Having experienced the first leg of the elections Nigerians can heave half a sigh of relief, we would totally be able to exhale come May 29^th but till then our ribcages are still lifted up high as we go through the roller coaster of these elections. We cannot say that the gubernatorial and state houses of assembly elections are concluded yet, as I write there are still flash points in Edo, Ondo and Kano states. As the days begin to unfold we shall be able to evaluate critically the conduct and manner of the state elections throughout Nigeria, but for now a cursory look at the results of the Lagos State gubernatorial election and its implications would suffice for now.

That Lagos hosts the most diverse and sophisticated voter population in Nigeria is incontrovertible. That the Lagos voter is more enlightened when compared to most voters all around Nigeria is a loosely established fact and it would be easy to assert that the Lagos electorate is the one electorate truly representative of the multifaceted Nigerian society. Though the capital has been moved to Abuja one would say that the true Nigerian composition still subsumes every grain of the Lagos soil. The Lagos electorate boasts of people of different tribes, religions, occupations, background than any other electorate in Nigeria , in terms of the wealth, political, socio-economic and ideological gulf present in Nigeria, the Lagos electorate is most embroiled in these fluxes of Nigerian society than any other electorate in Nigeria. The Lagos electorate can be assumed to be the most independent minded electorate in Nigeria as it is less entangled in the primordial considerations that afflict the electorate of other states, if any electorate could represent the future of the Nigerian electorate, it would no doubt be the Lagos electorate.

Due to the noted character of Lagos and her electorate, the election into the Round house in Lagos is actually the most exciting race in the gubernatorial elections; the elections into the Round house in Lagos state is only second in importance to the election into Aso rock for obvious reasons. Lagos is still the commercial capital of Nigeria and has Nigeria ’s largest market, it is inevitable then that most commercial enterprises are concerned about the state of affairs in Lagos and its bearing on their operations. Lagos hosts important socio-economic institutions that are integral to Nigeria’s corporate existence such as the ports. Reading Sir Ahamdu Bello the Sarduana of Sokoto’s biography My life, the ports in Lagos weighed heavily against Northerners going on their own during the pre-independence era as their viability as a separate entity without the ports was clearly unthinkable. Above all this considerations the human capital and resource in Lagos makes Lagos truly the heart of Nigeria, as there exists no greater concentration of people, professionals and ideas anywhere as there exists in Lagos, Lagos has always enjoyed a historical and positional advantage in Nigeria from inception.

Elections into the Round house this year was particularly of importance most especially for the PDP on one side and the AC on the other as the gubernatorial election of this year was a renewal of the hostilities between the politics and the persona of the two parties. The politics as represented by PDP and its “do-or-die” mentality and the newly transmuted AC and its politics of fervent opposition to the PDP. In addition, the personality of Obasanjo and his bloated conception of his statesman status and the bellicose nature of an unbending Tinubu and his belief in the infallibility of his political network in Lagos were forces crudely at play in this renewed encounter. There were also extraneous rivalries and characters enmeshed in this whole drama such as Bode George and his loathing of the Tinubu crowd, the fall-out of the AC primaries involving Afikuyomi, Pedro and others and the break-up of AC from AD, the assassination of Funsho Williams - all these were condiments to a very tasty meal. 

The ultimate price in this duel was power and survival. The PDP needed Lagos to cement its status as a truly southwestern power; it is a fact that in terms of affluence and power all the other southwestern states together pale in comparison to the bride price Lagos would bring the PDP. Obasanjo needed to wrest the state from his eternal gadfly- Tinubu, as wining Lagos would afford him true respect as a Yoruba leader - a ravening craving of Obasanjo despite his many laurels, his campaign in Lagos was meant to convey the seriousness of PDP’s bid once and for all for Lagos . For Tinubu, winning Lagos was essential to consolidate his position as the “Caesar of Lagos” and he had to prove that his defeat of PDP’s “capture” bid of Lagos in 2003 was no fluke. The survival of AC was seriously at stake as a party of reckoning, despite Edo and Adamawa AC chances elsewhere were slim nationally, a victory at the polls in Lagos would give AC a place at the table. Concerning Tinubu it is rumored that in other to counter the possible troubles he might encounter with EFCC after his immunity from prosecution is stripped he needed his man in the Round house to afford him room to maneuver.

The elections have been concluded with AC/AD giving a thrashing to the PDP for a third time since 1999. Tinubu in this duel with Obsanjo has dealt the president a jaw-breaking upper cut, the results in itself was phenomenal with the AC trouncing the PDP 828,484 to 389,688 votes, close to a 1 to 3 ratio. The real arbiter of this fight was the electorate of Lagos, the message was unambiguous as to where the citizens of Lagos stood in the duel between the PDP with its federal might and Tinubu with AC. People did not vote for AC because they were particularly convinced about the integrity or program of the party, people voted AC in protest and frustration at the PDP and its politics and policies. The Lagos electorate being truly representative of the Nigeria we intend to build, one where the co-existence of different tribes and ethnic groups is integral to nationhood the PDP was told in unambiguous terms that people do not see the PDP as a party of the future.

PDP self afflicted itself with this defeat, its bid started to die from the murder of Funsho Williams - an unsolved murder of a PDP chieftain and unfortunately PDP’s best candidate. Also its veiled threat of further emasculation of Lagos (as embodied in the Obasanjo’s campaign speech in Lagos ) if she does not come into the ruling party was tactless, a trait common with the president and his politics. If Lagos in the last eight years had borne the brunt of this federal exclusion for so long what other than pure tactlessness made the president believe the Lagos electorate would surrender now? Such veiled threat would work in Osun, Ogun and Oyo, states that cannot boast of the sophistication and diversity of the Lagos electorate, but surely not in Lagos as has been proven. Also, the choice of Musiliu Obanikoro as the PDP flagbearer was another tactless move by the PDP, following “Koro’s” antecedents and his penchant for being associated with thugs and that his persona was in itself offensive to the electorate especially when compared to the slain Funsho Williams, the Lagos electorate did not have to loose sleep about their choice. The “Koro” choice was another bitter example (forgive the pun) of PDP’s attempt to hurt the sensibilities of a hard pressed electorate who for eight years have been excluded by the politics of PDP and her insatiable quest for power and “Koro’s” ascendancy was righlty interpreted as PDP’s brazen attempt to use force as personified by “Koro” to subjugate the state. 

As expected there shall be jubilation in the Tinubu/AC camp, but a serious examination of the true reasons for this victory should be examined by the in-coming governor. Fashola should be aware he owes his victory more to the opposition of the electorate to the PDP than the popularity of his party or benefactor. He should consider that the patience of this electorate would run thin in the next four years if the expected dividends do not arrive. Fashola should expect that in the next four years he would be facing a more enlightened and more restless electorate and he would be in PDP’s present shoes in Lagos if a viable option comes forth and he has not delivered. Fashola should also understand that the PDP would most likely control the center thus the electorate is expecting that he looks for other avenues to meet the increasing needs of Lagos or take a less bellicose posture than the one his predecessor has taken so that Lagos can move forward.

The real heroes as usual are the Nigerian people and in this case the Lagos electorate. The electorate of Lagos gives us an insight into the future electorate in Nigeria- voting populations that would be increasingly incensed at poor governance and policies, naked grasp of power and political banditry. Voting populations that would be further insulated from threats and electoral violence but would vote their conscience and take principled positions on issues. We seem a far way from that nationally, but from the results of the elections in Lagos on Saturday we might not be as far as we believe we are. Democratic values and principles are not forged in a day, but as we trudge through the ores of pain as we are experiencing we would one day arrive at that place where only our best shall be voted in office. Till then we would celebrate the victory of the Lagos electorate!

Robot  # 1 | 16.04.2007 04:34

Having experienced the first leg of the elections Nigerians can heave half a sigh of relief, we w...Read the full article.