, nobody disputes Yar’Adua’s right to the presidency and the tranquillity this has provided at least gives us some breathing space. Imagine having an occupant in Aso Rock, whose very right to live there is being challenged by three of Nigeria’s six geo-political zones. As bad as Yar’Adua’s government might be, such a president will be worse. Without legitimacy, no president can govern a country, as he will spend all his time putting out fires, appeasing disaffected parts of the country and trying to justify himself all the time. For the sake of tranquillity, we appear to have no choice other than allow Alhaji Yar’Adua to remain in office until 2015. Our biggest mistake allowing him to become president in 2007 but like the proverbial omelette, we have broken our eggs and cannot put them back into their shells again. Having been caught between a rock and a hard place, I believe leaving Mr President in office until 2015 constitutes the lesser of all the evils we face. Living in a country with a weak government is far better than living in a country whose government is incapacitated by political violence. Ayo Akinfe aakinfe@aol.com
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