11 Jul 2007 |
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What if Former President Matthew Olusegun Okikiolakan Aremu Obasanjo is the "Messiah"?: The Story of Modern Nigeria and those who wants to shape it. This essay will not discuss all of the events which occurred before the reign of Gen. Yakubu Gowon and this is because the writer believes that the title of "Modern Nigeria" belongs to his era. In this writer's opinion, Modern Nigeria evolved with the creation of more constituent states and a federal capital territory, Lagos. It should be noted that the newly created 12 states are part and parcel of the whole physical land mass of Nigeria as always existed since before Nigeria won her Independence from Great Britain in 1960. Modern Nigeria gave births to many individuals, groups and associations (political and otherwise) who are all covertly and overtly up-in-arms against and amongst one another. The only attribute which is constant and mutually inclusive and which, yet, brings about joy and affection and ultimately, collaborations within these many opposing forces is corruption, as epitomized by wanton embezzlement of public funds and the stashing of same abroad for the benefits of our traducer. Gowon's Era: It is my strong opinion that if Rtd. Gen. Gowon was allowed some more years with local and international pressure being vigorously exerted, he would have relinquished power to a democratically elected leader of Nigeria. There is no doubt that the Gowon's era ranked as one of the best in Nigeria despite the Nigeria Civil War, its effects and the management of the post-war crises. First Assault on Modern Nigeria. Murtala/OBJ: A very interesting old-picture surfaced during the beginning of the last administration of President Obasanjo wherein four admirable future rulers of Nigeria including, Gens. Murtala, Obasanjo, IBB and Abacha were involved in a board game of Checkers or Draft. It very well could have been a more appropriate game of Chess with all of its anticipation and intrigues. The first assault both on Modern Nigeria and her people took place when the duo of Gens. Murtala Muhammed (RIP) and Olusegun Obasanjo displaced Gen. Gowon when he went abroad for important state's matter. Although, the then military coup was bloodless, it nevertheless, once, brutally again set the stage for subsequent coup and counter-coups with blood letting and social and economic destruction of the Nigeria State. When, six months into the administration of Gen. Murtala, a very bloody military coup suddenly cut-short his life, he was survived by his 2nd-in-command, Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo who went on not only to once again stabilize the Nigerian polity, but achieved economic and political progress in a space of over 3 years. (Feb. 13th, 1976--October 1st, 1979). 1st Gen. Obasanjo's Era: Nigeria's attempt at achieving greater economic prosperity via commerce and industrialization gained huge momentum as the growth of both air and sea transportations saw no end. So did the construction of both public and private institutions endured as well as the support of aggressive policy on agricultural development or simply phrased: food sustenance through local production. Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo's military era saw the emergence of many political parties, some of which were exclusive to their ethnic regions, a few others were national in outlook, and the rest were solely dependent upon their founders. The truth is that even if there was rigging in the presidential election of 1979 which ushered Former President Shehu Shagari into power, there was not enough bankable proof that the Late Chief Obafemi Awolowo and his UPN could have won the presidency against the more widely accepted NPN (National Party of Nigeria). (The writer was a supporter of UPN during that period). In summary, Former President Olusegun Obasanjo acted gallantly by relinquishing power in Nigeria to a democratically elected leader in the person of Former President Shehu Shagari. He did not overtly played any Kingfatherism, nor was he alleged to have influenced any emergence of any political candidate in any arms of government or cabinet. Obasanjo withdrew, largely from local politics preferring to concern himself with international events and issues. He allowed the winning party and the oppositions to fashion their policies and govern the nation. According to reports, when Former President Obasanjo left office in 1979, Nigeria Airways had over 30 planes, Nigeria National Shipping Line had over 20 ships, many other federally owned institutions prospered and needed only to be pushed into the next-advance-level. Rather, what transpired was the wanton corruption, nepotism, cronyism and political violence which gave way to the "excuse" used as justification of the abrupt termination of an elected government by a military group in a coup headed by Gens. Muhammadu Buhari and Tunde Idiagbon. Shagari's Era: The Era of the NPN's government led by Alhaji Shehu Shagari saw to the beginning of the destruction of Nigeria's attempt at Industrialization and Agricultural Development or Food Production/ Security. It also witnessed the promotion of mediocrity over excellence in the management of the nations' resources and the massive but illegal reward accruable to the political affiliates. The gross financial mismanagement and rising political violence were the reasons cited for the Second Assault on Modern Nigeria. Second Assault on Modern Nigeri. Buhari/Idiagbon's Era: Gens. Buhari and Idiagbon performed wonders in trying to instill discipline and order which were badly needed in the Nigerian "societies of anything goes." There was utter contempt for the rule of law within the general populace and the elected officials were not a ready example of good behavior amongst people. While, even now, the argument still rages-on as to the merits and demerits of the Buhari's era, this writer still believed that given a chance, the maverick-duo would have succeeded in nurturing the values of orderliness and accountability in us, Nigerians. We could have been way-better for it than what we are now witnessing in Nigeria of today, where practically all things are in a state of emergency. But no matter what, the 2 Generals, Buhari and Idiagbon should not have conspired to terminate a democratically elected government of Alhaji Shehu Shagari in 1984, that is the Second Assault on Modern Nigeria. IBB's Era: Retired but "stepped-aside" Former Military President Ibraheem Badamasi Babaginda was the one who did Nigeria-in, politically, socially and economically. Despite having lofty capitalism ideals and vigorously supporting same, IBB's government refused to genuinely institute and support the curb of economic exploitation, fraud and other vices which normally accompany the openness and surge in entrepreneurial endeavors within any hitherto closed society. As many Nigerians would readily attest to, IBB's government institutionalized corruption and corrupt practices, where all respected persons had a price for willing bidders. At the end of his unending political schemes, he not only was unsuccessful politically as he annulled the adjudged freest election in Nigeria's history, he also allowed his alter-ego, Late Gen. Sanni Abacha to lord it over a civilian Interim leader, Chief Sonekan who failed woefully to accomplish any meaningful goal during office. If any one president or leader had ample opportunity to make Nigeria proud and great on world's stage, it is Gen. IBB who on assumption of office enjoyed the support of all the major components of the Nigeria's power equation. These include support from the major and all traditional rulers, social crusaders, labor leaders and other civil society organizations, economic cum financial power-brokers as well as the main military constituencies. Despite all of these supports for IBB, however, he fumbled in the end by refusing to crown his military presidential sojourn with an orderly transfer of power from himself to a democratically elected candidate of the SDP, Chief M.K.O. Abiola. What legacy/ies IBB left behind would later manifest itself into the sadistic Gen. Sanni Abacha and "his boys," in addition to the already known "IBB boys." Interim Government and Chief Sonekan: This short Era of transitional government, arranged as a "stop-gap measure" between IBB and MKO Abiola/June 12th imbroglio failed, because of the overbearing influence of Late Gen. Sanni Abacha and the raw appetite for power by the power-brokers. How Chief Sonekan readily resigned his position of power beats any pundit's imagination and the reasons better imagined than be believed. Abacha's Era: As soon as Chief Sonekan's Interim governmental arrangement collapsed, most analysts agreed that Nigeria is in for a rough ride of a lifetime as the "most-goggled one," Gen. Sanni Abacha went on rampage, digging Nigeria further into social, economic and political chaos. No attempt will be made by this writer to justify any of the policies or actrocities of the Abacha's regime. If agreed, that IBB killed Nigerian Institutions, Late Gen. Sanni Abacha buried them in deeper than six-feet holes. The legacy left behind by Gen. Abacha just as his mentor and co-collaborator, Gen. IBB is that they both have their different "boys" both in civilian and military circles and sometimes share the use of mutual "boys" for their own selfish ends. Abudulsalam Abubakar's Era: Gen. Abudulsalam's era was also short and straight to the point: the successful conduct of a general election leading to the birth of the Fourth Republic. He succeeded in this endeavor but failed or did not attempt to curb the influence of the emerging potent forces as represented by the PDM group led by Alhaji Atiku, IBB and his Boys and the Abacha Boys. Gen. Abdulsalam himself was not credited with any major alignment within the emerging political space. Obasanjo's Civilian Era: By the time Gen. Obasanjo was inaugurated as President and Head of State of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in 1999, there were clear and unambiguous power-brokers known in local-parlance as Godfathers in Nigerian politics. Both the state and federal legislatures are mostly manned by persons who can be trailed directly and indirectly to the IBB, Abacha or the PDM groups. It is also a known fact that, Gen. Obasanjo has no known "Boys" or major political influence prior to his ascendancy to office, he was actually rescued from the nasty slap of death in the gallows to the main society and on to the ultimate prize of ruling Nigeria again as a democratically elected president. Identifying Nigeria power-brokers and their roles in the scheme of things: I. IBB and his Boys: Gen. IBB was said to be amongst those who rescued Gen. Obsanjo from prison/death, propped him-up for the presidency, supported with cash and kind for his electoral victory and nominated a large numbers of both federal legislators and cabinet members for Obasanjo's government. 2. Abacha and his Boys: They remained in prominence even after the demise of Gen. Abacha due in large part to the financial power accumulated during the era of their benefactor and also in part, due to the "carry-on" effect of both Gen. Abdulsalam and Gen. Obasanjo. They, too, featured in large numbers in both the federal legislature and the new cabinet of President Obasanjo. 3. PDM group and Atiku Abubakar: Vice president Atiku Abubakar himself has asserted numerously the influence wielded by him and his group in the formation of the PDP and the eventual nomination and victory of President Obasanjo in the 1998 presidential elections. For his part, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar became the Vice-president and also ensured that a good percentage of his core-PDM members emerged as federal legislators and cabinet members under the newly formed Obasanjo/ Atiku's government. 4. Buhari and the Core-North, Afenifere and the AD, Ojukwu and Ohanze Indigbo and others: The various groups mentioned above, all have both fair share of members of federal legislatures and proportional representative in the federal cabinet. Obasanjo's first term in office 1999-2003: During President Obasanjo's first term in office, there was a persistent rumour which is that: President Obasanjo agreed to a one-term of 4 years in office after which the power will rotate back to the North of Nigeria. President Obasanjo was busy flying from one foreign capital to another most of the time, thereby leaving behind Vice President Abubakar to run the day-to-day government business. The Vice president was also made the head of both the privatization group and the economic policy group. President Obasanjo got into trouble with the un-cooperatig members of the federal legislature because of not meeting their monetary and or compensatory demands; non-fully utilization of the budgetary awards and for being too harsh with his rethoric and actions on corruption and corrupt practices. All this while, Gen. IBB, and Muhammadu Buhari are covertly scheming to emerge as the next Head of State after Obasanjo's first term in office. In adition to this calculation, is the "promise" as later affirmed by the Vice President Atiku Abubakar that President Obasanjo informed him-Atiku, that he would become the next president after he-Obasanjo has completed a constitutionally allowed 2 term of 4 years each. By the time 2nd term electioneering came to an end for the ruling PDP, it was impossible for IBB to join the presidential contest, and Vice President Atiku has fallen out of favor with President Obasanjo but yet, wielded enormous power within the PDP power-brokers now consisting of massively corrupt governors and their stooges in the corridors of power both in the executive and the legislatures. It was widely reported that about 19 governors of the PDP had aligned with the Vice President and urged him to contest for the presidential primary election against his boss, Obasanjo who had been rejecting him as Vice-candidate in the run-up to the elections of 2003. MOST OF THESE GOVERNORS HAVE BEEN NAILED SINCE 2001 FOR CORRUPTION BY THE ICPC--THE ANTI-CORRUPTION AGENCY. In the end, Obassanjo and Atiku made-up and both won the primary elections and went on to win the presidential elections for the 2nd term in office. By this time, IBB's ambition and the rumoured "pact" with President Obasanjo had suffered a major set-back. Gen. Buhari refused to take a bow and prepared for the next election, especially since he had been crying out loudly on the electoral fraud which took place in that elections. He tied himself up in the electoral legal battle until more that two years later when he finally lost out. By which time, Buhari himself had lost not only the presidency but the natural leadership of his party, ANPP which was now being financially sponsored by some governors within its fold. Why Nigeria needs a Messiah and why Obasanjo might be that Messiah: There are many pundits who have all agreed that Nigeria needs a Messiah, who will deliver her people from the shackels of hunger and deprivation which they are being daily subjected to by the major power brokers in Nigeria prior to the second emergence of President Obasanjo as Head of State. This essay has highlighted above, the role played by the main actors in Nigerian politics post civil-war, and the clarification of the wrong belief that president Obasanjo can somehow (immediately) deviate 180 degrees from the path which those who put him in power charted for him in 1999. For not only was President Obasanjo rescued from jail, he was made a president without both his known financial strength or grassroots support. If President Obasanjo had any official mandate during the first term in office, this writer can bet that it is, to "keep Nigeria One" which he did under the precarious situation he found himself at that time. Nigeria desperately needs a Messiah in the form of a democratically elected president who can both scheme out the hungry power-brokers and at the same time move the ship-of-state forward in a progressive manner. Nigeria needs a Messiah who can wrestle power from the PDM headed by Atiku, IBB and his boys and the Abacha Boys who all are former members of the ruling PDP. Their political intrigues and their devastating corrupt tendencies had wreaked huge damage on the polity. At a point during the first term and after the president had been inundated with damning reports of corruption in the various Local Government across Nigeria, President Obasanjo inaugurated a committee headed by the late Estu Nupe, Alhaji Sanda Ndayako who recommended the abolition of the Local Government Administrations (774 LGA in Nigeria). The truth is that the LGA is virtually independent with its own budget and administrative responsibilities. And almost all of the Local Government Administrators are accused of one financial fraud or another. Nigeria needs a Messiah who can ensure that those who are elected as legislators in both the state and federal assemblies are people of honor who will defend the policies of their political parties, country and people rather than their self interest and the interest of their benefactors alone. For example, why would the PDP controlled federal legislature want to impeach its sitting president of the country because he did not fully utilize the budgetary awards? Why should cabinet nominees have to bribe the senators in order to win confirmations? And why did the federal legislature refuse to genuinely amend the Constitution in order to bring the document to greater efficiency and purpose. Obasanjo's Second term as Civilian President: President Obasanjo realized from his first term in office that he would need a second term in office in order to make a positive change in Nigeria's polity. Therefore, immediately after the inauguration of his second term in office, not only did he engage the services of more technocrats, he instituted a reform program in all sectors of the polity and ensured that his policies are adhered to. The results were fast in coming: Nigeria won partial debt cancellation, settled the burdensome Paris Club debt; the CBN led by Prof. Soludo embarked upon banking and other financial services reform; there is the Maritime Port Reform, Airline Reform etc etc. Nigeria witnessed unprecedented increase in all sectors of the economy and the GDP recorded a 5% yearly increase. There are more local participation in the Oil and Gas sectors, mining and particularly, increase in the Agricultural product exports. President Obasanjo enlarged the spending on the LNG trains (6 trains); Virgin Nigeria became our national carrier with at least 2 other domestic airlines ready to fly the Nigeria-US direct route. In the dying days of President Obasanjo's presidency, Nigeria witnessed the privatization of the remaining government wasteful businesses including Nitel, kaduna and Port harcourt refineries. Also, the Obasanjo's government legalized oil bunkering and issued over 1000 mining licenses. 10 Nigeria banks now featured in the top 1000 banks in the world and some have been able to attract private foreign investors and financial institutions. Nigerian businessmen have also been able to openly participate in foreign investments. As it stands now, Nigeria, despite the other major concerns, have become the darling of emerging markets investment dollars because of the rate of return on investment which stands around 35%. On the micro level, mortgage activities is picking up with speed and we read the other day that some group of banks have come together to float a Credit Bureau, needed for the provision of financial service products on an individual level. Imagine the opportunites in auto-finance, home-finance, equipment leasing and other financial service products which depended on individual credit ratings. How Obasanjo pulled the carpet off the feet of the contending negative forces: President Obasanjo, having identified the reasons why he was "unable to perform" under the first term arrangement, sought to accomplish a couple of things early and head-on in his second term in office. He launched a successful cabinet (even reduced the portfolios in number, further reduction has continued till date), and at the same time began the innoculation of the PDP members. He was very blunt and decisive, he ordered the re-registration of all party members and used the opportunity to deny from the grassroots, the registration of supporters of the various other negative contenders. (This is not to suggest in anyway, that all of President Obasanjo's collaborators are any more better off, with the exception of "a few good men" and some technocrats, almost all of the other appointees in government cannot be fully trusted). President Obasanjo even while still traversing the globe for economic opportunities in behalf of Nigeria, also continued to use the "carrot and stick" approach to government, by being almost too tough on adversaries and non-conformists and at the same time, too lenient or sometimes aloof on matters concerning his admirers or conformist surbodinates. By the time the dust settled on the matter of "political party cleansing" by President Obasanjo, both Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Gen. IBB had been defeated; their grassroots base support weakened and key party surrogates in high offices were edged-out by the emerging "Obasanjo Boys". President Obasanjo achieved a feat: he successfully waded-off the attack of the 3 most potent forces in present day Nigeria. There is the IBB and his Boys who together controlled about 10 political parties. There is the Vice President Atiku Abubakar and his Boys who also continue to scheme as if there is no tomorrow, they too have over 10 political parties in their fold. Out of 50 political parties registered to be voted for in Nigeria's last elections, over 20 or 40% belonged to the same two individuals who with a few others made President Obasanjo what he has presently become. Their grouse is that President Olusegun Obasanjo refused to honor his pact with the both of them. For IBB, President Obasanjo refused to honor the pact of one term in office and him, being the next beneficiary. For Atiku, President Obasanjo has already promised "continuation" after 2 term of 4 years each allowed by the law and him being the next beneficiary. On the outside, but willfully looking-on is Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, who despite of his claim to being a "born again democrat" refused to, never intended to, and willingly coerced the other candidates within his party in other to emerge as flagbearer during their 2 last presidential primary elections. In the AC, all attempts at tom foolery engaged by the party leaders is just that: foolishness, we all know that the party was designed around one person and one person only: VP Atiku. Even as the party sought, and sought after by various other mushroom political parties, it never achieved any major collaboration with any other formidable party. By estimate, there were more than 20 announcements of formation of a mega-party by the opposition before the last elections. All amounted to naught. For the sake of this discourse, if we agreed that President Obasanjo desired a "Third Term" in office and worked tirelessly but covertly for it, it should also be noted that his actions alone, put a spanner in the wheel of both Gen IBB's ambition within the PDP and Vice President Atiku's ambition both within the PDP and outside of it. We recalled how many reporters of repute have tried unsuccessfully to extract the answer from IBB on whether or not he would join the presidential fray and how he had continually refused to be pinned-down, sometimes somehow, saying the President Obasanjo future ambition would be a determinant. Unlike IBB, however, Vice President Atiku launched an orchestrated attacks and counter-attacks beginning with his famous public interview wherein he said, that President Obasanjo has assured him and swear by the Holy Books that he would not seek a Third term in office. Leading to the last general elections, there have been many schemes and counter schemes, sometimes one can predict the next line of action of the various political actors. There were numerous cross-carpeting, defections and counter-defections, killings and counter-killings, and so on and so forth. At one interview, President Obasanjo alluded to the fact that Nigeria does not need more than a couple of political parties, but he was shouted down as a dictator. The ultimate truth should be told: Nigeria's last general elections was designed to fail and everyone who is a participant including us the voters are guilty of one offense or the other. The opposition refused to merge, and also refused to embark upon genuine mobilization of grassroots support, most of their members are known to once belonged to the ruling PDP party but have been displaced. The opposition's main desire is not his success at the polls for he has not done much preparations, rather, his goal is to ensure that chaos reign supreme during the elections proper in other to seek nullification of the votes cast. We read about how all the political parties engaged in massive substitution of candidates in the dying minutes of the deadline allowed for such exercise. At the same time, there were court cases left, right and center on issues about the elections and sometimes candidates' faith depended on last minute court judgement relief. How can any electoral umpire succeed in these circumstances? Prof. Maurice Iwu of INEC may be a villain in many peoples' book, but in mine, he is the rescuer of the Nigerian nation who deserves great commendation despite his many glaring short comings. For as he himself asserted, if not for INEC doggedness, the potent forces of both IBB and VP Atiku were determined for the elections not to take place, thereby plunging Nigeria into avoidable political mess. But unfortunately for President Obasanjo, he alone shouldered the blame of Nigeria/ns wickedness, what about the negative contributions which both the IBB and VP Atiku forces have been making into political development in Nigeria. How can a President Obasanjo prevent the duo of IBB and VP Atiku from getting into power? Obasanjo's political achievements: 1. He was able to reconstitute the PDP from the ground-up. 2. He instituted reforms within the party. 3. He rid PDP of core VP Atiku's supporters. 4. He rid PDP of core IBB's supporters. 5. He displaced regional parties in their strongholds (AD, APGA and, ANPP) 6. He brought the South West and South- South into main stream politics in Nigeria. 7. He ensured the success of his candidate and conducted an open presidential primary elections in the history of Nigeria. (live coverage on television) 8. He campaigned with party members throughout Nigeria. (Sometimes one feels as though that President Obasanjo actually was the one running for the office again.) 9. He ensured that despite all odds, sometimes induced and self-created, sometimes from opposition, Nigeria was still able to conduct two main elections and a re-run in a space of 3 weeks. Prof. Iwu of INEC neglected all antagonists and instead focused on the jobs at hand: The successful conclusion of an epochial event in the history of Nigeria, the transfer of power from one set of government to another with both being democratically elected. 10. He was able to Keep Nigeria One. Post Yar Adua's Inauguration: Those who wishes Former President Obasanjo away from Nigeria's political landscape at this present time are short-sighted and these are the reasons why: The potent forces of both IBB and Atiku and to some extent, Buhari are still very much alive and kicking, their aim now is one and simple: create confusion for Yar' Adua and penetrate his government so that business can continue as ever. Therefore, Former President Obasanjo is right to assume supreme stature within his newly created PDP in other to forestall the emergence of the same cabal who held his government down in his first 4 years in office. To this end, he ensured that between Former governor George Akume of Benue State who after financial compensation both legal and illegal, rewarded himself with a Senate seat and Senator David Mark his ardent supporter, the latter emerged the winner. (Upon the fact that the Senate Presidency belongs to the North Central zone according to the PDP zoning arrangement, he became the candidate of both IBB and VP Atiku as long as he is opposing the candidate of Obasanjo. Does it matter to the opposition as represented by IBB and Atiku that George Akume has a case to answer on financial corruption in his last assignment? Obasanjo also ensured that the speakership of the house of reps. fell on his trusted candidate. If it is true that a Modern Nigeria is emerging both economically and now politically, the only actor who has featured in it in different fora but in same capacity and at both times, distinguished himself both by his sadistic perception but in the end, performed noticeable wonders. And also, by his tenacity and sense of commitment to the Nigerian State, the person is President Olusegun Obasanjo . If President Yar Adua's government is successful in propelling Nigeria into the 21st Century, by this, I mean the provision of constant supply of electricity and security of lives and property, Former President Obasanjo would have achieved the title of the "Father of Modern Nigeria" once bestowed upon him. And in my books, he would in addition be called, Obasanjo, the Messiah, who God had used by rescuing him from the jaws of death into the throne of Gold and Diamond and unto victory over constant battles against forces of darkness who wants to continue unabated. Adebayo Animashaun, the writer is a believer in the "President Obasanjo School of Thought."
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